This is Democracy – Episode 218: Midterm Elections

[00:00:00] Intro: This is Democracy, a podcast about the people of the United States, a podcast about citizenship, about engaging with politics and the world around you. A podcast about educating yourself on today’s important issues and how to have a

[00:00:21] Intro: in what happens next. Welcome to our new episode of This Is Democracy.

[00:00:29] Jeremi: This week we are going to discuss the midterm elections, which occurred, uh, three weeks ago now, but, uh, which seem like they will never go away. Uh, just, uh, this week, the week after Thanksgiving, we’re seeing the certification of the results in Arizona, Michigan, and elsewhere. And of course, the Senate runoff in.

[00:00:51] Jeremi: Uh, and, uh, we also see continued discussion about, uh, the future makeup of the House of Representatives, the Senate, uh, and, uh, all branches of US government we are fortunate to have with us today. Uh, one of the most interesting and insightful writers on American politics. Uh, full stop. Uh, but particularly the politics of the Republican Party and its historical evolution over the last half century.

[00:01:18] Jeremi: Uh, this is our good friend and prior, Uh, Jeff Caber service. Uh, Jeff, thanks for joining us.

[00:01:24] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: Uh, great to be with you, Jeremy. Zachary.

[00:01:27] Jeremi: Jeffrey Caba service is the Vice President of Political Studies at the Scon Center. He is the author of several books that I highly recommend, uh, to all of our listeners books that I often assign to students.

[00:01:39] Jeremi: Uh, so if I haven’t assigned these books to you, uh, consider yourself now assigned. Um, The guardians, uh, Kingman Brewster, his circle and the rise of the Liberal establishment, which is really a wonderful book. I remember, uh, talking with Jeff as he was working on this, as his dissertation really captures, uh, the promise and perils of what we might call moderate liberal republicanism, uh, in the 1960s in particular.

[00:02:07] Jeremi: Then, uh, Jeff followed that up with another blockbuster book rule and Ro the downfall of Moderation and the destruction of the Republican Party from Eisenhower to the Tea Party. This was published in 2012 and really anticipated , uh, further destruction of the Republican Party. Thereafter, Jeff has continued to write, uh, in so many important venues, the New York Times, the Washington Post, the LA Times.

[00:02:32] Jeremi: He has his own podcast that I was fortunate enough to appear on. Gun and center. Uh, and Jeff is very prominent in, uh, all kinds of discussions, uh, about American politics today, and the, the search for moderation, the search for centrism in our extremist politics. So we’re very fortunate to have Jeff with us.

[00:02:52] Jeremi: Before we turn to our discussion, uh, with Mr. Kaba service, we have of course, uh, Zachary Siri, scene setting poem. What’s the title of your poem?

[00:03:02] Zachary: My first vote, 10 ,24, 22.

[00:03:05] Jeremi: And, and you told me this is a sonet, right? Yes. This is a sonet. Okay. Well just explain to us maybe what a sonet is before you start.

[00:03:11] Zachary: Well, I, I hope everyone knows what a sonet is, but, uh, it’s 14 lines.

[00:03:15] Zachary: I am a ab, ab B, et cetera. Uh, and, uh, uh, a, um, Couplet at the end. Um, or I guess Volta is often, uh, the, the term I’ve heard used to describe the content at least, but

[00:03:30] Jeremi: Okay. Okay. I think everyone had a sense of what a saw it was, but no one quite had that detailed explanation off the tip of their tongues and the way you did

[00:03:38] Jeremi: Right. Let’s hear it.

[00:03:39] Zachary: Okay. When I walked in the booth, at first I thought I had discovered freedom at first breath, when all is hopeful, but must first be fought for, paid in fortitude and early death. It was an illusion that I am quite sure, but for a fleeting second, I could swear I tasted my tongue. A red, white, blue blur of both the oceans in a single.

[00:04:06] Zachary: I think it was the promise. Then I heard that promise to us never has come true. That flying forth for land has not returned a dove thought missing in the endless blue. It didn’t matter much. My vote was hurled, but then again, it mattered half the world.

[00:04:26] Jeremi: I love it. Zachary, almost Shakespearean. What is your poem about?

[00:04:31] Zachary: My poem is about, um, The, the way in which my first vote cast in this midterm election, um, how, how empowering it felt to finally have, uh, the chance to, to check that box, uh, digitally here in Texas, uh, um, on, on my first ballot. Uh, but also the ways in which, uh, that experience to me and the election results, which followed, uh, exposed the limitations.

[00:04:58] Zachary: The frustrations of voting and, and, and, and, and the pathologies of, of, of our, of our democracy right now.

[00:05:06] Jeremi: So Jeff, I think that’s a perfect place to, to turn to your analysis of, of the midterms. Um, Zachary was one of a number of young people who voted did do to start us off. I mean, do you have a sense, did, did young people make a big difference in this?

