This is Democracy – Episode 266: European Democracies

[00:00:00] Intro: This is democracy, a podcast about the people of the United States, a podcast about citizenship, about engaging with politics and the world around you, a podcast about educating yourself on today’s important issues and how to have a voice in what happens next.

[00:00:24] Jeremi Suri: Welcome to our new episode of This is Democracy.

This week we are going to discuss the state of democracy in Europe, the region of the world where many would argue democracy begins as a form of government, as a form of social organization. And a part of the world today that’s going through a recession. Many elements of turmoil and change in its struggle to maintain and improve democracy across countries, countries that are quite diverse, but countries that share a common commitment, at least institutionally, to a European wide democracy.

We’re very fortunate to be joined by one of the leading thinkers and rising politicians in this complex and important space. This is our friend and prior guest, Isabel Kadamatori. Isabel was an elected member of the German Bundestag and remains an elected member of the German Bundestag from Mannheim.

She was elected in 2021, and we’re hoping and expecting that she will be in the Bundestag and in other roles for quite a long time. She served as a city councillor in Mannheim, And she’s a member of the Social Democratic Party of Germany, which leads the current coalition government. Isabel, thank you for joining us today.

[00:01:36] Isabel Cademartori: Oh, thank you so much. Quite an introduction.

[00:01:39] Jeremi Suri: We always set the expectations high. And, uh, we’re of course joined as well by Mr. Zachary Suri. Zachary, what is your poem titled today?

[00:01:50] Zachary Suri: My poem is entitled Sighing. Okay, uh, let’s hear

[00:01:54] Jeremi Suri: it.

[00:01:54] Zachary Suri: Europe, I hear you sighing in the torn placards that dotted your lampposts and windowsills, one face after another, torn and mangled, some even in the flesh.

Europe, I hear you sighing, you say all is lost, you shout over yourself, scream two different slogans at the same time, same place, shouting breathlessly in the same way. Europe, I hear you are bursting at the seams, that there are too many of us coming and not enough going, but it seems to me less like an explosion waiting to happen and more like a slow death from the inside.

Europe, I hear you sighing. It is loud and no longer subtle as if you were trying to say, be careful or we will tear it all down for a laugh.

[00:02:44] Jeremi Suri: Zachary, there’s so much in your poem. References to immigration, references to political campaigns. Uh, what motivated this poem?

[00:02:51] Zachary Suri: Well, it comes out of, I Well, when I was in Leipzig last week or really two weeks ago, it was sort of the height of the European election campaign here in Germany, and I was lucky enough to see Bundeskanzler Olaf Scholz give a campaign speech in Leipzig, which was really interesting.

the region that Leipzig is in had also seen a lot of attacks on politicians that were campaigning. And so that was part of what motivated it. And then also just sort of seeing the way that, how sort of colorful and competing and contrasting the different sort of campaign messages were here, but also the sort of like deep sense of resentment that I think many of us saw in the result.

[00:03:35] Jeremi Suri: Yeah. Isabel, how would you describe the results of these elections? These are the elections, of course, for the European wide parliament, which in many ways is one of the largest, if not the largest, democratic parliament in the world. How would you describe these elections?

[00:03:50] Isabel Cademartori: Well, you know, it has been sobering.

And, um, I think one has to differentiate between the German results and the European results. So the European results overall are not as bad, maybe, as commentary suggests. So, um, for example, for my party, the Social Democrats, they lost, uh, three seats overall, which is not, not that much. And, uh, uh, the European People Party, which is, you know, the, um, uh, center, uh, right conservative, moderate conservative parties, um, they gained 13 seats.

So there was definitely a shift to the more conservative, uh, parties, but, uh, overall the democratic parties still have, uh, a pretty comfortable majority in the European Parliament. The biggest losers on the European level were definitely the liberals. uh, renew, um, is their coalition called, and the Greens.

And that, I think, is more so a result of their poor results in, in certain key countries where they used to be very strong. Especially the Greens were very strong in Germany and they lost. heavily in this election. And, uh, the liberals, I’ve, I believe lost heavily in the, um, Netherlands and other, um, states, uh, in that area.

