This is Democracy – Episode 179: Ukraine Crisis

Jeremi: Welcome to our new episode of this is democracy.

This week, we are discussing the crisis in Ukraine. Uh, what looks like, uh, the terrible possibility of war, uh, from a Russian invasion of Ukraine or at the very least more violence and threatening, uh, challenges surrounding this. Uh, Ukraine is a country, of course, that has received extensive, uh, American aid.

Since the end of the cold war. It has been a close ally of the United States, and it is a country that has, uh, sought membership in the north [00:01:00] Atlantic treaty organization and various other Western institutions. Uh, we confront today as many of our listeners know, uh, the challenge of maintaining and continuing to pursue democracy in Ukraine.

Threatening countries, particularly Russia around it. Uh, we’re joined by, uh, a journalist who is covering these events on the ground in Ukraine. Uh, she’s one of the foremost, uh, Ukrainian journalists known, uh, to the United States and other communities. Uh, this is Natalia Gumby, a nuke, uh, she’s a Ukrainian author, documentary filmmaker and journalist.

Uh, she’s joined our podcast before. She specializes in conflict reporting human rights and foreign affairs. She’s the founder of the public interest journalism lab aimed at popularizing public journalism and overcoming polarization. And she’s been reporting on events, uh, from Ukraine for, uh, various news outlets, uh, national public radio, uh, and others.

And we’re, we’re fortunate to have her with us [00:02:00] today. Uh, Natalia, thank you for joining. 

Nataliya: Good to talk to you 

Jeremi: before we turn to our discussion with Natalia, we have, of course, uh, Zachary’s scene setting poem, Zachary. What’s the title of your poem podcast. When the war starts, let’s 

Zachary: hear it. When the war starts, maybe you are standing in a cupboard.

Maybe you are walking in the square under the lindens trying to make sense of the silence nowadays. It has become disturbing conspiracy. It is sunny, of course, as it always is. And almost it is any other day. Maybe you are standing in a cupboard reaching for a jar of pickles. Maybe you are standing on a street corner, looking up at a lamppost.

Maybe you are holding her hand and staring into her eyes longingly as the train pulls away. And it follows its own gaze into the mountain side, the train whistles as it always does. And maybe it reminds you of a province. You don’t wish to be caught [00:03:00] repeating such drawl in decencies now, not on a day like this.

Maybe when you at last year sirens, wailing and the Boulevard or bombs flying in between the rafters of the apartment block across the square. It is dark already. Maybe when you will have understood what it means to be hungry. When you will have wandered silent ruined streets. Following breadcrumbs, Nate has already fought.

Maybe it is dark already, but more likely it is bright, simply bright, and you must stare at the fires across the way and breathe in the smoke of a human being. You look out over the square, into the eyes of your neighbor, as she collapses at two, four time into non-existence. When the war starts, maybe you are reaching for the catch-up in the walk-in pantry.

Maybe you are kicking stones along the avenue in the mid morning sun. Maybe you are looking up or looking down or looking backwards over your shoulder, into the eyes of the man. You must [00:04:00] kill who must kill you 16 months. Forget that you were here. When, if you tell your grandchildren, you already knew that it had started.

Yes. You were waiting at the window. Yes. You looked her in the eye. Yes. You knew already that there was simply nothing to be done. 

Jeremi: It’s very moving. Zachary. What is your poem about? My 

Zachary: poem was really about the ways in which when we least expect it. Uh, we can be thrust into war. Islands. And it’s really about, uh, trying to, uh, remain vigilant against that, but also how deeply devastating work can be and how vital it is that we do everything we can to prevent 

Jeremi: it important to remember that point, uh, Natalia, this, the events in Ukraine the last, uh, few months and the events around Ukraine seem almost like a slow inevitable.

Descent into war. Is, is that what it feels like on the [00:05:00] ground there? 

Nataliya: I would say it doesn’t feel really like that. I think there are a couple of clarification to be made. It’s true. That Ukraine is at war with Russia for the most years. And Russia is in control or. Part of the Ukrainian territory in Crimea and in the Eastern part of the country.

However well, what we have today, it’s not really the crisis in Ukraine. Honestly, it’s saying there is nothing happening in Ukraine for the last couple of months. That part from, you know, like exile, which we have, or the preparation of the military or people to be on the alert, what are they experienced today?