[00:05:21] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: Um, first of all, thank you for your poem, Zachary, uh, and congratulations on casting your first vote. Uh, I wish you many more. Um, you know, one of the problems with trying to figure. What has happened in a particular election is that we depend on exit polls. And exit polls are notoriously unreliable. And in particular, they overweight, uh, the college educated voters and they also overweight young people.

[00:05:45] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: So, although a lot of the early reports were that Generation Z came through and saved democracy, I, I think we just really don’t know the answer to that in terms of whether the turnout was, uh, bigger, smaller, about the same as it’s been in past elections, and we probably won’t know until more detailed results.

[00:06:01] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: Available to us about six months. Hence.

[00:06:04] Jeremi: And, and so what do we know then with some certainty about, about, uh, the voting? I mean, there was high turnout for a midterm historically. Is that correct, Jeff?

[00:06:15] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: Uh, I’m not even sure about that to be honest. Um, and I, I have a feeling that actually probably will turn out to be not as high as.

[00:06:21] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: Um, some past elections we’ve had, but what is interesting about this midterm is that it’s really a departure from a lot of historical patterns, and in particular with Joe Biden’s rating hovering near 40%, which is not very good. He’s underwater and has been actually ever since. The US withdrawal from Afghanistan, um, and the economy also not performing terribly well for a lot of people, you would’ve expected that Democrats would’ve been shellacked.

[00:06:49] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: Um, I think the average loss for a President’s party, particularly in his first term, is something like 28 seats in the house and one to two in the Senate. In that first midterm election and while the Democrats did lose, uh, control of the house and where we’re now waiting to see whether Kevin McCarthy will in fact be elected, the new speaker, uh, they retained the Senate.

[00:07:11] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: And this is really an unusual result. And the Democrats have some cause to feel good about themselves. Um, but what’s two things that really strike me as being particularly interesting about this. First of all, on the subject of Zachary’s poem, this was an election where a lot of races were determined by a relatively small number of votes.

[00:07:29] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: So although, you know, one can feel that one is just casting, one’s infinitesimal vote into a pool of a hundred million and it doesn’t count for anything. Uh, in fact, a lot of differences were made in a lot of elections by a relative handful of votes. And the other thing is, It seems like this was in many ways a rejection of extremists, uh, and a vote for more or less normal politicians, which is certainly, uh, a good result compared to some of the ones we’ve had in the past.

[00:08:00] Jeremi: So say a little more about that, Jeff, because this is actually your mid ta right? Is understanding the, the challenges of managing extremism or not managing it within, uh, both parties, particularly the Republican party. In what ways do you see extremists getting rejected at the ballot box in this last election?

[00:08:20] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: So, as you, uh, pointed, Jeremy and some of your introductory remarks. Um, we really were anticipating a red wave in this election, and it turned into a, a red trickle at best. You’re right. Um, and so there’s a lot of, uh, recriminations going on on the Republican side, uh, because this simply is not the results that they were expecting.

[00:08:38] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: Uh, I think in the end, the margin of Republican control in the house will be something like eight votes, which I think is about the margins that the Democrats, uh, have mostly enjoyed during this last, uh, session of Congress. So this is not what they thought was gonna be happening. If you go back three months, some Republicans were confidently predicting that they would have a result more like 2010, when the Democrats, I think lost 63 votes in the house, uh, in Obama’s first term.

[00:09:06] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: So this was not. And given all of the tensions and divisions within the Republican caucus, it’s gonna be very difficult for Kevin McCarthy to be an effective speaker. Uh, Nancy Pelosi, who’s now retiring, uh, as speaker, did manage, uh, a more or less unified caucus with, again, the small number of votes to spare.

[00:09:26] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: But I think that’s beyond Kevin McCarthy’s talents and the makeup of the Republican Party. Um, but on the other, It does not seem to me that this was really a resounding election, uh, in favor of the Democrats either. Uh, and again, we’ll know more when we have more detailed exit polls, but one statistic that I thought was just fascinating from the exit polls, which which does actually bear comparability, um, was that.

[00:09:53] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: They usually ask, uh, people coming out of the polling places. Did you, uh, do you strongly support, uh, Joe Biden, the president? Do you somewhat support, uh, do you somewhat disapprove or do you strongly disapprove and in that category of strongly disapprove? Um, most of the time in most elections, those people will vote against the party in power.

[00:10:12] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: By 30 to 40 percentage points. And in this election they actually voted Democrat ply. Five percentage points. Like this is an almost historically, uh, unprecedented, uh, uh, tally. So there’s a lot of interesting things going on in this election, which we’re going to be arguing about, as you say, for quite some time.

[00:10:31] Jeremi: Uh, that’s really an insightful, um, Fact that you have from the, uh, exit polling that a large number of people who say they’re dissatisfied with the president still voted for his party, uh, in this election. How do you explain that, Jeff?

