This is Democracy – Episode 219: Chinese Protests

[00:00:00] Intro: This is Democracy, a podcast about the people of the United States, a podcast about citizenship, about engaging with politics and the world around you. A podcast about educating yourself on today’s important issues and how to have a voice in what happens next.

[00:00:29] Jeremi: Welcome to our new episode of This Is Democracy. Today we are going to discuss the protests and political upheaval in China today. We’ve had prior episodes where we have discussed the strategic dilemmas surrounding, uh, Chinese military expansion and where we’ve talked about other issues related to East Asian security. But today we’re going to talk about what’s happening inside.

[00:00:52] Jeremi: And I’m sure, uh, most of our listeners have followed this story, at least in part, uh, over the last, uh, few weeks, we’ve seen a rise in [00:01:00] crescendo of, uh, protest activities throughout China. Uh, what they mean, where they come from and what effect they will have. Uh, that will be our discussion today related to the changes in China that are happening before our.

[00:01:14] Jeremi: We’re joined by, uh, one of the foremost scholars of contemporary China in the United States. Uh, former colleague and a good friend, uh, Joshua Eisenman. Uh, professor Eman is a, an

[00:01:27] Joshua: associate professor

[00:01:28] Jeremi: of global affairs at the University of Notre Dame. Uh, his research focuses on political economy, Chinese development, foreign relations in China, particularly China’s relations with Africa, but also domestic developments in China.

[00:01:42] Jeremi: Uh, he’s written in all the top academic journals, including World Development, the Journal of Contemporary China. Cold War history, uh, and he’s published widely in Foreign Affairs, wall Street Journal Foreign Policy. He’s been quoted extensively in the Washington Post and the New York Times. He’s one of the key authorities in the United [00:02:00] States for think tanks, journalists and policy makers on China.

[00:02:04] Jeremi: And he is written two fantastic books. And he has a third book on the way, uh, China and Africa, A Century of Engagement, which he co-wrote with former Ambassador David Shin. And, uh, my favorite Eisenman book, red China’s Green Revolution, uh, which really unpacks the nature of agricultural and economic change in China over the last, uh, 30 to 40 years now.

[00:02:27] Jeremi: And it’s a wonderful title. Red China’s Green Revolution kind of poet. Zach, don’t you think? Yes. Yes, very much. Josh, thank you so much for joining us today.

[00:02:36] Joshua: It’s a great pleasure to be here. And, um, the new book is coming out, this or next year is on, um, China’s relations with Africa, the political and security relationship.

[00:02:47] Joshua: Um, and that’s with Ambassador David Shin. So really excited, um, about that one as well. Um, but of course your dissertation book is always Your Baby, so the Red Chinese Green Revolution is always the closest to my heart as well, so I [00:03:00] share your poetic senti. Well, uh,

[00:03:02] Jeremi: excellent Josh, and we will certainly have you on and, and maybe Ambassador Shin too when the new book comes out.

[00:03:07] Jeremi: Um, before we turn to our discussion of, uh, the protests in China and related political activities, uh, Josh, we have of course, Mr. Zachary Siri, uh, scene setting poem. What’s the title of your poem today, Zachary? A blank sheet of paper. And that of course, refers to the blank sheets of paper that the protestors have been holding up at many of their rallies in China, correct?

[00:03:28] Jeremi: Yes, that’s correct. Let’s hear it

[00:03:32] Zachary: on a blank sheet of paper. Nothing is said, nothing is forgiven. And though in the raining wintry streets, in our tattered coats, we may feel every gust like some sweeping force, as every movement must be some sweeping force of history. The paper does not bend. It does not tear.

[00:03:53] Zachary: It is dry despite the weight of all that has not been allowed to be said. There [00:04:00] are such moments when the whole of the great city size and licks its wounds and refuses to forget. There are such moments when the sounds are so silent, the streets so empty that they seem artificial. A reminder of all our freedoms yet to be.

[00:04:18] Zachary: There are such moments when my eyes, when the eyes of our people are filled so greatly with tears that all the illusions fall like curtains, and we are revealed faces isolated in the cold window, grasping for something meaningless to believe in. On the blank sheets of paper, sheet by sheet, like candles in the fading light.

[00:04:42] Zachary: Nothing is said, nothing is condemned. Nobody’s ghost is praised on the blank sheets of paper, nothing is written. No character submits to meaning. No words are allowed to become inhuman. On the blank sheet of paper, nothing is found. [00:05:00] Nothing but a blank indifference, nothing but a great determination. I too would like my sheet of paper to stay blank.

[00:05:07] Zachary: This time I will not write verses. This time I will not sing Dges. This time I will say nothing. Say nothing until everything can be said.

[00:05:21] Jeremi: So you’ve really meditated on these blank sheets of paper here, Zachary. Why are they so meaningful to you? Well, I

[00:05:26] Zachary: think they represent the real challenge that these protests pose to the regime in China, in that this blank sheet of paper is not an expression of ideology, but an expression of solidarity and compassion.

