This is Democracy – Episode 198: Hungary and the Future of European Security

This is Democracy – Episode 198: Hungary and the Future of European Security
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[00:00:00] This is democracy, a podcast about the people of

[00:00:09] the United States,

[00:00:11] a podcast about citizenship, about engaging with politics and the world around you. A podcast about educating yourself on today’s important issues and how to have a voice in what

[00:00:22] Jeremi: happens next.

[00:00:26] Welcome to our new episode of this is democracy. Today. We’re going to talk about a country that always stands out in any historical examination of, uh, the Western world, such as there is a Western world and examinations of European security. Uh, this is the country of. Which historically has, uh, played an absolutely pivotal role in every era of modern development in Europe.

[00:00:52] And it’s a country that always stands out because of its linguistic uniqueness, its historical uniqueness. Um, and uh, again, the role it plays often between, uh, large empires, uh, to its east and to its west. Uh, today hungry is led by Victor Orban, an elected leader, uh, of hungry, who a. In the eyes of many, particularly in Western European, United States is not a fully participating member of NATO and the EU yet, of course, hungry is a full member of NATO and EU.

[00:01:26] And in the context of the war in Ukraine, the role of Hungary is particularly important in thinking about a future east-west relations and the development of the European union and NATO responses to. We’re fortunate today to be joined by a colleague and friend who knows more about hungry and the wider European landscape, uh, than almost anyone else.

[00:01:48] I know. Uh, this is Lawrence radar, who we’ve had on the podcast. I think before, uh, he is a professor of instruction at the LBJ school at the university of Texas at Austin. He also served as a press officer in the European parliament, which is the directly elected legislature of the European union. And in that role, uh, he.

[00:02:07] Gained a lot of insight, I think is someone who managed relations, uh, for the press Corps and for many different, uh, members of the European parliament on its foreign affairs committee. He’s written quite a bit and done research on these experiences and on European politics, the European union, and, uh, Questions of democracy and security in Europe.

[00:02:29] So we’re fortunate to have his European expertise and his Hungarian expertise. Uh, he is a native of hungry, in fact, uh, so Lawrence, thank you for joining us today. Before we turn to our discussion with Lawrence, we have of course, Mr. Zachary series’ poem. What’s the title of your poem? Today’s Zachary in between.

[00:02:49] Let’s hear it

[00:02:50] Zachary: in between. We are in between the lampposts in Budapest. Count 1, 2, 3 up the banks. And while the sun sets you count the minutes until darkness 3, 2, 1. They are laughing at us. The river is laughing at us indignantly. We strut along its sides, stare at each other from across the way. And with cold feet, we Wade into the rivers depths to emerge redeemed or covered in its cold sludge in between counting 1, 2, 3, until it is all gone in between the days go by 4, 5, 6, and still we are in between.

[00:03:35] They are laughing at us from oceans away. They are laughing at us because we couldn’t even bear to see the street musician covered in his silver paint flinch, or tip his hat or hold up the newspaper in the square and wave it at us as if it were supposed to mean something. In between we are in between the lampposts, count up to a million along the banks of the Danube or the sunsets.

[00:04:01] While the missiles can be heard falling some miles away. 1, 2, 3, you have forgotten who you are. Blink thrice 1, 2, 3, and the lights will all flicker on one by one. Blink thrice 1, 2, 3. And maybe you’ll miss the end of the world.

[00:04:25] Jeremi: Your, your poems accurate. It really feels to me like a late 19th century, Budapest or city of one kind or another with the lampposts and the lights.

[00:04:33] Is that what you’re going for

[00:04:34] Zachary: here? I guess. So I think my poem is really about, uh, hungry, but also the place of, of, of where my ancestors came from, which is hungry, but also other parts of central and Eastern Europe, uh, and how they are both in between. East and west, but also between past and future. And I think, and I think some of the pathologies that seem to come out in your bond regime are the pathologies of, of that kind of trauma, but also that sense of historical weight.

[00:05:00] Jeremi: Yeah. Yeah. That’s actually a very interesting way of thinking about it. Uh, Lawrence, as we think about. The war in Ukraine is, is Zachary steam accurate for understanding, um, that the Hungarian government’s position as, as both a member of NATO and the EU, and also an ally of Russia, does this, this has helped to inform our understanding.