[00:10:48] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: You know, I think there is a lot of dissatisfaction with the Democrats, which is reflected in, uh, Joe Biden’s low approval ratings, and also in the fact that Republicans nationally took the house vote, I wanna say, by four to five percentage points.

[00:11:02] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: And these are the usual reasons that we’ve discussed, uh, the economy inflation, um, lingering dissatisfaction perhaps with some of the Democrats, uh, covid restrictions that were, seemed to be excessive. Uh, crime being a big dissatisfier. Uh, the border being a big dissatisfier. There’s, there’s a lot of things that have gone into that.

[00:11:22] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: Um, and yet in so many contests, particularly in purple states, um, voters looked. The Republican and said, I just cannot vote for that person. Um, and again, if we’re looking at a remarkable statistic in all of the swing states where there was an election denier who was the Republican candidate for Secretary of State, every one of them went down to defeat.

[00:11:45] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: Um, and in a lot of the swing states also, um, election denier Republican candidates lost races that they really, by rights should have won. And I think that’s one of the big takeaways for the Republican Party. This. And,

[00:11:58] Jeremi: and in some ways they even outperformed, uh, the Democrats running against election deniers outperformed other Democrats.

[00:12:05] Jeremi: So for example, in Arizona, um, you have the Attorney general, uh, democratic candidate winning by I think four or 5%. Whereas the um, actually as a Secretary of State candidate, excuse me, winning by four or 5%, whereas the attorney general candidate only won the Democrat by 500. Meaning that a much higher percentage of voters, uh, voted against the election denier who was running for Secretary of State,

[00:12:30] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: right.

[00:12:31] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: Uh, and various people including Phil Wallock at aei and I wanna say Nate Cone, have calculated that there was a five percentage point disadvantage for election deniers, uh, in this race, which is really quite something. But I think this also speaks to the fact that, uh, the swing voter has not been rendered extinct.

[00:12:49] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: As many pundits, uh, would’ve had us believe, uh, in past elections. And I think that’s a heartening thing, really.

[00:12:56] Jeremi: And so this is a concept, uh, Jeff, that you and I have meditated on as scholars. It’s a, it’s a concept that was, has been used by political scientists like David May, who for a long time. Uh, what, what do we mean by a swing voter?

[00:13:08] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: Uh, you know, a swing voter is someone who can go between either party depending on the appeal of the candidate, uh, or their perception of how one party or the other is handling the matters that are important to them. Um, you know, the conventional wisdom for, I would say the last two decades has been that there really are no swing voters.

[00:13:25] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: That even voters who say their independence or undecideds are really partisans when you get right down to it for one side or the other. And that’s ultimately how they vote, uh, in the polling place. But I, as I said, I think this election showed that that’s not totally true. Um, and also that independents in many cases are true independence, that their votes are up for grabs and that they need to be persuaded one way or maybe dissuaded the other way, uh, by the arguments that the candidates.

[00:13:53] Zachary: But as much as this election sort of, I think has come down in many ways at the margins to, to swing voters, so much of the story has been in places where we maybe wouldn’t expect swing voters to play as larger a role. Uh, or, or, sorry, where they played a lower. Or a lesser role than we would’ve expected in places like Michigan or Florida, where it seems we had landslides or large margins for incumbent governors.

[00:14:18] Zachary: Uh, and then on the other hand, you had places like Suburban New York City that, that, that swung large for Republicans. How do we understand these sort of very odd, if you will, localized results.

[00:14:29] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: So, um, these are difficult to understand. And again, I think we don’t have the answers yet. But there’s a factor we haven’t mentioned yet, which is the role of the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision that overturned Roe versus Wade, uh, in June of this year.

[00:14:45] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: And. I am sure that had an effect at the margins, uh, in a number of races that tilted them to Democrats, which otherwise would’ve been Republican victories. Um, and I think you particularly saw that in states where abortion was on the ballot, so to speak. Um, and there were a number of states where there were initiatives and referendums on abortion.

[00:15:04] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: Um, and in every case it was, uh, I suppose you would say the, the pro-abortion right side that came out, Victor. We even saw that in very conservative states like Kansas and Kentucky. Um, and also this is a case in results where the governor candidate or the Attorney General perhaps would have likely had some role in determining what kind of access to abortion there would be in the event that he or she won.

[00:15:30] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: And I think that really was very important in a state like Michigan. Uh, on the other hand, it wasn’t up for grabs in New York, um, where abortion rights are secure and therefore voters perhaps felt freed to. Uh, on issues like crime, which seem to be a determinative vote in a lot of, particularly the suburban, uh, New York elections on Long Island and elsewhere.