[00:05:39] Zachary: Uh, that that isn’t connected, uh, to the grand, grand millennial history of the regime or, or, or any sort of. Easy political category that can be censored or, or, or cracked down upon. Mm.

[00:05:52] Jeremi: Josh, I’m, I’m curious, before we get into our detailed discussion of the protests and, and your, your insights on that, [00:06:00] as someone who has studied China and been to China so many times, as you have, um, do these blank sheets of paper that the students and other protestors are holding up, do they strike you as meaningful in ways similar to what Zachary’s.

[00:06:14] Joshua: Yes. And first of all, let me say that was wonderful, Zachary. I really appreciated that. And um, I have a blank sheet of paper on my office store, um, which is, um, I guess luckily or unluckily as one would see it right above a stairway. So many people have to walk by it. And, um, and so I have one up there. I guess one question is, um, with the protest dying down and you know, how long to keep it there, um, and, but it, you know, it’s been there and you know, there it will stay at least for now.

[00:06:46] Joshua: So I do think it’s a very powerful symbol. Um, but you know, the thing to add here, I think that’s important is that it, it comes from a tradition in China. Um, I actually, I wrote an article, um, a few years ago about a [00:07:00] phenomenon, you know, in Chinese, the, the word for China there, there’s a few words for it actually.

[00:07:05] Joshua: And one of them, um, actually translates as my. Ua. And so you’ll see actually sometimes even in very formal writings, people will not write or China. They’ll write ua. Um, and sometimes in speaking people also will say ua. So they’ll, they’ll say, my country, my country is inherently China. Um, but there was a phenomenon a few years ago where people were saying, uh, your country, so they were saying, niwa, um, niwa is just your country.

[00:07:33] Joshua: So, um, basically disavowing and saying, no, that issue that you’re talking. It’s not about my country, that’s about your country and distancing themselves for it from it. And that was actually quite hard forens to pick up on for a while anyway. Um, because it’s just the characters, you and, and country and those are not, um, words which are necessarily inherently bad and can actually be used together sometimes quite innocuously.

[00:07:55] Joshua: So, um, there is a history to this kind of. Pushback in China, [00:08:00] subtle pushback. Um, even right now, the kind of praising of Jin the, the maybe over praising, if you will, of Jin, um, in some ways is a kind of criticism of the harshness of the censorship of the current regime, uh, with Jin notoriously, um, opening up the, the New York Times website.

[00:08:18] Joshua: Um, and it remained open for years. Um, of course not open anymore. But anyway, just to add that kind of. This is that as the regime kind of squeezes, um, the, you know, the people find a way, right, uh, to, uh, to kind of conduct, um, a kind of, you know, what we would call the weapons of the week, right? Yes, yes. The, the kind of foot dragging, the, the rumors, the, the things.

[00:08:46] Joshua: You know, we see often when people don’t have formal power, um Right. We respond to, and this isn’t, this is a great one because, you know, it’s, it’s kind of hard to arrest somebody for holding a piece of paper. But I did see, um, just one [00:09:00] comment on the one last comment on this, that there was, um, something circulating.

[00:09:03] Joshua: I dunno if it’s genuine or not. But apparently there was a, a police, uh, instruction to stop selling reams of paper to like unscrupulous characters or something. . As, as if you could stop every coffee shop, you know. Stop. Sir. That’s an A four. Put it down. Right? Right. No more paper. No more paper.

[00:09:23] Jeremi: Uh, just, just to, uh, explain the j Jimin reference for our, for our listeners, J Jimin was the, uh, leader of China.

[00:09:30] Jeremi: Uh, what, what year is Josh

[00:09:32] Joshua: again? Oh gosh. Put me on the spot there During the Bill Clinton years. Right, so two thousands, right? Yeah. I mean the early, uh, twos and late nineties basically when I kind of came up, um, as a China hand. Maybe I should begin by saying that he just, you know, he just passed away, right?

[00:09:49] Joshua: Sending condolences, um, you know, to, to. The people in China and, and his, his, uh,

[00:09:55] Jeremi: memorial service and commemorating his death is, has, as you said, [00:10:00] been, uh, used by some as a way of implicitly criticizing the current leadership, which is much more of a closed leadership, much more of a hard line leadership gen than Gen Zins.

[00:10:10] Jeremi: Is that correct?

[00:10:11] Joshua: You know, it’s, it’s, it’s interesting because Zein was a party man as well, right? And he led China after the 89 Tiananmen Crackdown. So Chung Zein was, um, you know, himself. Willing to use force as necessary. But, um, one thing was he was much more friendly to the west, much more interested in engaging the west, much more engaging as a, as maybe a person in terms of, you know, his demeanor.