So that’s why they have seen heavy losses. And the right wing and the, um, right, uh, the extreme right, uh, gained seats, uh, no doubt about it. But, um, Overall, the shift hasn’t been as big as we maybe feared in the beginning.

[00:05:37] Zachary Suri: Zachary? One of the most disturbing trends that has certainly been remarked upon a lot here in German media, and certainly I found quite troubling for obvious reasons, uh, was that a large number of young people in Germany, and I think in the rest of Europe as well, voted for extreme right wing politics.

parties, many of whom had been voting, as you said, for the Greens or the Liberals in the past. Why do you think that is? And how do you think the sort of mainstream parties can do a better job appealing to young voters?

[00:06:08] Isabel Cademartori: Yeah, I mean, what we saw in this election is that the young voters voted the extreme right party in Germany, the AfD, in the same amounts that their overall result was.

So I think about 16%, but since the vote of the young was so divided, they were like the, I think the second strongest or the third strongest party among young voters, because no party really dominates with young voters. If you take a total of all the, you know, more center left parties, there is still a pretty comfortable majority of young voters who, who vote to the left.

But what is very clear is that they do not at all, uh, align with the messages of the traditional big parties and, uh, while the greens, uh, in the last European election in 2019, uh, were able to, um, really gather a big youth vote, a lot of young people this time around are not comfortable, not, uh, interested in voting for the Greens.

And they also voted for a lot of smaller parties that, um, you know, are newer parties, non aligned candidates with, uh, You know, slightly progressive, but overall maybe unclear and not so political messaging.

[00:07:25] Jeremi Suri: Isabel, what, what strikes me and I think, uh, has received a fair amount of commentary is that while, as you say, um, the election kind of kept things where they were at the larger European level, But a small change in the number of seats in Germany and in France, in the two of the perhaps most important countries in Europe, you did see the right do very well.

Le Pen’s party in France, which has led to an early election coming in France in a few weeks. And of course, in your own Germany, where I have the have the numbers in front of me, the AfD, the right wing party scored 16, 16 percent of the vote. The SPD, your party, the party that leads the domestic coalition scored only 14% of the vote.

The CDU, the conservative party scored 30%. Uh, so they did better than anyone else, but it’s quite striking. And, and for a historian who studied the, the history of the right in Germany, scary to think that the, the right wing party did better in this election than the the center left party. How do you explain that?

[00:08:28] Isabel Cademartori: I mean, we have seen high, um. Results, but also even more so in the, um, polls, very strong polls for the AFD since the beginning of the year, at some point they were over 20%, comfortably over 20%. So that’s why 16 at this, from that point of view, doesn’t seem. As terrible as it could have been, we were expecting high AFD results, even though it’s still shocking because in the weeks leading up to the election, a lot of scandals about the AFD came out, like leading the two leading politicians leading the European election were entangled in scandals of spying for Russia and China.

And, uh, there’s very like strong evidence that that was actually the case. So the, this authoritarian, uh, relationship, uh, that the, we’ve always said the AFD has with foreign powers, enemy powers in case of Russia, it’s clearer than ever. And still they get a large part of the, the gate that got the most, the word most successful in East Germany and all the East German country, uh, states.

Um, they were number one and in the Southern States, which is very interesting too, in, uh, Bavaria and Baden Württemberg, where I come from, they were on, uh, second place. And Bavaria and Baden Württemberg, the southern states of Germany are the wealthiest states of Germany as well. And so I think that it’s important to, when we analyze this results and why the AFD is so strong, not just to have this, um, explanation to quote Hillary Clinton of deplorables, uh, who are, uh, you know, uh, too poor or too uneducated to really know what they’re doing.

But, um, but look more maybe towards cultural and political reasons, social reasons why, um, why people feel drawn to them. And I’m, I mean, the, all the post election polls tell us that immigration was a big issue. But also the war on Ukraine and the waning support for the war. And I would maybe add this to issues to an overall, um, kind of anti West, Western sentiment that is especially prevalent in the former, you know, East German states.

But also just, I think as a result that the propaganda coming from the international right Uh, that is fueled by Russia and other supporters, uh, has been very effective, uh, in convincing people that the liberal democracy model, uh, the open, uh, globalization and, uh, diverse society, uh, it’s not working for them.