[00:05:21] Dr. Lorinc Redei: Absolutely. I think, um, even last time that was on this podcast, I was wondering how I was going to start. And then, um, uh, Zachary’s poem, give us the perfect intro. And it’s the same thing today. And that’s exactly what I was gonna start with is that. Now I’m getting prime minister has been especially clever and astute and figuring out exactly that space of in-between that he can, he can hold both as a staunch ally of Putin, which he has been for years now.

[00:05:50] Um, as well as sort of keeping a foot in, uh, in the Western world, in, in these important international organizations that you and NATO. Right. So what about. Um, hidden from anybody, right? That he is an admirer of Vladimir Putin and the close ally of his, um, they share a lot of, uh, their world view, uh, this illiberal nationalism that, um, that they think is the, uh, is the only reasonable response to sort of globalized liberal, um, encroachment and.

[00:06:29] At the same time. Of course, um, Hungary has remained a, a member of the European union and of NATO and, um, uh, has not even really flirted with the idea of leaving either of these organizations. And I think what about has been able to get away with this, um, kind of in two ways, right? He has gotten away with the domestically because he controls the media landscape and hungry.

[00:06:51] Um, he can use TV, radio, newspapers, all of these are in the hands of his allies. Um, to push whatever message he wants to the population. So, uh, this kind of in-between, this is, is justified on a daily basis in the press, wherever you look. And the only independent Pressley that’s left in Hungary’s online, which except for basically in Budapest, doesn’t reach the vast majority of population.

[00:07:15] And then the second question is, you know, and this is, I think the tougher one. To explain, which is how avant has gotten away with this internationally, right? Why the EU and NATO haven’t responded and why he hasn’t been punished for this kind of in-between this. And I would suggest this because he’s very clever at walking that line.

[00:07:33] He never goes so far as to trigger a real backlash. He’s been a thorn in the side of his Western polys for, for years, but he’s always kind of a nuisance and never really a threat, never really an existential threat. And so he knows exactly how far he can push his Western allies and when he needs to concede or climb down, um, I think actually, you know, the dynamics of how this works are actually quite different in NATO versus in the EU.

[00:07:58] But we can get into that later.

[00:08:00] Jeremi: I actually that’s exactly where I was. I was thinking we could go a Lawrence, uh, H how do we see this in practice? Maybe let’s start with NATO at a moment when, uh, NATO is sending in an unprecedented number of arms and other sources of support to the Ukrainian. The government often to Poland, but sometimes through hungry, how do we understand Hungary’s role in that, uh, operation?

[00:08:25] Dr. Lorinc Redei: So I think that the relationship between Audubon and NATO is interesting, because what about has never been the used NATO as a boogeyman? Um, he has never openly criticized NATO or questioned Hungary’s NATO membership. And for the most part, he has also reframed from. Vetoing NATO initiatives or from creating real trouble within the organization.

[00:08:51] There are a few exceptions to this, but, um, for the most part, um, he hasn’t really been, um, very active in trying to undermine NATO. Um, and you know, there might be different reasons that there’s, I think the first is. Um, NATO was kind of an all or nothing deal. Um, the main point of NATO is the, is article five, right?

[00:09:12] Which basically means that, uh, an attack on one natal member is considered an attack on all. And therefore, um, there’s a huge benefit to Hungary for being under the United States as nuclear umbrella and be defended from any and, um, at all, um, military encroachments, um, by this Alliance. Um, but it’s not.

[00:09:34] You can really get concessions from there, or that would be economic or political or diplomatic, um, NATO doesn’t have that kind of, um, power. It’s not that kind of institution. So there’s no real point in trying to finesse this in any way. And then the other reason is, you know, within NATO, the most important, uh, State as the United States and as we’ve seen over the past decade or so, um, a big chunk of the political elite in the United States, especially, uh, on one side of the political spectrum actually looks to advance as a, um, as an inspiration or as a, uh, a model to follow.