[00:10:36] Joshua: Um, and within his, uh, time and office, there was a kind of balancing of power among different factions within the cpc, which definitely. You know, it led to kind of corruption for terror, but it also led to a kind of cracks within the regime, which made it possible to do and say things in ways that, um, don’t really, or which are not possible today.

[00:10:59] Jeremi: Right, [00:11:00] right. And, and I think that’s a good spot. Josh to transition to talking about the current regime and, uh, it’s zero Covid policy, because that’s been something that the current regime has done that we didn’t see, of course before. We didn’t have covid in Jins or Hugin TAs, uh, period of leadership.

[00:11:16] Jeremi: But, but just explain as, as a, as someone who’s followed this closely, what, what has the, the Zero Covid policy meant in practice in.

[00:11:25] Joshua: That’s a, it’s, it’s a good question because it’s, it’s complicated. But let me begin by saying that zero covid enforcement has been, to some degree, uneven across the country.

[00:11:35] Joshua: Um, because China’s a very big country and it, you know, when there have been cases, it’s, it’s tightened up and then loosened when it’s not so, it, it’s, it’s hard. Um, so what I’ll do is I’ll describe it generally speaking, but at any one moment, in any one place, things may be somewhat. So of course that in mind, and then there’s, you know, the idea, um, you know, that there is a lot of Covid theater going [00:12:00] on, right?

[00:12:00] Joshua: I saw images of people, you know, driving with a Jeep through the woods, disinfecting trees and disinfecting of cars and testing a laptop. That was, that was funny to see if the laptop had covid, right? Things like that, which are more theater, I think, than actual, uh, help, um, in practice in terms of the scientific effect of it all, but, So let’s, zero Covid is a policy.

[00:12:26] Joshua: I would say you could break it down into three aspects. Um, the political ideology, the security aspects, and the economic aspects of it. And of course these are kind of interlinking, um, Because, uh, you know, they’re all taking place simultaneously within Chinese society, but starting with the politics because the, the Communist Party of China is a political entity.

[00:12:47] Joshua: Um, so it prioritizes politics above all else. Um, the, the ideology is China is number one. Um, China is a better system than liberal democracy. Um, it’s a better system, [00:13:00] especially than the United States because it puts human life first, and China is saving lives while the United States was willing to allow many people to die.

[00:13:08] Joshua: And so the United States was careless and reckless with people’s lives, and China was careful and, and measured, and that’s the. Party line. And that party line, um, made a heck of a lot of sense. Uh, for some, for a period of time, um, it had some backlash or, or some consequences because people weren’t exposed to the virus.

[00:13:25] Joshua: And we could talk about that in a minute, but for a time, um, that seemed to work. Um, but that party line is kind of outgrown. Its its usefulness in part because the virus is. Mutated into, um, oon, but I think other things now as well. So, um, but the party line remains right, that China’s number one, which means that China’s policies have to have been ipso facto correct.

[00:13:49] Joshua: And therefore changing them admits that they weren’t correct. And is there some kind of. Fault, and therefore you have a path dependence, uh, which then develops politically, um, where [00:14:00] nobody wants to be the first one to change out of the bad policy because they could face political consequences. Um, uh, you know, basically, uh, being called disloyal and she Jing ping’s commentary.

[00:14:12] Joshua: Uh, basically drove home that point quite clearly. So the political ideology, which is also connected to China’s internationalist ideology, which is China, is, uh, the, the best and China’s political system has something to offer the world, and China is in fact a more effective quote, democracy. Than liberal democracies, um, in the security sense.

[00:14:32] Joshua: Um, you have prior to covid a kind of security state, which has been stoked and built up throughout the years of the anti-corruption crackdowns, which has been built up to uh, basically check the party and check any malfeasance seasons and then that security state. Um, and then you’ve got a group of people who used to enforce.

[00:14:56] Joshua: One child policy who are kind of out of a job, and so you [00:15:00] have a kind of a perfect storm. Then when Covid comes up, where you come up with this testing, quarantine facilities, the guys in the white coats, the Dai and the hazmat suits, and then censorship. And you kind of bring it all together into this security state apparatus, which then controls and administers the zero Covid policy.

[00:15:20] Joshua: Those guys you see running around and even violently beating people who are disobeying the, the zero covid policy locking people in homes. And, and you know, the, the, this, the whole facilities, right? The, that are set up. Um, and then third, you would have the economics of it, which is, um, again, these things are inter interlocking to some degree.

[00:15:39] Joshua: You have the, the testing apparatus, the employment of, of the, uh, testers, the, um, the, the whole quarantine facility, maintenance. Right. Who runs those things? Um, you know, it, it, you know, it’s amazing. You’ve got these quarantine facilities being built just as the property sector collapses. I mean, so you’ve got this [00:16:00] economics of China, which is not in a very good state, which is then able to be.