[00:11:26] Jeremi Suri: Why do they think that, Isabel? I mean, to me, as an outsider who visits Germany quite often and studies its history, it’s It seems to me evident that so many people, including in the East, are living better than they’ve ever lived before. Better health care, better food access, uh, cleaner environment. Uh, and, and they’re certainly better off now than being under Russian, uh, control during the Cold War.

So, so why is there this resentment? Why are they anti Western?

[00:11:55] Isabel Cademartori: That’s a very good question. I mean, there are, um, uh, historians, uh, who, who analyze this, who say that people culturally growing up in an authoritarian system, there’s just this expectation that the state will solve any problems. So there’s a very passive attitude that they have towards problems in society or challenges.

And, and when the failed, uh, when the state doesn’t Solve their problems. Um, they blame, you know, democracy and the whole system and don’t see themselves so much as active parts of it. So that’s maybe one, uh, part of, uh, of the explanation. I think that, um, we’re, uh, this is especially maybe important for the European election.

We are in a transition phase, uh, in terms of climate policies. And, uh, everyone kind of realizing, so we are transforming our society and through our government, this has not become, this has become an issue that’s really touching people’s lives in a way that it had not before, before we had this climate discussion.

And in the last European election, it was a very prevalent discussion with Fridays for Futures, a big youth climate organization marching on the streets, like millions and thousands of young people on the streets for, um, uh, you know, advocating for, um, better climate policies. Now that we’ve implemented some of these policies in, and at the same time living in a time of a lot of insecurity.

Uh, because of the war in, in, in Ukraine, because of inflation, because of, you know, things COVID, you know, we still just got out of it. And then also transforming, uh, society to a degree where people are really feeling it. So we did a law that, um, mandates that in the future people will not be allowed to buy, uh, oil and gas, uh, heating systems.

So that poses a very specific and very, um, real life challenge to many people, how I’m going to heat my home. So it’s not an abstract discussion of how do you become carbon neutral, it’s a very, uh, concrete discussion of how Are there windmills and solar parks being built in my, uh, state that I don’t want?

And do I have to invest in an electric car, in a new heating system? And, and this, all this changes at once, I think are very overwhelming to some people.

[00:14:29] Jeremi Suri: Gotcha. So, so this is a, this is a problem of people seeing their lives that they take for granted, the stability in their lives threatened.

[00:14:38] Isabel Cademartori: Yes. I mean, we came out of 15 years of prosperity and very calm, you know, political landscape overall for Germany, uh, with Angela Merkel leading the country, not asking too much of citizens.

Just to trust her and she’s kind of, you know, manage everything. And, um, and now we had political change and the war started, the prices went up, the Russian gas stopped flowing to Germany and there’s like so many things happening at once and we coming out of COVID, which also accelerated a lot of these changes.

And I think that in a, There’s a sense of great insecurity and also pessimism about the future right now.

[00:15:22] Jeremi Suri: Yes. Yes. Zachary?

[00:15:24] Zachary Suri: You mentioned the impact that the election results might have on climate policy in Europe. How do you see this sort of rightward trend in European politics, at least in this period in time?

uh, affecting European wide policy moving forward, particularly on climate change.

[00:15:42] Isabel Cademartori: That’s going to be interesting to watch now, how the new, um, or maybe the old commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, who’s a German conservative, very moderate conservative, who, um, was the, the leader of this European Green Deal.

Uh, which, uh, summarizes a lot of this climate policies will, uh, you know, form a new coalition and what policy she’s going to propose because the conservatives went into this campaign very much basically saying goodbye to most of the more ambitious climate policies in the year questioning the European green deal altogether.

So I think there’s a real danger that it’s going to be at least, you know, taken down a couple of notches. I’m somewhat hopeful because she needs. The Social Democrats and maybe the Greens to form a coalition that they won’t be able to dismantle everything, but they’re probably gonna lose a lot of pace and momentum in this, uh, European Green Deal initiative and the climate policies.

And it just goes to show that conservatives are really not reliable when it comes to these issues. Like I said, 2019, they also were pretending to be in favor of climate change, of climate policies, because that was the pressure on the street. And now that the pressure is coming, you know, from the other side, Uh, they immediately, you know, switched gears and were like, Oh, no, no, this is all too much.