Um, is the threat of. To Ukraine. However, the problem is at this moment, uh, between more or less Russia and the west, uh, because the demand of, uh, Kremlin today, they don’t really want anything from [00:06:00] Ukraine, from what they, uh, say. Uh, it’s not really about, uh, even like Ukraine as a country. It’s about the spheres of influence.

It’s more or less about the returning to the, uh, history, uh, like. Before the Soviet union had collapsed and that’s makes this situation quite weird because I fall I’m following the con I’m covering a lot of international conflicts. I’m covering the conflict in Ukraine. So I do quite well. What is the war on the ground?

Like the very classical, what people imagine, um, in how they see it in the news or in the movies. Uh, but now we really have the. It, the story is about Ukraine. The threat is to Ukraine, but it’s done in this direction because that’s what Russia can. Since Ukraine is not a native member and there is no any Alliance.

There is no any obligation of any country to [00:07:00] support Ukraine in possible battle with Russia, which is of course, an international, uh, military, uh, global superpower, um, it’s Ukraine, which will unfortunately ma might slide into the war. If there won’t be success in this negotiations, but the problem is it’s very hard to find what the successful.

Jeremi: Th that’s so insightful. And it’s, it’s important for our listeners to understand that as you say, the, the primary demands from a lot of Amir Putin, the president of Russia have been demands upon the United States and NATO demands to make a pledge, never to allow Ukraine into NATO and various other demands he’s made there generally are not demands on Ukraine at this moment.

What does that feel like for citizens of Ukraine to, in a sense, be paused. And this chess board, as you put it of great power conflict over spheres of influence, a very historical phenomenon. Of course, Ukraine has been in this position [00:08:00] before. So do you cranium citizens recognize that? And do they see this as part of that long history or something new 

Nataliya: it’s totally up you because, uh, I’m, you know, from these school of thought, if journalists who think.

People matters. The human security is paramount. And in a lot of situation of conflict, there is always the room of maneuver. There is always something which depends on arts. You know, maybe you can disclaim or, you know, there would be some political solution, but this is a quite, um, often. It was the case.

We are in a long process of the conflict resolution is Russia for eight years. And, uh, interestingly enough, also worth it to mention that the couple of a couple of years that the Ukrainian government was really pushing the policy, uh, towards deescalation, towards, you know, different kinds of the political solutions and negotiations.

So, uh, I was always [00:09:00] insisting that there is a lot Ukraine can do yet. Unfortunately not in this stage. And yes, people do feel about that. Uh, it partially makes people a bit palette paralyzed about the actions, because it’s not very much you can do in this situation. Of course, there are obvious things, which I still think, probably say that Ukrainian diplomats are there.

They are talking to the government. They’re looking into different. How the Western Alliance can help you create whether there would be a military support weaponry, or, you know, financial support or just unity or enforcing the sanctions to AdWords. Uh, there is of course, uh, the clear things which the Ukrainian army should do in OB on alert, be prepared to look at different scenarios.

But there is quite a few things. What really Ukrainians can do, you know, like there is no wheel of this war, neither in the largest society nor [00:10:00] among the political class. So the reasonable need, for instance, for the journalist to write somewhere, like stop the war. Nobody wants the war here. Uh, there is, uh, But at the same time, I won’t be really, let’s say using this term of being a poem on the global Chaz boat, because in then we should admit that some countries are biggest.

Some countries are more smaller, some. Uh, capable to defend itself and is partially capable to defend itself. And that’s what you create is probably will do in case of the invasion. However, is the disproportional a threat because it’s true that some countries. That big that’s, that’s why therefore the international Alliance and being now in position when you, crane is not the part of NATO, uh, it’s very hard.

What Ukraine really can do. So it doesn’t feel [00:11:00] like, you know, all the best betrayed Ukraine, but there is a paradox of the situation that Ukraine could be protecting. If it is a part of any international Alliance, but that’s exactly, which makes the fact that it’s not there gives the Russia the opportunity to do that.

It capability, uh, to risk, but at the same time, um, of course we understand that, uh, there is no easy logical, um, logical way out because the, the, the, the demands of Moscow are just against international security international order, uh, the idea of the FreeWheel of the people. So for instance, how Ukraine can influence the idea of.

Uh, on how the Nadir should avail Russia demand that, uh, you know, the, the voice of the people don’t matter, but this is such an [00:12:00] absurd demand that you really feel a bit paralyzed. 

Jeremi: Right, right. It makes a lot of sense. Uh, it, it would be unprecedented for an Alliance like NATO to give Russia a veto over who joins the Alliance.