[00:16:06] Joshua: Stoked somewhat by, uh, the, the, the kind of economics of Covid. Um, and so you come together then with this three-legged stool of politics, security, and economics. Um, and it makes it therefore very hard to come out of Covid, zero covid because there are now vested interests, um, along all these three, uh, metrics which are interested in keeping the policy in place.

[00:16:33] Jeremi: And why has that caused such anger? Uh, especially in recent weeks among so many Chinese citizens, especially in cities like Shanghai and Beijing. Well, there’s

[00:16:46] Joshua: been a, you know, certainly I would say there’s two types of reasons, right? There’s the kind of initial spark, um, and the spark of that was this fire in, in, in Rumori where uh, people had been locked down in a building and the building had a [00:17:00] fire and 10 people died, um, who were reportedly locked in the building now.

[00:17:04] Joshua: Um, and then there’s this video online you can find of this fire hose shooting the water and it’s unable to actually hit the building and therefore people. Um, thought, Hey, well man, this could be me. And so they, they took to the streets. So you’ve got this kind of spark, um, that, that lit what was already, um, kind of a, a, a ready stash of kindling that, you know, had been developed in building and drying for quite some time.

[00:17:29] Joshua: Um, so, um, that’s why, for instance, in Shanghai, the people went out to or me road because, um, they. Or were commemorating that loss. Right, right. And um, the candles, and I think it was Wuhan and other places where, so that was the, the kind of initial spark, although, um, there were, I think, um, already signs prior to that in Guang Jo and at the Apple facility of, of real resistance and discontent to these lockdowns now.

[00:17:57] Joshua: Um, but on the longer, uh, hall side, right, [00:18:00] the more systemic reasons are almost the more interesting. Um, to some degree because yes, zero Covid, um, has taken its toll on the society, but if we step even further back, we can see that there are other systemic long run issues which are not going away and are.

[00:18:18] Joshua: Really serious. And obviously the first one I would say is demographics. Um, you know, China is an older society. It’s, it’s getting older. The Chinese people are simply not having children at a re, at a, um, at a rate that’s gonna sustain. And so, um, you’ve got a situation where, Uh, the, uh, you know, the society’s getting older, uh, before it’s getting richer, and so there’s a serious tension there.

[00:18:42] Joshua: And, and that leads to the second problem, which is falling economic growth. Um, when you’ve got such demographics, um, it’s, it’s almost impossible to grow economically. You also end up becoming perhaps more conservative, right, um, in your dealings. And we can see that in Chinese policy as well. Um, maybe, perhaps [00:19:00] more.

[00:19:00] Joshua: Leading. Um, um, and so China and then, then China’s relations with the world have soured. And that’s a long term process that has been ongoing, arguably since the financial crisis. And then certainly under x j ping, um, those international relations, which j Zam minute others have cultivated during the, uh, outreach period.

[00:19:18] Joshua: The China’s quote, charm offensive as my friend Josh Carlan says, um, those have soured. Um, and then all of this kind of stew has led to the phenomenon. The youth, um, which is called the lying flat phenomenon or letting it rot phenomenon where Chinese youth feel they just don’t have a chance to actually get ahead in the world.

[00:19:40] Joshua: Um, where they, they thought that in the past, the, the, the rapid economic growth would give them many opportunities out of college and the opportunity to study abroad through China’s international relationships was there as well. But now a lot of that is really dried up and so, Um, with 20% youth unemployment, people are [00:20:00] really, uh, feeling pretty down in terms of prospects.

[00:20:03] Joshua: And so I would, you know, from my vantage point here in Indiana, it seems to me that that, um, leads to a lot of discontent. And then that leads to growing censorship where you try to push that discontent down. Um, and then that helps to also lead to. Combustible environment, which can help explain why people are willing to risk and they risk, they did to come out onto the streets, uh, to voice their discontent.

[00:20:26] Joshua: So, um, those are the kind of underlying issues. Um, and then you have the kind of spark that lights these issues. And so the, the spark may go away, uh, but these underlying issues, uh, are here. But how

[00:20:40] Zachary: coherent actually is, is the messaging and or the agenda of the protestors. Uh, the protestors were quoted, or or group of them in indeed sight on November 28th saying, we don’t want lies.

[00:20:52] Zachary: We want dignity. We don’t want cultural revolution. We want reforms. We want to travel. We want to sing karaoke. We want to see [00:21:00] avatar in the cinema and finally go clubbing again. Uh, how, how

[00:21:04] Joshua: coherent is that message? Well, as you can hear, the bar, the bar has gotten pretty low, right? If they’re gonna see avatar in the theater, that’s what they’re looking at.

[00:21:14] Joshua: Um, but the joking aside, this, um, this message is not coherent and to some degree cannot be coherent. And it can’t be coherent, not because of the people, but because of the system and its censorship in the white paper. Right? Um, It’s ipo, you know, and you’re, you’re dealing with a system of censorship that a few years ago when I lived in China, could censor a message nearly immediately when it was sent, and the system has only gotten better.