And this is, uh, basically pretending that we can reach our climate goals by not doing anything.

[00:17:19] Jeremi Suri: Right. Climate is not a core issue for the CDU is what you’re saying, I think. Think as it is for, for other, other parties. One of the things that, that has always struck me, Isabel, uh, as a source of stability in, in Germany in particular, is that you, you have coalition governments, uh, such as the government you have now, which includes the SPD and other partners.

That often means that even when a fringe party, like the the far right a FD. Does well, they’re not able to be part of the government, you can have other parties forming a coalition. It’s different from the US, where it’s one party or the other. Is that still the case? Is it still pretty firm in Germany that even the CDU would not form a coalition with the AFD?

I’ve noticed the AFD and others have been excluded from coalitions at the European level. Is that still true at the German level as well?

[00:18:10] Isabel Cademartori: That’s what the CDU is still saying, that they abide by that rule. What’s interesting in this election, we have seen a new party emerge, an authoritarian left wing party, led by Sarah Wagenknecht, who was one of the leaders of the traditional left party, but has now formed her own party because she was not in line with the more progressive policies of the left party.

So she’s now proposing basically an anti immigration pro Russia, but a socialist economic policies party, in contrast to AFD, who are also anti immigration and pro Russia, but are more liberal or, uh, you know, classical liberal or libertarian economic policies. And, and she was quite successful in East Germany as well.

And what we’re going to see now, we have three state elections coming up in East Germany in the next couple of months. And we expect, um, right now, at least we have to fear and expect that the AFD is going to do very well in those state elections and making it very difficult to form governments around the AFD.

And, uh, the CDU at this moment is, uh, debating and struggling whether they would form a coalition with this, you know, authoritarian leftist party of Saar Wagenknecht.

[00:19:40] Jeremi Suri: Right, right. So there’s authoritarian threats on both the left and the right, obviously. What is the SPD going to do? What is your party’s strategy moving forward?

[00:19:52] Isabel Cademartori: that’s a great question. I mean, , obviously, we are very, we are in a very tough spot right now. We are in this very unpopular government coalition with the Greens and the Liberal party, uh, which, uh, has a difficult task of, uh, passing a budget. And that has to entail, has to propose 20 billion euros cuts in the budget.

And that is kind of what is immediately ahead of us, but it seems like a technical question, but it isn’t because it obviously is deeply connected to the policies that we then will propose next year coming national elections. So if we start cutting social programs or like the, um, our liberal coalition partners wants us to do, or they want us to cut pensions.

For example, that would be a very difficult proposition for us to go into the election year, um, as well as cutting on all the security in or outward security, um, spending. So, uh, I think right now we, uh, are kind of, um, having to deal with that problem and pressuring the chancellor to, uh, put pressure on them on the other hand to, to, to, to agree on a budget that represents our political priorities.

So we then may go into national election next year, you know, with a, with a solid proposition of, we are the party who, uh, will give security in terms of social security, but also physical security to the country. And the chancellor represents this. Measured safe and not, you know, uh, unhinged or emotional person, which I think you can say many things about like Charles.

But he’s definitely not that. No. While the city, you on the other hand, we I suspect we’ll, um, have the party leader, um, uh, as their, um, chancellor candidate with who is a very, um, unpopular, uh, politician in Germany is very much known for, uh, a libertarian heart. right economic proposals and a kind of an unhinged and difficult character.

So, um, even though Olaf Scholz is really not popular at the moment, uh, the opposition leader manages to be even less popular.

[00:22:21] Jeremi Suri: Right. To some extent, Isabel, this, this sounds like a classic case of the, the supporters of democracy being steady and, uh, technocratic and, uh, familiar people. Uh, and then the exciting.

Figures are also the threatening figures. I mean, you could argue that in the United States, you could argue that in France, that there’s a similarity between Schultz and Macron and Biden. On the similarity in the authoritarian challengers. Is that a problem? You think for democracy that democracy is the steady but less exciting option?

[00:22:53] Isabel Cademartori: Yes, I think it’s especially a problem with young people and their disillusionment with traditional parties have been has been very evident in this election when they start voting for, you know, fringe parties because they obviously don’t see anyone or any person or political idea that catches their imagination or somehow gives them hope or optimism for the future.