[00:10:15] And so. There’s also less of this, um, ideological, um, opposition, I think between NATO and, uh, and hungry because, um, is it the big footprint that, that the United States has on NATO? So

[00:10:28] Jeremi: is that an issue though? Now Lawrence with. As you say there having been a kind of, at least a great deal of comfort between or bond and many of the people around Donald Trump, particularly Tucker Carlson, who in fact, spent time with Orban and promoted him on his show.

[00:10:45] Uh, is there no attention that you have in a sense, Donald Trump’s nemesis, Joe Biden is president and, and it sort of anti-Trump government in the United States, has that changed the relationship between hungry and.

[00:10:59] Dr. Lorinc Redei: I think it has changed the, the U S Hungarian relationship a little bit, but it’s more that instead of, uh, he very frequent backslapping right now, there’s basically just science.

[00:11:10] It’s not like Joe Biden has made a priority to. Uh, Victor Audubon for all of the steps that he’s taking to build an illiberal state, um, within the, within Europe, um, there’s been some quiet rebukes, um, Biden had this summit of democracies and hungry. Wasn’t invited and these kinds of things, but it hasn’t really been vocal or really important.

[00:11:34] Um, and at the same time, I think you any, um, any foreign states, the United States who looks at the. Future of, uh, of their state’s relationship with, with the U S um, probably has this thought that, you know, you never know who’s going to be empowering two years. Um, and the. The actual, um, links between the conservative movement in the United States and Audubon have, have only grown stronger since then.

[00:12:02] I mean, just this past week, um, the conservative political action conference SeaPak, um, organized its first, um, meeting in Europe, in Budapest with basically all of, um, the Audubon government taking center stage and being given this, this platform to talk about how they have built up their system. Um, so I think these things that are being, being forged and in our.

[00:12:25] Are stronger than ever. Um, but of course, you know, for that to really have an impact, of course, um, you know, um, that we need to be, uh, another change in government in the United States, but I don’t think that’s out of the question. Yeah,

[00:12:37] Jeremi: that’s extraordinary. I did not know that that sea pack, which is one of the strongest, most influential conservative organizations that they actually had just done an event in Budapest with our, I didn’t.

[00:12:48] I did not know that it’s actually

[00:12:50] Dr. Lorinc Redei: very interesting. This made a lot of news and hungry, and I have not seen any press about this in the United States. And I’m, uh, you know, me, I’m not a conspiracy theorist, but the fact that nobody is talking about this about the fact that, uh, an openly illiberal regime is basically hosting the biggest sort of conservative, um, talk shop, right.

[00:13:12] Um, and, and policy platform. In the United States at this quite extraordinary to me. Um, and actually some of the media that have been talking about this, um, about this event had actually been talking about the fact that they are the only ones talking about it. Um, so if you look at the English language press, it’s almost just, there’s just a few.

[00:13:33] Uh, a few newspapers that are reporting on it, the guardian being one of them. But it’s, it’s really interesting to, to, to know that, you know, you who followed the region quite closely, even didn’t hear about this, right?

[00:13:41] Jeremi: No, that’s extraordinary. It’s particularly interesting

[00:13:44] Zachary: to me too, because, uh, I think that, uh, we as Americans have this idea that, uh, what happens politically in other countries is really just ancillary to our own political disputes.

[00:13:55] But it seems like this is proving that it’s almost fueling or at least justifying a lot of what’s going on. At home. Uh, but I think also there, there remains a broader question, which is why should Americans care about the regime and hungry beyond simply, uh, the way it affects us? Because it seems like there, there have been a lot of violations, not just of democratic norms, uh, but of human rights that are going on in hungry that need to be addressed, uh, by our government, considering that there is such a close relationship between.

[00:14:27] Dr. Lorinc Redei: Yeah. I mean, the question of, um, of, of why the us should care. I, I, I hate to be so flippant about it, but I’m not sure that the United States cares all that much. And I think that’s one of the reasons why there hasn’t been really much pushback from the Biden ministration on, on, um, uh, on all of these issues is because, um, they have more important things on their plate.

[00:14:50] Right. Um, I think the way in which it matters, right. Right now hungry is the main locus or agent of this unity within the European union and for the United States. I think, especially with this conflict, um, uh, that, uh, Russia, this war that Russia is waging in, in Ukraine, it’s really important to have for United Europe.