[00:21:38] Joshua: So it, it, the fact that people can’t, or have a very hard time coordinating is, is simply a fact of the system and it’s advanced nature, right? That, that you cannot. Kind of sleep on it. And I think that that is ultimately why these things have died down, that there’s been a crackdown. And in [00:22:00] that, uh, in many ways the crackdown that we’ve seen, um, has been on the people who’ve been most willing to voice and.

[00:22:07] Joshua: You know, step out there. Um, and therefore it’s, it’s not, and we don’t know what, what punishments they’re gonna face. I mean, my hunch is they may face up to, you know, years in jail. I mean, we’ll, we’ll find out, um, at some point, but my guess is months, maybe years in jail. Um, and then that of course puts another chilling effect.

[00:22:24] Joshua: And so, um, you know, if, if the system is able to loosen. Without massive covid fatalities and people are able to go to the movies and go clubbing again, I think that’s going to give the, give the regime a bit of a reprieve because people had been so constrained that maybe they’ll be at least temporarily, um, satiated by, you know, just the meager ability to go out to dinner with your.

[00:22:53] Joshua: Without having, uh, covid tests, uh, however, and I wanna stress this is really important, is that [00:23:00] this covid testing regime where you’ve got the covid colors, right, the red and the green and whatnot, all of that is tied to the security state in ways that allow it to track the movement of every citizen. And, and knowing what I know about the security state, I just don’t know how they ever, like how do you get rid.

[00:23:18] Joshua: How do you say to the guys who control that, that you can no longer know where everyone else in China is at every moment, but you used to? Because I’ve never seen China come up with such an innovation and then walk away from it. Um, but at the same time, Would the society stand for that kind of, so I think, oh, you know, that’s one tension I’m very interested to see play out.

[00:23:41] Joshua: Um, but to speak to directly to your point, how coherent is it? It’s not that coherent. Um, and it’s not that coherent because it’s, it’s denied the ability to be. And,

[00:23:51] Jeremi: and so obviously Josh, you, you don’t expect any, uh, major political changes in China anytime soon, [00:24:00] but what effect do you think these protests will have with a longer view thinking in terms of months and years rather than days

[00:24:06] Joshua: and weeks?

[00:24:08] Joshua: You know, it’s, it’s interesting. The communist part of your China has done such a good job, squashing out the knowledge. June 4th, 1989. That, I don’t know. I, I wonder whether or not some students may have come out cuz they didn’t know better. Right? Had they known what had happened, they might have been reluctant to do so, but they didn’t.

[00:24:27] Joshua: So, um, ultimately I just, I, I think we are. And then Jeremy, you’ve heard me say this before, in a kind of Orwell and Triple Plus environment such. It’s almost impossible for me to imagine how you can stage a revolution under these circumstances, right? It’s, we’ve never, human beings have never faced them before.

[00:24:52] Joshua: They’ve, they faced authoritarian and totalitarian regimes, but they’ve never faced one with this level of technology. And so [00:25:00] this is a, a real test, right? I mean, the three years of not being able to leave your house, has any society ever done that in the history of the. I don’t think so. But you are the historian, so I’ll turn to you.

[00:25:13] Joshua: No, I don’t

[00:25:14] Jeremi: think so. And I mean, most other societies did not have the institutional capabilities, just what you described so well, to actually surveil and force people to stay in their homes as the Chinese have done or the scientific

[00:25:27] Zachary: understanding to, to, to respond to disease in such a way. Right.

[00:25:31] Joshua: Yeah. I mean, and don’t forget and, and people aren’t not gonna like me saying this, right?

[00:25:34] Joshua: But this kind of pro tracing and everything, that’s what a lot of the, you know, people, you know, in the medical community wanted us to be doing. Right. Like trace every 10 to the ground. And you know, and I think early on, those of us who thought about it for a second were like, how the heck is that all. Um, but we were told at the beginning of Covid that we need to trace every single thing.

[00:25:56] Joshua: And, you know, that’s where we had to be. So to some degree, [00:26:00] China took that ball and ran with it, right? That we are the most scientific, we are tracing every single case, and we are ensuring that everybody is quarantined according to the scientific knowledge. And, and so they, they took that thing and went way over the top and we didn’t go far enough, arguably.

[00:26:15] Joshua: Um, but, um, And, and so do,

[00:26:20] Jeremi: do you, do you think that the protests will add to what is emerging as a, as a political crisis for this regime surrounding just the issues we talked about before? Right. An economy that’s slowed down. Uh, demographic issues in 2050, right? The population of China will be half of what it is today because of the, the demographics, because of the one China policy.

[00:26:42] Jeremi: Will this add to the challenges facing Xi Jing Ping? And how do you expect Xi Jing Ping to react to this?