[00:15:50] Jeremi: Right, right. We’re referring here to Suffolk and Nassar counties and, and these are areas, bedroom communities of New York City that are generally assumed to be Democrat, where, uh, and I think four or maybe even five, uh, Republicans unseated Democrats in congressional races. Probably to be the difference in control of the House of Representatives,

[00:16:10] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: and there’s a lot of recriminations among Democrats that this is because Mario Cuomo, for his own political ends, uh, allowed the dis determination of the, of the borders of those districts to be set by a commission that might have leaned Republican.

[00:16:24] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: But that’s a different subject. Right,

[00:16:26] Jeremi: right. That is, and I think you’re referring to Andrew Cuomo. Correct. Andrew Cuomo. Sorry. Yes. So it’s okay. One Cuomo to another . Oh, sorry. Those are those of us who have lived in New York, . It’s been

[00:16:36] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: a long reign of Cuomos.

[00:16:37] Jeremi: Yes. So, so. Jeff, what does this mean? Um, based on what we know so far for the Republican party, I mean, your, your work shows so definitively how, um, really going back before Newt Gingrich, but from the time of Newt Gingrich forward from, uh, the 1990s forward, the extreme wing of the party has hijacked.

[00:17:01] Jeremi: Its position in many elections and has, has been relatively successful. This is a formula that that has worked for Gingrich and Trump and others. Um, is the party going to rethink this formula? Are we realistic to expect the party to come back to more moderate positions or, uh, or not?

[00:17:20] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: Um, my thoughts on this are very jumbled, Jeremy, so I’m gonna give you and Zachary a pretty jumbled answer to this.

[00:17:26] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: Um, you know, one of the lessons that the Republican party learned in the 1960s from Barry Goldwater’s presidential candidacy in 1964 was that it’s a mistake to have a candidate who excites the base too much because the only way you can actually gin that base up to a white hot peak of intensity is through extreme.

[00:17:47] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: Positions, which are also unpopular positions. Um, and Goldwater’s wipe out in 1964 handed Linen Johnson and the Democrats, the ability to pass what amounted to a second new deal. And this was a very chasing experience for a lot of Republicans, including a lot of conservatives like Ronald Reagan. . Um, and so when Ronald Reagan ran for governor in his own right in California in 1966 and then later for president, um, he actually ran as a big tent Republican.

[00:18:14] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: We tend to forget this, given that there was so much lionization of Reagan as Mr. Conservative, uh, but in fact he always knew that the party over which he presided was actually fairly heterogeneous. And if it was going to win popular majorities, he needed to retain the moderates as well as the diehard ultra conservatives.

[00:18:33] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: And so he purposely did not, uh, fan his, uh, followers up to that white hot or even red hot peak of intensity. Uh, and it’s part of the secret of his success. Um, whereas starting from new Gingrich onwards, the idea was that Republicans can only win if they’re divisive, if they split the American population and if they.

[00:18:53] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: Their base hate the other’s base. So in this sense, Gingrich is actually taking the advice of Pat Buchanan when he was advisor to President Richard Nixon, which is that if we tear the country in half, we’ll end up with the bigger half. Um, and this is more or less the, the approach that they’ve, uh, followed ever since, which is, Described by, uh, the political scientists as negative partisanship or effective polarization or what have you, uh, which is where you don’t actually like your own party that much, but you sure do hate the other party and you are determined to deny them any kind of victory, even if that means that your own party isn’t really running on anything that’s going to benefit you all that much.

[00:19:32] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: Uh, the only benefit that they have. Owning the other party and fighting a culture war fight, which may not even affect your life that much. So this is the kind of empty back and forth politics that we’ve had a lot of, uh, really since the 1990s with the arguable, uh, interregnum of, of, uh, of George W. Bush.

[00:19:51] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: Um, but you know, Basically is the sort of thing where one party wins the majority. The voters hate that party in power, they turn back to the other party, they hate that party, they turn back to the other one. Since we only have two parties to choose from, uh, in our system, uh, and what neither party has done is actually establish itself as the consensus popular party.

[00:20:11] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: Um, that was the rule throughout most of American history. Uh, if you go. To the years following the Civil War, the Republican Party was the Sun Party. The Democrats were the moon party, right? Uh, and Republicans exercised enormous, uh, popular majorities for most of that time, both at the level of the presidency and also, uh, in Congress, and even down to the level of.

[00:20:31] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: Most states, state houses, uh, and then following the Great Depression and the New Deal, the Democrats became the Sun Party and the Republicans were the, the Moon Party, the out party and the Republican party particularly was shut out of a majority in the house for 40 years from, uh, the 1950s. Through the 1990s.

[00:20:50] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: Um, so new Gingrich felt that in order to get the Republicans back into power, he really had to destroy public faith in congress and institution. Uh, he pursued an absolute scorched earth approach that seemed to be effective. Um, but I think the question is, was it really as effective as all that? Because essentially it just launched us into this back and forth era of, of hatred, uh, mutual hatreds and the Republican party.