[00:15:14] That’s um, Hand-in-hand with the United States on sanctions policy on arms exports on supporting the Ukrainian regime. Um, up until now, actually, I’ve been very surprised at how seamlessly the United States and Europe have been cooperating, um, on supporting the Ukrainian population. And that I think, um, is the, the real risk to European union.

[00:15:39] The on that is actually the ongoing. Hmm.

[00:15:43] Jeremi: So, so maybe we can talk about that a bit. Lawrence, uh, w you, you, you gave a very good description of, uh, Hungary’s unique role with regard to NATO. The EU obviously cares about a lot of these issues, uh, particularly the issues around human rights issues around borders and various other things.

[00:16:02] How has Hungary’s relationship with the EU evolve the last year or two?

[00:16:08] Dr. Lorinc Redei: So I actually think that. The change has not been terribly radical, um, in the sense that what vans behavior in the EU, um, has been relatively, um, stable in the sense that he has. Vetoed several important you initiatives, um, whether it’s on human rights in China or, um, and the middle east on migration policy or on currently the one that he’s holding and learning over the European union is the, um, uh, he’s threatening to veto the oil and gas embargo on Russia that the EU is hoping to pass next week as a next council meeting.

[00:16:52] Um, so he has been doing this for years. Um, and again, I think the, the w the reason that he’s gotten away with it in the us, because he knows exactly how far he can push it. So if you think about it, you know, Hungary has vetoed several, um, sanctions packages against Russia, but in the end has always relented.

[00:17:12] Um, it has actually been complying with the, um, EU sanctions on Russia that have been in place ever since Russia took Crimea. So in a lot of ways, there’s. Uh, chest beating. There’s a lot of, um, rhetoric from water van. That’s very anti you. Um, and at the same time, there’s, there’s more, um, actual policy in which, um, very quietly, he kind of climbs down when he, when he realizes that he needs to.

[00:17:41] And so the reason for that, I think is that. What about desperately needs? You funds to keep his and power, right? Because his, his power is, is in short by, by the way that, um, he can distribute, uh, the various means of corruption. Um, you funds to, to his, his political. And so the EU plays this dual role for him where he, it provides this foil against which he rails all the time.

[00:18:07] Um, you know, his political message is usually that he’s protecting the Hungarian population from, uh, from an overreach in Brussels, but then you also provide the funds that allow him to save power. Right. So I think it’s a much more complicated relationship. Um, and he’s, he’s been, I think, extremely adept at knowing exactly where that line is.

[00:18:25] Now the question. At a certain point, does he make a mistake and step over line? That’s too important for, uh, for the European union at which point, um, this kind of falls apart, but for now he’s been very adept at managing this. And to be honest, the European union has been also very weak at, um, uh, you know, allowing this to happen and, and, um, being content with these kinds of last minute condition.

[00:18:50] Jeremi: Uh, but, but I wonder Lawrence, have we reached a breaking point on the question of, uh, Russian energy, right? It, it does seem that there’s a consensus in the EU to create not an immediate, um, stoppage to a Russian oil and gas coming into Europe. That’s not feasible, but to put Europe on track, to liberate itself from dependence on Russia, Russian oil and gas, and so far, it does appear or.

[00:19:15] As opposed to that move by Europe. And he could under under EU rules, he can veto that as you referred to it. Would that be a breaking point if he sticks on that issue or do you see him not sticking on that issue? Where do you see that going? So

[00:19:30] Dr. Lorinc Redei: I think we will have a decent answer to that question next week when the, when the European council meets and I, I see a couple of potential outcomes, right?

[00:19:37] So the first is that, um, or Amanda is going to hold out until the very last minute, um, so that he can get some sort of concessions from the EU, maybe a longer transition period or. You funds to help offset the, uh, the rising energy costs. That’s such an embargo would come with that. So basically just hold out until he’s bought off at the last minute.

[00:19:56] Um, the other alternative I see is that, um, you know, hungry will effectively block this move. What that would tell me is actually. Europe was less United on this, then it may have seen that from the outside. Right. We know that the German government is not exactly raring to wean itself off of oil and gas coming from Russia.