[00:26:50] Joshua: So you, one thing that’s interesting is that, uh, during this, uh, this, uh, funerals for John Ziman, you know, it’s been a pretty paired down affair and [00:27:00] certainly the, there has been no rule for the people, right?

[00:27:03] Joshua: We think of the historical moment of joely’s casket, like rolling down. The street Right. People of Beijing crying, weeping. Right. That I don’t, that’s not happening here. And I’m not saying it would anyway. I don’t know what the people of Beijing would do if you did that, but it’s certainly not happening in any case.

[00:27:21] Joshua: Um, and so I, I wonder what the effect is going to be. Um, but at the same time, um, Xi Jing took the opportunity to honor Jung Zein accordingly. Right? He, he didn’t try to kind. Bury or quickly, um, or, or not give him full praise. Um, also one thing that was interesting was I noticed that Hugin Tao was not at.

[00:27:45] Joshua: The event. Right, right. And of course, how was removed from the meeting, which of course in my mind was obviously no mistake. And anybody who suggests that it was, is I think not understanding the situation very well. Um, but his non presence [00:28:00] here, um, he of course, he could be unwell, right? So I don’t wanna say a hundred percent, but it is suggestive, um, that of all important events.

[00:28:08] Joshua: Right? He, he should, because he. Or excuse me, predecessor John. Um, but in getting to this issue of, uh, you know, the, the, the political impact of this, right? So these long term issues that I mentioned are not going away anytime soon. Um, but they’re, they’re kind of, um, slow rolling issues, right? They’re, um, And so for there to be some kind of real challenge to the leadership, we would have to see acute issues, kind of black swan events.

[00:28:38] Joshua: And I think that given what I know of the system, it’d be very hard to imagine one of those just being enough. Right? And even the, the kind of, the carcass that was the end of the Soviet Union required like tno, you know, uh, Gobi off, um, you know, Req [00:29:00] a variety of different elements to push it over. Right?

[00:29:02] Joshua: And China’s rich, uh, has a lot of capacity, right? So even. Under those circumstances. And you know, the Soviet Union, of course, did not have all of the tactics, techniques, and technologies that the Communist Party of China does. Right. You know, given what we’ve known of how hard it is to topple these regimes.

[00:29:21] Joshua: Right. Given that it had, the stazi had a chance they would’ve stayed in East Germany. Right. That they weren’t given the chance, but they would’ve, um, it is almost impossible for me to imagine. A non bloody outcome for some kind of political change. Um, and that would require several different Black Swan events occurring simultaneously.

[00:29:40] Joshua: So I, I don’t know. I’m not saying it’s impossible, I’m just saying it’s highly unlikely. Right, right.

[00:29:46] Jeremi: And, and many are worried that, um, the domestic difficulties will encourage the Chinese leadership to take a, a more aggressive international stance on Taiwan and, and other issues. Do you. Happening. [00:30:00]

[00:30:01] Joshua: Well, you know my view on this, up until the party Congress.

[00:30:05] Joshua: X wanted to be as bellaco as he was gonna be, but he wasn’t gonna risk anything by actually doing anything. And I think that’s exactly what happened with the Nancy Pelosi visit, which was, uh, you know, to to to paw it off at all. And Nancy Pelosi was kind of comical to me, but that was so clearly, I think, what he was doing.

[00:30:22] Joshua: Um, but you know,

[00:30:24] Jeremi: you’re, you’re referring to Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan, which was a few months ago now I.

[00:30:29] Joshua: That’s right, that’s right. Which was used as a kind of pretext for these, uh, you know, long plan maneuvers, but, Xi j Ping, since he’s come on board in 2013, made it very clear and has made it very clear that, that he sees this as a time for striving for achievement and that he’s going to pursue a very, Assertive Chinese foreign policy, which challenges the United States, uh, preeminence in the world, and that’s what he’s going to do.

[00:30:59] Joshua: [00:31:00] Um, and I, I can’t see any reason why under these circumstances of un unchallenged and arrival power, he would change any of that. So, I, I mean, to me, I think we’re just gonna get more of the. And that may be, it may be getting worse, right? But unfortunately I do not see opportunities for US policy makers, and that’s quite unfortunate, right?

[00:31:23] Joshua: Because as Americans, we would love to believe that if we cared enough and tried enough and we had the best option that we could have, we could solve the problem. But my hunch is that China. Doesn’t really want to solve the problem, right? That part of their whole propaganda line that they sell around the world is we’ve got something better than America does.

[00:31:41] Joshua: And so I, I don’t see much in terms of capacity for US policy makers to engage China in a meaningful way at this point. Perhaps strategic patients or, or from a historical perspective, walking softly and carrying a big stick like approach at this time. Um, [00:32:00] No, I, I, I can’t imagine him being necessarily more assertive, but I, I, he’s already been as assertive as , so I mean, just more of the same, I guess.