And I think for us, that’s a very tough spot to be in such a negative and pessimistic environment and mood in the country. Because as a progressive party, that’s not, you know, where we Uh, but I do think that we have some work to do as social Democrats in terms of, um, really finding our place in this new political landscape, which we probably, it’s something we have been struggling for a while now, but it was kind of forgotten somewhat because of the election win we had in the national election.

having the chancellor, uh, which is something that we didn’t expect, you know, going into last national elections. But since then, we haven’t been very successful in winning any elections. So it shows that there is a, a more substantive issue line beneath that we haven’t addressed. At the same time, I will say that in the UK, we expect a huge labor win this year.

[00:24:18] Jeremi Suri: Yes. Yes.

[00:24:20] Isabel Cademartori: So I think that the, the, the political landscape is just so volatile, you know, you have to go from year to year to year. It’s really difficult to have long term strategy at this point.

[00:24:30] Jeremi Suri: Right. It certainly seems to differ from country to country. You could look at Poland, uh, where the parties of democracy did well and, and certainly where it looks like the left will do well in England and then, but it looks different in France and in, and in Germany.

Uh, Zachary, you had a question.

[00:24:45] Zachary Suri: Yes, I wanted to ask, speaking of unpopular incumbents, how do you think, first of all, that the election in November in the United States will affect European policy, and will the results of the election in June here, in the European election, make a sort of unified European response if Trump is elected?

less feasible.

[00:25:06] Isabel Cademartori: Well, I actually still expect Biden to be elected. I try not to spend too much time thinking about the worst case. Obviously, it’s going to have a huge impact, especially pertaining to the issue of Ukraine and foreign policy overall, which right now is so closely aligned between Germany and, uh, And the U.

S. But I do think we do have the strength right now as NATO and, uh, you know, Europe to, to, to come up with a unified response. At least it has been possible so far. Uh, just today, new sanctions package was decided upon between, you know, the heads of states in Europe. So depending obviously also what’s going to happen in France, we still have, you know, a few question marks there, but.

I think, uh, Europe can still, you know, govern even if Biden should not be reelected, which I really do not hope it’s going to happen. However, I do not know if we would be able to make it more specific to offset the, um, uh, the, the military assistance that the U S is giving to Ukraine. If, if Trump were to stop that assistance, I’m very skeptical that Europe would be able to step in and just do it by themselves.

[00:26:31] Jeremi Suri: I agree. I agree. And, uh, it does strike me that, um, even a unified European response, uh, it’s hard to, it’s hard to know how that would influence Trump, who is probably, you know, More influenced by Vladimir Putin than he is by European partners. And so it’s, it’s hard to imagine what that, what that would look like.

Um, and, and maybe that, that leads us to our final question, Isabel. As you know, we always like to close on an optimistic note. We like to use history to give ourselves hope. Uh, that’s our goal every week and in our newsletter and in our podcast. And there is a lot to be hopeful for because one looks at Europe today.

and compares it to other difficult moments. And even though there are political dynamics that you’ve described brilliantly, uh, dynamics that are threatening democracy, in some ways, Europe as a continent is more stable and, um, more unified, particularly in its response to Russian aggression, um, than it’s ever been before.

So what do you see as the hopeful signs that democratic parties like your own party can build upon going forward?

[00:27:39] Isabel Cademartori: Well, I do think that we have to take the long view on this, and these are very challenging times. And, uh, we have, uh, you know, the climate issue is not just a question of, is it your party’s issue or the other party’s issue?

Something that’s really, it has to be everyone’s issue because we feel it. And so obviously that makes people very scared about the future. And we have war. In Ukraine, we have war in the Middle East and who knows where else is going to continue. So if you take all those really difficult factors, I think our economies and our democracies are still holding up.

And uh, we experienced in the beginning of the year in Germany when it came out that the AFD was having secret meetings about, uh, you know, deportation plans for immigrants and people like me who are, you know, descendant of immigrants. Thousands of people went, people went to the streets, took to the streets and protested against the AfD.