[00:20:21] It’s a, it’s a really heavy lift for them. They’re very dependent on, um, Germany is very dependent on Russian while the specialty. Um, and so it could actually be to Germany’s benefit that, um, you know, Hungary makes it seem like they’re the ones vetoing this and, and quietly Germany is actually thankful for this.

[00:20:40] Um, the third alternative and this, I think would be your question of if there’s a rupture, there’s talk now of, uh, of, um, I’m not quite EU embargo on Russia, which we basically mean that the 26 EU member states without hungry would agree among themselves to, um, to an oil and gas embargo. And this has come up.

[00:21:01] Um, several people have suggested this is kind of in the conversation. Now, if we see that happen, That I think is a signal that the European union, um, is United and has decided that that Hungary is an outcast and they will basically just ignore them and go ahead with, with, with their, um, with their Russia sanctions policy, as they see fit and kind of let hungry sort of, um, you know, flap in the wind.

[00:21:26] And that I think would be, uh, a, um, A big marker of change. And I would expect them to very quickly come back into the fold. Um, as soon as he can, without losing face.

[00:21:40] Jeremi: Can you do that Lawrence?

[00:21:43] Dr. Lorinc Redei: So this is a. I always liked this question because the answer was always, um, no, but of course you cannot in the sense that then it wouldn’t be an EU embargo because by definition it’s not the entire EU that’s doing it.

[00:21:58] Um, but you’ve seen these kinds of, um, arrangements, right? Where a lot of EU member states agreed to do something. And essentially for all intents and purposes looks like an EU. Mechanism, even though technically and legally, it’s not, you’ve seen this in the, um, after the 2008 financial crisis where they basically wanted to create a bailout fund, um, and they didn’t want to call it a bailout fund and they didn’t, uh, the member states did not want to associate this with the European union’s institutions.

[00:22:27] So they basically created something. That was parallel, but looked and talked and, um, sounded exactly like a, uh, an EU bailout fund. So that’s basically a political decision. They can do it. Of course, it’s a little bit more complicated because you need to figure out, you know, how to, um, uh, keep Hungary from basically being a, um, a conduit for, um, know illegal Russian gas coming in, but was those things are fixed.

[00:22:52] Hmm.

[00:22:53] Jeremi: Hmm. Now, do you see a, within hungry, uh, opinion on or Bon or least opinion on Hungarian policy changing as a consequence of all these dynamics that we’ve just discussed? So

[00:23:07] Dr. Lorinc Redei: what I think is really interesting here, and to me, it was also surprising is that. Russia and Ukraine has actually increased what advanced popularity in hungry.

[00:23:19] Um, and you saw this in the elections that just happened. Um, what about one, one these elections, um, with a big wide margin of support, um, and, and one, it basically on a message that he is the one that should be trusted with Hungary’s, um, Russia, Ukraine policy. Um, he basically argued that. He’s the one that can keep Hungarians out of this war.

[00:23:46] Um, and the opposition would, would are, are basically our warmongers who wanted to jump into this conflict. Um, and it seemed like it was a winning message. So, um, so he actually has been strengthened, I think, by his, um, by this kind of balancing in between, um, And, um, you know, I think he’s actually strengthened his hold on, on, on, uh, on getting institutions, um, uh, just yesterday or the day before his government announced a new state of emergency, uh, extensively due to, to the war on Ukraine.

[00:24:18] Um, uh, previous state of emergency had been placed in this COVID, but that had kind of, um, um, gone away. So, you know, he’s, he’s popular at home. He’s strong and, um, and well entrenched in power and he’s, I think unlikely to go anywhere anytime. Hmm.

[00:24:34] Jeremi: Wow. Wow. And does the movement by, uh, Finland and Sweden to join NATO to countries that were formally neutral?

[00:24:43] Uh, does that change the dynamic, uh, within hungry and for Oban? Or is that more of the same? I

[00:24:48] Dr. Lorinc Redei: think that question itself is not particularly salient and hungry either for or bound for anybody else. Um, I, I have a tough time imagining that Orban would. We’re trying to veto of Finnish or Swedish accessioned to NATO.

[00:25:09] I think he also knows that he can hide behind Ancora and, um, uh, uh, president Adeline’s statement that, you know, he he’s, you know, th th the Turkish government is trying to get some concessions before, um, before, you know, saying, saying yes to that. So, um, uh, so what about, what about Nora has government had.