[00:21:13] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: Now, I think in the wake of this election has to ask itself whether the current champion of this approach of dividing the country. Namely Donald Trump is the kind of candidate and approach that they want going forwards, or whether they’re better off actually trying to pose as a more normal party that might actually win sizable, popular majorities of Americans.

[00:21:34] Jeremi: How within the Republican party would the argument for a normal party be made? What should we be looking for to see, to see that? It certainly doesn’t seem to be Ron DeSantis.

[00:21:46] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: Well, I don’t know. Uh, I mean, DeSantis is making that argument frankly because he won in Florida by a margin of 19 plus points, uh, which is a big margin.

[00:21:56] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: Now, you can also say that Florida has been trending toward the Republicans, um, and that Marco Rubio, who is the senatorial. Republican candidate also won by a big majority. I think 16 points, not quite 20, but still pretty impressive. And

[00:22:11] Jeremi: DeSantis politics are pretty divisive, aren’t they,

[00:22:13] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: Jeff? Yeah.

[00:22:14] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: DeSantis has always cast himself as sort of a mini Trump. Um, and if anything, you know, his stunt of flying Venezuelan asylum seekers in Texas to Martha’s Vineyard, um, is kind of a more demented and morally, uh, deranged, uh, version of Trumpism than Trump, him. Right. Seems to have managed in a while. Um, but what he’s not doing really is trying to draw back upon any of what used to define the Republican party, uh, as the party of responsible stewardship, uh, and a national party that draws together all people.

[00:22:48] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: He sometimes makes thrusts at that. So he actually seems to have been reasonably effective in his response to the recent floor h. Uh, and he accepted Joe Biden’s visit to the state. He didn’t try to score points off that. Um, he has tried to be a competent governor in terms of rebuilding certain critical bridges, uh, and infrastructure that were destroyed by the storms.

[00:23:10] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: Uh, and that’s what really excites the, uh, the belief on many of the relatively moderate parts of the Republican Party, that this can be someone who can deliver Trumpism without. Uh, who can actually bridge the gap between the business oriented wing of the party that just wants competency in government versus the Trump oriented wing of the party that wants populism and owning of the lives.

[00:23:31] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: Uh, where Dentis does again, sort of seem to suggest a model for the Republican way forward, uh, is that he performed quite well among Hispanics in Florida, and I think he’s the first, uh, Republican governor in 20 years at least to actually win a majority of Miami Dad. Uh, which is heavily Hispanic. Um, and there’s this feeling that the Republicans are becoming the party, the working class, and that this is a multiethnic, multiracial working class.

[00:23:57] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: And since there are more working class people and lower middle class people in the United States than college educated professionals, that this is the way forward for the Republican party to become a popular majority party again.

[00:24:09] Jeremi: Is, is there a pathway for someone like Marilyn, governor Larry Hogan, um, who, who, who claims to be more of a traditional, uh, Republican moderate on many social and cultural issues in particular?

[00:24:22] Jeremi: Well, Chris Nunu in,

[00:24:24] Zachary: in New Hampshire, right?

[00:24:25] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: Yeah. You know, I like Larry Hogan. I like Chris Sin Nunu. Um, and you know, I think it’s pretty significant that the Republican parties in both Massachusetts, where Charlie Baker was a popular Republican governor and in Maryland where Larry Hogan was a popular Republican governor, chose to go with their hearts and elect super Trumpy Republican nominees over the more moderate, uh, alternative.

[00:24:49] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: And lost. So they basically just gave up two states of the Democrats because they weren’t even willing to compromise by nominating a more traditional Republican, a more traditional conservative like Hogan, uh, or Charlotte Baker. Um, so, you know, I don’t really think that there’s. A, an easy path, maybe a path at all for Larry Hogan to get the nomination of the Republican Party.

[00:25:12] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: But I’m not sure there’s even a path for Ron DeSantis to get the nomination, uh, of the Republican Party either in 2024. And the reason is that Trump, as we know, has declared that he is a presidential candidate. Um, he, the, the party elites and the party establishment think he’s a. They’re coming out against him.

[00:25:31] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: You’re starting to see more and more people saying that, but the base still seems to be with him or at least a really hardcore 30% of the base, because again, he’s a Goldwater figure in the sense that he has delivered that base, the kind of, uh, just absolute over the top extremism and culture wars that thrills them, and they might not wanna turn to somebody else.

[00:25:52] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: And it’s not clear that Iran DeSantis can deliver them what they want. And it’s also not clear. In a Republican primaries that if Trump has that 30%, if there’s anyone who could stop him, particularly if there’s, you know, 12 other candidates running, or 15 other candidates as there were in 2000. And

[00:26:09] Jeremi: if he can get, um, the MyPillow guy, uh, Mike Lindell elected as the head of the Republican Party, which he seems to be trying to do.