And I mean millions, actually, we had the largest protests we’ve ever seen in the, in German history in some, um, places and even some small towns when there’s normally not that much protest going on, people gather. So there is a very strong democratic foundation. Still, I believe in our society that is somewhat frustrated about the whole political, you know, um, back and forth and the, and the struggle of Democrats to agree and be effective in their policies.

So I think that, um, we can do better for ourselves and just, if we can prove and show that Democrat, Democratic parties and democracy can deliver. Um, then better times will come as well.

[00:29:31] Jeremi Suri: That makes sense. Zachary, you’ve been traveling around Germany again this summer, and, uh, it’s quite extraordinary to think about the places you have visited and the dark and difficult histories, uh, of those locations.

As you discussed last week on the podcast, you’ve been in Leipzig, and we’re at the site of the final battle of World War II, as well as many Napoleonic battles and various other terrible Terrible experiences. You’re in Berlin now, uh, visiting all the sites commemorating and, uh, forcing us to learn the lessons of the past.

Um, what’s your perspective? What makes you hopeful visiting Germany now?

[00:30:07] Zachary Suri: That’s a good question. I don’t know. I think what makes me hopeful is, as Isabel said, it’s, uh, having the sort of knowledge that, like, we’ve been through very difficult times, and that even, uh, in a moment when it seems like we are losing confidence in our institutions, that actually our institutions still have a lot of strength left in them.

And that, uh, if we sort of engage in our political systems, and, uh, and sort of dedicate ourselves to public service in the way that all of us should, then we can, um, make a difference, and we can also help be a part of strengthening our institutions. Um, I think that makes me hopeful, um, I think also just, uh, meeting so many different people.

Uh, from different backgrounds and seeing how, uh, people sort of coexist, um, effectively and live and work, uh, together, um, around the world. I think, uh, it’s, it’s startling to me sometimes spending a lot of time here, how similar my daily life and the people I meet here seem, uh, back home. And of course there are major differences and that’s what, you know, keeps bringing me here.

Um, But I also think that in some ways people around the world actually have, have a lot in common. And a lot of our hopes are the same as well.

[00:31:24] Jeremi Suri: Well, and it strikes me that as, as, uh, someone who, you know, is Jewish, you’re, you’re being comfortable in Germany. It’s quite an extraordinary thing, isn’t it?

[00:31:32] Zachary Suri: Yes.

No, I mean, it’s a historical miracle. And I think you’re right that that makes me hopeful every, every day, certainly. It’s

[00:31:39] Isabel Cademartori: going really well. And if we win the European Cup, I think the mood is going to swiftly change.

[00:32:01] Jeremi Suri: Absolutely, that will help. I have

[00:32:03] Zachary Suri: some bold words to say when you played Scotland and Hungary.

[00:32:10] Jeremi Suri: And I think there’s a serious point here. You know, uh, democracy is not about easy times. Democracy is about building institutions and hobbits that withstand challenges. And these moments of, um, difficulty that Isabel has described so well, They also remind us how far we’ve come. They remind us how much is at stake and our institutions so far have proven that they can work, they can withstand these difficulties if people get involved.

And I think it’s leadership from people like you, Isabel, and optimism and engagement from young people like you, Zachary, that make it possible for our institutions to survive and evolve. And that’s, that’s the promise of democracy, not utopia. But the ability to muddle through one way or another. Yes.

Yes, exactly. Exactly. Exactly. Isabel, uh, thank you so much, uh, for joining us. I hope all of our listeners will follow you. Uh, Isabel is an international filmmaker. figure of importance, Isabel Calamitore of the German Bundestag. Uh, Zachary, thank you for joining us today and sharing your poem. I want to remind our listeners that if the podcast is not enough for you, we also have a daily newsletter now that covers issues and provides background and additional reasons for knowledge and hope, democracy and hope, or what we’re trying to study and trying to encourage.

Uh, and we want to thank, uh, Uh, most of all, our loyal listeners for joining us for this episode of This is Democracy.

[00:33:47] Outro: This podcast is produced by the Liberal Arts ITS Development Studio and the College of Liberal Arts at the University of Texas at Austin. The music in this episode was written and recorded by Harris Codini. Stay tuned for a new episode every week. You can find This is Democracy on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and Stitcher. See you next time.