[00:25:28] I said anything on, on this that that’s, that makes it seem like they would be ready to veto this. Um, they’ve been kind of straddling the fence on this, um, in general, but, um, but I don’t think that, um, that that’s going to make much of a difference. Um, you know, again, NATO is not a very important talking point or organization against which for van can set himself up as the protector of them gay a nation.

[00:25:52] So it’s just not really very much in the conversation. So what you

[00:25:57] Zachary: seem to describe that as sort of a leader who is, uh, has almost complete control at home, but in some ways, a little leverage abroad, at least, uh, within NATO. Uh, but why do you think that. Of his sort of, what do you think that of his sort of a rise, at least in terms of Providence in the American?

[00:26:18] Right. Uh, because I think at least to, to me, it’s very interesting that the hero, uh, of the American right nowadays seems to be more Victor or bot than Donald Trump sometimes. Uh, do you think that that, that is sort of significant of a, of a broader international profile that he’s trying to build as a sort of leader of, of the right around.

[00:26:39] Dr. Lorinc Redei: So, first of all, yes. I think he does have ambitions to become, um, a global figure of this. Um, you know, I think what he calls a liberal democracy. Right. Um, I think it’s more on the European stage that he’s trying to do this. Um, he has, for the longest time, tried to become the leader of, um, nationalist, populist movements.

[00:27:05] In Europe, trying to rally, you know, Francis and, um, you know, a bunch of different, um, uh far-right or at least populous parties across, um, across Europe, um, with not too much success, to be honest. Um, but I think that to, to your first question of why he’s so popular, I think you, you, you hit the nail on the head.

[00:27:29] I mean, he has some of these characteristics of Trump, but, um, but he’s just much smarter. Um, and he actually knows how to pull the levers of power. So I think for American, um, uh, conservatives who believe in this kind of world view of, uh, more, you know, nationalists liberal worldview, um, he has shown exactly how you use legal means.

[00:27:56] To change constitutions to change laws, to. Uh, appoint people to certain key positions, right. Where, you know, nobody can, can, um, can accuse victim of launching a coup or taking power violently. Right? The, the, the genius of what he has done is that he’s actually just used democratic means. To hollow out a lot of those institutions that guarantee, um, democracy and liberal liberal rights.

[00:28:26] And that I think is very attractive to, um, to this brand of conservatism everywhere is, is, is that tactic right? Um, and so for that reason, I think he’s, he’s, he’s been quite popular. And then to your last question, which is about how Victor Orban is very popular at home. At the same time, not very influential internationally.

[00:28:49] I would just add a caveat to that. I don’t think he’s very influential within NATO, but I do think he’s influential in the EU. He’s been able to, um, get a lot of concessions from the European union. Get a lot of sweetheart deals, get a lot of, um, funding from the EU. Um, and he, you know, a lot of these, you know, if you look at the, uh, the press on.

[00:29:12] Um, the, the main things that you see in terms of unions right now are all about him. Everybody’s trying to figure out what to do about his, his veto. So he actually can set the agenda in the European union in a way that I think is, um, is quite.

[00:29:28] Jeremi: So, so I guess, uh, the, the big historical question I have and it, and it comes to a set of themes we explore every week, every week on the podcast, uh, trying to understand how much of the past we see in the present and what’s new today.

[00:29:43] That’s, that’s really not a repeat of the past. Uh, I struggle with that and trying to think about the geopolitics of Europe then today, uh, it is our bond, a sign of a Europe. That’s going to back to two camps back to an east versus west, or is it more a return of what Milan Kiandra and others call the unique central European identity?

[00:30:04] Um, that, that, that has a curious view of liberalism, a different perspective on democracy and stands between the two big Eastern. Powers. How do you see this and that historical framework Lawrence?

[00:30:18] Dr. Lorinc Redei: So I actually think that this is the wrong way to look at it. What I, when I look at this, I don’t see two camps.

[00:30:26] What I see is actually, especially on, on, on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. What I see is a Western camp and a lonely dude in a little tent in the forest. And that’s what, it’s not a camp. Um, that’s just, that’s just, uh, you know, uh, it’s a tent, as you said. Right. And so, so what I think is actually quite interesting here is precisely the fact that this has not led to a rift between the east and west, but it has led to is a rift within Eastern Europe.