[00:32:08] Joshua: Right,

[00:32:08] Jeremi: right. You don’t see much change. That, that, that sounds like that’s your assessment and thoughtful assessment, both internally and externally. So it does bring us to the, the topic you brought up, which is always, um, where we like to close our discussions. What is it that our, our listeners, our, uh, listeners who are active citizens who care about human right.

[00:32:28] Jeremi: Care about peace in the world and care about democracy. What is it that they should be paying attention to and what is it that they can do? You’ve already said, this is clearly not a problem the United States can solve. Uh, but what can we do as citizens and what can our government do, Josh, that will have some kind of positive impact upon this difficult situation that you’ve laid out?

[00:32:51] Joshua: So I think that what the United States can do is, is first and foremost, we need to be more modest and lower our expectations. [00:33:00] Um, you know, our fallacy of engagement with China was partly predicated on the idea that if we, if we had the right policy, we would get the right result. And that what we had was so attractive that they couldn’t help but want it.

[00:33:13] Joshua: And that led us to allow them to lead us down the primrose path. And so, We shouldn’t go into any engagement with China with the expectations raised. Right. And, and thinking that, that we can solve it by ourself. Right? We, we have to begin with the understanding that Xi j Ping decided to change Chinese policy to become more assertive after the United States had pursued decades of engagement, all intended to mollify China’s concerns.

[00:33:44] Joshua: Right? So the idea that now if we. Find a way to, yeah, I mean, there’s just no way to square what has happened with where we are in, in, in any kind of a, um, optimistic perspective. So be more modest in terms of what [00:34:00] you think American policy makers can achieve. Um, Keep your expectations low about what you think China’s going to do in the world.

[00:34:08] Joshua: Um, and I, especially with regard to Ukraine, I mean so much wishful thinking about, oh, will China finally do this or that vis-a-vis Russia on Ukraine? And the answer is no. And was from the beginning when they stood together in, uh, February and said, we’ve got better democracies, uh, than the west. Right? So, um, I think that be modest.

[00:34:31] Joshua: Keep your expectations low about what is gonna happen in China, what we can do to change China. Um, also keep your expectations low about these protests and what they can actually achieve in China. And that’s not to say don’t support them because we should support them. And I, when I say support them, I mean.

[00:34:50] Joshua: You know, I guess rhetorically, because that’s really the only way we can do so. Um, but, um, don’t, I don’t think have the misperception that this is [00:35:00] going to lead to change in the governance of China, at least not in the immediate or short term. Um, although, you know, who knows what seeds may be planted, right?

[00:35:11] Joshua: So I don’t wanna overstate the case, but, um, I. We better to be more modest in our expectations there as

[00:35:17] Jeremi: well. Interesting. Interesting. Zachary, what, what do you think? I mean, Josh has offered a very sobering account of what’s happening, right? Showing, uh, a high degree of, uh, sympathy. And, um, support for, uh, the protestors for those holding up the blank sheets that you referred to in your, in your poem.

[00:35:38] Jeremi: Um, pointing to the, the limits and the failures of this regime in China, but also pointing Josh does to the elements of resilience. The authorities have in controlling power and staying in power, and he’s counseling for lower expectations for a longer view. Um, does that resonate with you? Did, is that, does that offer us, [00:36:00] um, a pathway forward or does that become an excuse for doing nothing?

[00:36:04] Joshua: Well, I,

[00:36:04] Zachary: I don’t want to trivialize the experience of, of, of political diss in China, but I think there’s actually a phenomenon that, that I think could have a big impact on this, that, that many Americans have experienced in recent years, which is the, uh, experience of protesting. I think, uh, the, the, the evidence shows that once you go to your first protest, You’re much more likely to go to your second protest and your third Of course.

[00:36:25] Zachary: Of course. And I think I, I was listening to a report on the radio the other day of a, of a, of a, uh, citizen in Shanghai who went to their very first protest. Uh, and I think to me, uh, that, that the idea that, um, someone even could think consciously about being politically engaged in a way that goes against the state, even if it never results in something tangible in the short term, has long term effects.

[00:36:49] Zachary: If that becomes an experience that is common even to. Percentage of the population. I think later down the line, if we, if there is a Black Swan event as Professor Eiseman called it [00:37:00] or something of the sort, uh, that, that is very powerful. That’s a very powerful

[00:37:03] Jeremi: social form. So, so it, it creates some small cracks, cracks, some hairline, fractures Exactly.

[00:37:09] Jeremi: In the region, or, or it

[00:37:09] Zachary: gives a, a certain power to the individual even in the face of a, of a, of a political mastro. Right.

[00:37:16] Jeremi: Josh? I think this is what you were referring to as the weapons of the week.

[00:37:20] Joshua: Yes, and you know, if you know, this is also the planting of the seeds, right? You know, if you’ve got ideas, you know, spread around the country that hey, we can push back then.