[00:26:18] Jeremi: Yeah.

[00:26:18] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: Um, that probably isn’t gonna happen, but never say never .

[00:26:23] Jeremi: So, so Jeff, I think this, this discussion leads us to the, the core question for, for this podcast and for every episode. Uh, how should we understand our democracy today then? If we’re hearing from you very persuasively that this midterm election signifies, uh, that our divisions are quite solid, unfortunately, that they’re not going away, that there are swing voters, but nonetheless, we’re a deeply divided country and that the extremes within the Republican party in particular, Are likely to hold on and likely to still dominate the party going forward, that this is not gonna go back to the Republican party of MIT, Romney, or even Ronald Reagan.

[00:27:03] Jeremi: Um, how should we understand where our democracy is? How should we understand what the possibilities are for productive policy making and productive politics of any kind in this environment? Well,

[00:27:15] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: I’m usually the most pessimistic person in the room, Jeremy. But at this particular moment, at least, I’m not actually feeling quite as pessimistic as the scenario that you laid out because I do think that it is significant that this is the third successive defeat that the Republican party has suffered following, uh, the leadership of Trump and the approach of Trump, uh, the approach of.

[00:27:37] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: Divisive culture, war, uh, endless kind of grievance, uh, because after all, they suffered big losses in the house in 2018. Uh, they lost the presidency as well in 2020. And here they’ve lost or at least underperformed, uh, again in 2022. So, you know, repeated defeat actually will. Teach a party that something new is needed.

[00:27:58] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: And I actually continue to feel that the American people as a whole, uh, are actually still somewhere in the middle. And that there actually are genuine, popular majorities waiting for whichever party can actually moderate it itself to the extent that it can actually seize them if it can actually, uh, minimize the kind of drawbacks of their intense but unpopular.

[00:28:23] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: Bases and extreme wings and you know, it’s all very well for me. I’m not a politician. It’s all very me, well made for me to say that that would take a politician of genius to accomplish this. But I think, you know, part of the American genius is that we do surface such people from time to time. Um, and so certainly on the Republican side, I can tell you that there probably are majorities available to the Republican candidate who can say we need to balance the budget, but it has to be equally shared.

[00:28:52] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: S. Um, we need to maintain a, a strong global order, which includes, uh, a role for global trade, but one in which the benefits of trade are more equitably divided than they have been so far. Uh, we understand that we are a federal, uh, nation, that there will be states where abortion will be not available, but.

[00:29:11] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: Most American people seem to believe, uh, that they want abortion available in the first trimester, but with restrictions thereafter, and that might be the approach we pursue. Uh, and you can kind of go through the lists here, you know, where the extreme position, which is embraced certainly by the Republican side to some extent by the democratic side, is not the popular position, and it actually might be possible to achieve popular majorities through taking the more, um, moderate.

[00:29:36] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: Um, but again, that’s easy for me to prescribe, much more difficult for an actual politician to accomplish in practice.

[00:29:41] Jeremi: It, it sounds like you’re asking for a Republican Bill Clinton.

[00:29:45] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: Uh, you know, I think what I’m asking for is a Republican equivalent of the Democratic Leadership Council, which was what happened on the Democratic side after they’d suffered repeated defeats in the wake of George McGovern’s, uh, nomination.

[00:29:59] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: Democratic, uh, presidential candidate in 1972. And it eventually required the leadership of Clinton and particularly some other governors, particularly a lot of Southern governors, uh, to sort of turn around the perception of the Democratic party. Uh, and to make the American people feel that in fact it was the Democratic Party, it was closer to the mainstream than the Republicans.

[00:30:17] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: Um, and that all the stuff they were hearing about the extremes was not representative of where the party really was. And I think that’s something that needs to be done on the Republican side. Whether it can be done that I’m not so sure. I

[00:30:29] Zachary: did wanna ask you your thoughts on, uh, the albeit fragmented democratic agenda that seems to be, uh, out there, uh, the, the sort of, if you will, unity agenda that Biden tried to run on in 2020.

[00:30:44] Zachary: Because a lot of what he’s saying about there still being swing voters and, uh, there being this, this middle path seems to have been proven true, at least in your mind in this election. Do you see that as a long lasting winning strategy for the.

[00:30:58] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: So that’s a really perceptive question, Zachary. And since I’m not a Democrat, I’m not sure that I know the answer or that anyone should accept the answer that I have.

[00:31:08] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: Um, I think Biden got the nomination because he was the most moderate Democrat running. Um, and he got really sort of the king maker nod from Jim Clyburn in South Carolina, who’s also, I think, uh, a moderate on the whole. Um, I think he is not consistently governed as a moderate, and in particular, the Democrats took a while to realize that in fact, uh, There was no way for the progressives to coerce the rest of the party into adopting their positions just because the base happened to believe in them strongly, that in fact, Joe Mansion and Kirsten Cinema exercised a veto and that they had no choice if they wanted to pass anything, but to work together.