[00:31:01] Um, if you just looked at, um, you know, the, the state of the European union, Two years ago, right. There was kind of an emerging, um, split between east and west on a lot of different issues. Right? You had Poland and Hungary and Slovenia with their leaders, all following the same kind of liberal path. Um, you seem to have this kind of two camps as you talked about, but that has actually disappeared.

[00:31:30] What I think you’ve seen in the past couple of months is really the disintegration of this Eastern European. Um, they used to be this thing called the Visha grab move, which was, you know, Poland, Hungary, Czech Republic, and Slovakia, um, who coordinated the lot on all sorts of EU issues to try to make sure that Eastern Europe was well-represented.

[00:31:48] They haven’t met since the Ukrainian conflict because the poles and the Slovaks have said that, um, they’re so disgusted by, by Viktor Orban and fence straddling on this issue that they don’t want to meet. And so, um, So you’ve actually seen a wedge being driven, not between east and west, I think, but between Eastern Europe and hungry itself.

[00:32:10] And so this is more a question. I think I’m hungry to becoming more isolated within, within Europe and even within Eastern Europe, um, because of, because of, uh, because of Russia. Um, and the other thing in terms of, you know, your question about the historical perspective, right? Mean thinking back to Hungarian history.

[00:32:31] I mean, however, he has never been on the right side of a war, not in the past 150 years. Right. And so, in a way, this is par for the course, unfortunately. Right. So if you’re looking for a still local analogies, right. Um, you know, how many years has it has never really chosen the right side and Hungary has never been able to avoid.

[00:32:57] Uh, war that has ranged on its borders, right? Hungry is a landlocked country that has sort of seen every single, um, um, you know, um, army traits through its, its territory, whether it was the Turks, whether it was the Austrians, whether it was the Germans, whether it was the Russians. Right. Um, and so this idea that somehow hungry can keep out of a war.

[00:33:20] That’s a European war is just, you know, to anybody who’s studied history. I think this is nonsense. Um, but that I think is, you know, uh, to a certain extent that, um, the, the, the historical analogy here, but, um, you know, The question of whether, whether history will repeat itself in that way. Of course, it’s, it’s a more different, well, and

[00:33:40] Jeremi: I, I guess one area for hope then is that so far hungry has at least cooperated with most of its, uh, Western allies in, in, in, in trying to address.

[00:33:51] Help the Ukrainian. So maybe they’re on the right side this time, if that’s the right side. Um, and I, and I guess, uh, the closing question we have for you, Lawrence, you know, as you know, we always like to close on an optimistic note, a well-informed and not naive, but still optimistic note. Um, if you were, um, sitting in Washington right now and, uh, advising, um, whoever it is in the state department and elsewhere, who who’s concerned about hungry.

[00:34:20] The Hungarian portfolio. What advice would you give them for nurturing a better relationship with, or bond for the purposes of strengthening NATO and the EU? Not, not, not pretending that our bond is ever going to accept that all the positions, the United States in Western Europe offer, but, but what kind of relationship do you see as a possibility that could be useful for both sides of that relationship?

[00:34:46] Dr. Lorinc Redei: That’s a tough one. I think. The, the traditional ideas of how to pressure or ban into being, um, you know, more friendly towards liberal norms in democracy and human rights, I think are all going to backfire because, um, it adds fuel to the fire that these Western countries that are trying to influence. Uh, the Hungarian political system.

[00:35:12] And what about is the only one that can protect the nation from that kind of interference? I think what I would say is to be very, very blunt with the European union that the United States supports the EU taking a much harder line on Hungary. And this is what I think there might be a sea change coming.

[00:35:33] Um, the European union has been very, very slow to respond to, um, corruption and to the, um, erosion of rule of law and, and, uh, democratic values in hungry. Um, but I think that that tide is turning and I don’t actually think it has very much to do with Russia. Actually. I think it’s just, it’s been a long time.