[00:37:30] Joshua: Then if other black swans or other issues, you know, Create opportunities, then you could see kind of upswell through the cracks. Again, maybe the metaphor is like lava coming up through the cracks of uh, uh, but at this point, um, if the monopolies of the state are secure, uh, it becomes very difficult, uh, because they’re so efficient, uh, at, at shutting off these avenues.

[00:37:56] Joshua: And so I do think Zachary’s right, that, that this plants [00:38:00] the seed, right? Um, um, The first time you do anything is more likely to lead to the second. And this is, uh, can be somewhat intoxicating, especially if you believe that China has changed its zero covid policies because of what you did. Now I don’t know that that’s the case.

[00:38:15] Joshua: In fact, I think China was kind of on its way to some loosening anyway. Um, but at the same time, I, if people perceive that their actions led to the loosening, that there can be, um, intoxicating as well. Because, you know, if you believe you have. Agency and suddenly you’ve gained some, you know, you may want more.

[00:38:33] Joshua: Um, the question is that that agency also comes at great risk, and you may see people who are standing next to you at the protest, uh, who, uh, go to jail or prison. And it’s very common in China, uh, to really. Do a lot of damage to one particular person in order to frighten others, right? Of course. Of course.

[00:38:52] Joshua: To use that person as an example. And so there’s no doubt in my mind that at least some people will be punished [00:39:00] severely, um, and those people will be held up as an example. You know, to the rest,

[00:39:06] Jeremi: that’s almost certainly happening right now as we speak. Um, Josh, I think though this echo is one of our central points week in and week out on our podcast, which is that the work of democratic change is slow and, uh, it involves very costly sacrifices, uh, and it’s unpredictable.

[00:39:25] Jeremi: Uh, but nonetheless, uh, there are ways, even in very inhospitable circumstances, as you’ve described in China, uh, in ways in which the actions of individuals do plant seeds or create cracks. Uh, we don’t know exactly how they will play out, but we can at least recognize that those cracks are being made and, and we can be supportive from a distance and, uh, we shouldn’t, as you say, expect change.

[00:39:51] Jeremi: Democracies are not built overnight. And who knows if China will ever have a democracy in the way we think about democracy. But, um, [00:40:00] change does occur. That’s the rule of history and change is slow and often happening at a level we don’t recognize until something big happens, until there’s a Black Swan event, as you said.

[00:40:10] Jeremi: And so we are living through a slow moment of change. And I think you’ve given us really a very thoughtful way of understanding. and, um, I think the students, uh, in China, as limited as their abilities are, uh, these, these protestors, they, they can still inspire us and maybe help us to think through our own commitment to democracy just a little more as, as we watch them and, and learn from

[00:40:32] Joshua: them.

[00:40:32] Joshua: You know, there’s one, one thing I would just add here, and you can include if you would like the, um, you know, if you wake up every day and predict no revolution, then you, you’d be right 99% of the time, but you’d also miss the revolution, right? Um, and. To, to that kind of end. We often hear people opining about what Chinese people know and what they don’t know.

[00:40:55] Joshua: And I think what we’ve seen shows us that we really don’t know what they know and don’t [00:41:00] know that some people know a hell of a lot more than we thought they did. And some people don’t seem to know anything, and a lot of it has to do with where they’re getting their information in their news and, and how they get it.

[00:41:11] Joshua: And, um, and so, It’s, uh, it’s just important to, to kind of be, again, more modest perhaps in, in, in suggesting that we have a, a really firm understanding about the kind of information ecosystem in China at this time, which seems to be increasingly, um, difficult to evaluate from the outside

[00:41:29] Jeremi: perspective. Yes, yes.

[00:41:30] Jeremi: Very well said, Josh. And I think that’s a recurring theme, right? That, uh, those. Committed to democracy, have to be humble about what they know, and also humble about how well they can predict and understand the behavior of, of, uh, people close and people far away in both circumstances. Josh, thank you so much, uh, for joining us.

[00:41:51] Jeremi: Uh, I encourage all of our listeners to follow the work of professor, uh, Joshua Eiseman, his books, his articles, [00:42:00] uh, and his, his, uh, work on China is, is absolutely, uh, e. Are understanding what’s happening in that society and and in the larger international system today. So Josh, thank you again for joining.

[00:42:12] Jeremi: The pleasure was all mine. And Zachary, of course, thank you for your, uh, poem about the blank sheets of paper that we will all remember and think about for a long time. And thank you, most of all, to our loyal listeners for joining us for this episode of this is Democracy.

[00:42:36] Outro: This podcast is produced by the Liberal Arts Its Development Studio and the College of Liberal Arts at the University of Texas at Austin. The music in this episode was written and recorded by Heroes Kini. Stay tuned for a new episode every week. You can find this is Democracy on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and Stitcher.

[00:42:55] Outro: See you next time.[00:43:00]