[00:31:47] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: And I think Nancy Pelosi also understood that very strongly, and that ultimately is why you did have the Inflation Reduction Act passed and a number of other fairly significant acts of legislation, some of which actually passed, uh, with Republican support. At least some Republican support. Right. Uh, I think that’s probably the way forward, at least for the Democrats, maybe for the Republicans too.

[00:32:07] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: This negotiation among shifting ad hoc factions of deal makers on both the center left and the center. But that’s Uncongenial for people further out, the true believers, if you will, for the time being. They seem to be accepting Joe Biden in this role of someone who may give sympathetic voice to the progressives, but ultimately whose feelings are with the deal makers.

[00:32:30] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: Um, But I don’t know, uh, hard to say whether they can sustain that approach or if the Republicans can do better.

[00:32:37] Jeremi: So, uh, final question, Jeff, and the one we always like to close on, what should our listeners who agree with much of what you’ve said who believe in, um, centris pragmatism, it doesn’t mean they aren’t progressives or conservatives, but.

[00:32:54] Jeremi: In, in spite of those proclivities on certain issues, still also believe in getting legislation through and, uh, basic functioning of government and democracy. Uh, what should they be doing? What, what role should they play in their communities as political actors, young voters like Zachary? How should they be trying to encourage, uh, movement toward the center?

[00:33:16] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: Um, you know, I think that there’s two kinds of moderation that are out there, uh, and they’re very different and it’s important to distinguish between them. One is the kind that just says, okay, you say 10, I say zero. Therefore the answer is five. Uh, that’s not really satisfying to anyone and it’s not actually a real viable political program.

[00:33:38] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: Um, I think I’d actually like to bring this discussion back to something which is really more in your field, Jeremy, uh, because I heard you talk at the American Enterprise Institute to a somewhat skeptical audience of conservatives who were all up in arms about critical racial theory and, uh, the 1619 project and, and things like that.

[00:33:57] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: And we’re wondering whether your wonderful new book, uh, civil War, uh, by other means was maybe siding with, uh, the progressives. Um, you know, I. There’s actually a lot of room out there for a history, which is neither, uh, which is, which isn’t beholden to either Extreme Yes. Which isn’t either the 1619 project or the executable, uh, 1776 commission report, which in its own way is, is, is even more of a distortion of American history.

[00:34:26] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: I think the American people can be trusted with honesty. You know, we are a great nation who’ve accomplished amazing things. Uh, we are an exceptional nation and we have atrocities in our past, and we have to hold both of those thoughts in mind. We have to be proud of our country while understanding that there have been some terrible legacies, which continue to the present day.

[00:34:46] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: And I think your book strikes that balance. And it’s hard to find balance, uh, you know, much as it is hard to walk across a tightrope. Um, but it’s that kind of balance, which we have to. And that means being open-minded, and that means listening to what people have to say on both sides. And it means arriving at some of your own independent decisions.

[00:35:05] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: And it means ultimately trying to figure out who you trust and then giving your trust to the people who deserve that trust. So that’s the kind of approach that I’d like to see this whole take. I. I, I

[00:35:14] Jeremi: think that’s beautifully stated, and thank you for your, your kind words about my book, but I, I, I think you, you really, you capture a, a vision of what we might call, um, deliberative politics, right?

[00:35:25] Jeremi: Which is sort of really focused on trying to understand and deal with a balance of good and bad, and. And bring those issues together in a way that’s productive rather than choosing sides. And I think deliberative

[00:35:39] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: politics is exactly what I’d like to see more of. That’s

[00:35:41] Jeremi: fantastic. Uh, Zachary, what do you think is that possible?

[00:35:45] Jeremi: Are, are, are Jeff and I being too pie in the sky here? Are we sounding like, like historians in a, in a messy political world that we don’t understand? I would hope it’s

[00:35:53] Zachary: possible. I think if, if, if the Trump era showed us or we’re not really through with the Trump era, maybe, but if the Trump presidency or the, the, the Trump administration showed us one thing, it’s the dangers of.

[00:36:06] Zachary: Of incompetent government. And I would hope that young people like myself who are voting for the first time, uh, in these elections, uh, have a renewed sense of the importance of competent government, uh, and of practical government, uh, as well as a practical politics. But I do think that there’s, there’s, um, I, I think that there are some institutional challenges that our country faces, uh, and uh, that I think in some ways were reflected in the turnout, uh, and the election, uh, that we just discussed, uh, that, that need to be addressed.

[00:36:40] Zachary: That can’t necessarily be addressed through, through the, through one party or the

[00:36:44] Jeremi: other. And I think some of those institutional challenges are, are legacies that, that no one necessarily thinks are appropriate, but no one knows how to change. I mean, the electoral College being one example of that, right.