[00:35:59] Um, and I can, I can X I would expect that you funds are going to dry up relatively soon. Um, and there’s going to be many, many EU conditions on the rule of law that are going to come into force in the next couple of years. And I think having the USB very supportive of that, encouraging that, um, trying to, to hurry that along, um, would probably be my best bet.

[00:36:23] Okay. Other than that, and actually not very sure that there’s much that the United States government can do to shift, um, uh, to shift the political calculus of what van, um, because all the things that were, that would be real threats or, um, I think are just unreasonable. It’s the United States is not going to threaten to withdraw article five protections from hungry at this moment.

[00:36:52] So I think that would just be. Uh, you know, that’s not within the realm possible. So I think right now it’s just. Yeah, trying to, trying to support the EU, cracking down a lot more on this kind of a rule of law of acts like. Gotcha.

[00:37:05] Jeremi: Uh, it’s a very good point. You raised though in a certain way, the United States is more dependent on Orban and he has more leverage now because, uh, we D we don’t want him getting in the way of aid, shipments, and other efforts to help the Ukrainians, which he could get in the way of if he wanted to be more obstructionist.

[00:37:21] And as you pointed out, he has not been actually that obstructionist. So, um, in a sense, he has more leverage now than ever.

[00:37:28] Dr. Lorinc Redei: I think that’s true. And you know, the usual things in terms of how one, um, takes the, the long, the long game approach, right? Supporting independent journalism and investigative journalism and hungry, these kinds of things.

[00:37:42] But those at the end of the day, I’ll go into, um, you know, once there is enough, uh, political opposition to what van, those are going to come, come very much in handy, but those aren’t going to fix the problems over the next year or two. Those are long-term investments. Uh, democracy and the realism, um, uh, abroad, um, that, you know, I mean, you’ve studied the cold war, right.

[00:38:03] It took decades and decades of that to bear fruit. But when it did it guaranteed, you know, 20 years of absolutely American friendly allies in Eastern Europe. So I think it was worth the investment.

[00:38:16] Jeremi: Absolutely. Well said, well said Lawrence, Zachary, um, your, your poem in between, it seems to me, you know, captures some of the themes that, that Lawrence has, has articulated so well and themes.

[00:38:26] We come back to week after week that in some ways the future of democracy is defined. In the center and obvious places of power, but often in the, in between spaces. Uh, that’s true within societies. That’s true between societies. Um, does, does this discussion of hungry? Does it, does it resonate with, with the concerns that you think other young people have about foreign policy and democracy and future of Europe and European security?

[00:38:53] Zachary: Yes, I think it does. I think we as Americans have a very hypocrite. Uh, view of the European union as a dysfunctional institution. Uh, and I think that hopefully this crisis and, uh, it, uh, we’ll short of shore up the institutions of the European union, at least, uh, from a symbolic perspective, uh, That the European response to a hungry, his nascent authoritarianism and, uh, and sort of anti-Western, uh, response to the war in Ukraine is definitely going to be at the center of that, uh, European response.

[00:39:29] So I do think that it, it will inspire at least greater confidence in the European union. Goes well, uh, but if it goes badly, I think there is a, there is a real possibility that, uh, the European union will lose credibility in the eyes of the world. If it does not manage to respond to this crisis in Ukraine or continue to respond to this crisis in Ukraine

[00:39:52] Jeremi: with a United front.

[00:39:53] Interesting. So in a way the stakes are higher, I think, than before, uh, at least from a public relations perspective. Right, right. But it does, it does remind people, white man. Exactly. Which is an opportunity. Um, well, uh, Lawrence, thank you for joining us today. You, you released stated as only you can, the complex interconnections between, uh, this tent.

[00:40:13] We might call our bond on the side of the mountain, all the other powerful actors in camps, uh, around him. I love that metaphor. Lawrence, thank you for sharing your insights with us. Well, happy to be here and Zachary, thank you for your poem. Uh, and thank you most of all, uh, to our loyal listeners for joining us for this episode of this is Democracy.

[00:40:45] this podcast is produced by the liberal arts, its development studio and the college of liberal arts at the university of Texas at Austin. The music in this episode was written and recorded by Harris. Codine stay tuned for a new episode every week. You can find this is democracy on apple podcasts, Spotify, and Stitcher.

[00:41:05] See you next time.