[00:36:57] Jeremi: Zachary? Right.

[00:36:58] Zachary: I think, I think in, in some ways they’re more constitutional, uh, than they are. Uh, Partisan.

[00:37:04] Jeremi: Right? Right. But they don’t, it’s, it’s not as if people want to affirm those institutional practices. There’s just no agreement on what to do in place of them. So we simply stick with them. Right. Uh, and that, that’s a kind of, uh, sort of damocles hanging, hanging over us.

[00:37:17] Jeremi: Jeff, any thoughts on that?

[00:37:19] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: You know, uh, I think there is no doubt that the electoral college never functioned in the way that, uh, the framers intended. Uh, and further that they simply didn’t foresee, uh, a lot of the things that continued to warp and divide us, uh, both in politics and as a nation. Uh, in particular the sort of, uh, complete monopolization almost, uh, of rural voters, uh, voters in left behind Postindustrial towns.

[00:37:46] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: By the Republican party, right? And the equivalent, uh, monopolization of urban dwelling voters and increasingly the college educated, uh, by the Democratic Party. Right? Uh, and I think that there needs to be, on the one hand, more outreach by. The one party to, uh, the people who don’t support it, uh, that in fact Democrats need to care just as much about the plight of, uh, victims of the opioid epidemic out there in the red states as Republicans need to care about the victims of gun violence, uh, in blue cities.

[00:38:19] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: Yes. Um, but again, that’s gonna be, uh, a challenge for both parties, which really at this point, uh, are just so much better reward. In their primaries, and even to some extent, uh, when they lose elections by playing to the base rather than trying to actually unite us as a

[00:38:35] Jeremi: country. Right. Right. No, I think that’s very well said, Jeff.

[00:38:37] Jeremi: I, I think though you have pointed to us, uh, how we can see, uh, a, a. A real possibility for deliberative politics despite these difficulties and challenges, uh, in this midterm election because, uh, as you said already, um, there’s so much evidence that many voters made intelligent, thoughtful, well-informed decisions, uh, not voting for election deniers.

[00:39:02] Jeremi: Clearly, most of the voters in many areas recognize. That the election deniers were wrong, whether those voters were Democrats or Republicans. And that seems to have driven things and that provides a basis for some factual, deliberative politics, wouldn’t you say?

[00:39:19] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: Yeah. I think a lot of voters, uh, cast votes that had real personal costs to themselves, um, that they might really have preferred the other party, but couldn’t stomach the candidate.

[00:39:29] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: Um, and I think that’s actually a sign of responsible citizen. Yep.

[00:39:33] Jeremi: And I think that’s a perfect note to close on because our podcast each week is built around the notion that historical perspective can provide us with, uh, not only a basis for understanding deliberative politics, uh, but also some hope in building more deliberative politics.

[00:39:50] Jeremi: And as the inspiration for our podcast, uh, Franklin Roosevelt himself in another time of deep partisanship. Economic challenge and, uh, international challenge as well, uh, articulated a vision of American politics where each generation would write a new chapter, not fighting the old battles, but finding new, uh, areas of agreement, not on all issues.

[00:40:15] Jeremi: But on issues that could move the country forward for economic reconstruction, for international security, uh, and many related topics. And, uh, in so far as our podcast is inspired by Franklin Roosevelt, I think we’ve had actually a very rooseveltian discussion. Uh, maybe not exactly Jeff, what you would’ve expected , but.

[00:40:34] Jeremi: But I think, I think, uh, Jeff, you’ve really laid out a vision for us, uh, that we can see emerging, we hope, uh, from this midterm election. I, I want to encourage all of our listeners again to follow, uh, Dr. Jeffrey Kappa service, uh, and to follow his, his work, read his books. Uh, I think this podcast has clearly shown how understanding the history of the Republican party.

[00:40:58] Jeremi: And American Electoral Politics, uh, provides us with, with real leverage for thinking about the, the difficult politics of our own time. Uh, Jeff, thank you so much for sharing your time and your insights with us.

[00:41:10] Dr. Geoff Kabaservice: Uh, thank you, Jeremy. Thank you, Zachary. It’s a pleasure to talk to you again.

[00:41:13] Jeremi: And Zachary, thank you for your, uh, thoughtful sonnet this week.

[00:41:17] Jeremi: And thank you, most of all, to our loyal listeners for joining us for this episode of This is,

[00:41:24] Outro: This podcast is produced by the Liberal Arts Its Development Studio and the College of Liberal Arts at the University of Texas at Austin. The music in this episode was written and recorded by Heroes Cortini.

[00:41:35] Outro: Stay tuned for a new episode every week. You can find this is Democracy on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, and Stitcher.

[00:41:44] Outro: See you next

[00:41:44] Outro: time.