Uh, then the Alliance might decide one way or another on whether a country like Ukraine or Georgia should be in the Alliance, but certainly to give Russia veto, uh, what would undermine the ally? The very existence of the Alliance. The other paradox of course, is. Putin’s uh, aggressive behavior and his threats, uh, make it all the more important to obviously for Ukrainians to have NATO’s support.

How do you think Ukrainians would react to continued Russian aggression and a Russian invasion? A lot of them are Putin claims that there is support for him in Ukraine. Is that. Um, 

Nataliya: case, um, I think that the best phrase to really describe the situation on the ground is really these keep calm and carry on.

[00:13:00] Uh it’s uh, psychologically, but for instance, you know, you mentioned, you know, you just leave your life and nothing really happening, but there are these all threats and demands, you know, everywhere, but the force, it’s not just stress. The recent thing. Tell the Russian troops on the Ukrainian border. It’s the fact that the confirm was a satellite to the intelligence.

Uh, so we bought a blast, uh, but the real threat at the same time, because it’s. Let’s say out, I bet to use the sword theoretical. There was very little you can do. So people just Preuss you and you know, they , but the only way is like just to go off. Um, but at the same time, uh, of course, as a journalist, we follow up with our, we follow up with food tissues.

We know that. You know, they don’t on holidays. They have an alert, they are looking at different options. At the same time. The moral is quite high. There [00:14:00] is looped out the two gradients, which resist the force of all the whole country. Uh, you know, people who do what is expected from them to do. So, you know, I would say like, even in case Russia, um, uh, evade, uh, to the different parts of the Ukrainian territory, It’s very hard to imagine how they would control the territory for what they need this territory.

Nope. They can’t afford just to create incredible damage to the country, to the economy of the country, to the infrastructure. They are capable of that, but really to innovate and expect that. Uh, you know, what people would support. That’s totally unrealistic. Um, so in then I, I use also this disturb off like doomed optimism.

We have that. It could be very difficult and challenging, but there is no like, even little doubt that the [00:15:00] Ukraine, the unsold fight to defend itself or that, you know, people who embrace any kind of invasion, a paradoxical legal force, you know, growing subpool us wards, uh, Ukrainian and memberships in Nao.

The live nation towards, uh, Russia in, yeah. Even if the people who were, uh, you know, I’m just saying that to again, say that still people quiet our village to, to, to the conflict happened. There are no drums of war in Kia or elsewhere. 

Zachary: What has been the reaction of the Ukrainian government? And has it been viewed positively on the ground?

Um, 

Nataliya: it’s different, uh, direction to the government. Um, at this point I think I would can’t afford to express my opinion. I should get a credit for the government, uh, to stay, let’s say call and show restraint, [00:16:00] which is very hard, I guess, you know, in the dissertation like that. Even if we, the political motives, it would be very easy to, you know, tune in this word.

It just like that. However, uh, the president and the government, they really want to avoid the panic. Uh, oddly enough, I mean, for good or for the best, but to my opinion, it’s for better. They are not really, you know, like this, they’re trying to. You know, explain to demonstrate this calmness in response to, to reassure that the government is in control.

Uh, but, uh, they really, no, not really rushing. I know for sure that the major effort is to, you know, uh, Get the possible support, uh, from the vessel Alliance. But I would explain also the, the thing that from the way, how the [00:17:00] Kremlin usually act, they really try to provoke. They really tried to create this cousin’s belly for war, you know, do something.

And then, um, accused another side of, uh, being the ones who started, uh, and already in this situation, there were quite a few situation when, uh, Ukraine could be. You know, hotheaded aside, which started something and that’s already explanation in the, uh, Russian propagandistic or the Russian state media. Uh, but it’s not exact, it’s the opposite towards going on, on the ground.

So the population is different. I know. Some of the, uh, people are like complaining, like, oh, why? I don’t know, like we are that calm, why the result anywhere like emergency mode. But I think it’s also done in order to deescalate because it’d be very difficult to understand them, you know? Like what is it for us to be [00:18:00] clear?

What is the co-sponsor. It’s quite important, not to, you know, bring that chaos. Uh, so we do have more or less a calm, a situation in the, let’s say creating media rather than even in the international media, um, regarding the conflict, uh,

Jeremi: And it’s important for people to understand that Russia is, has claimed that Ukraine is acting in aggressively toward it. And so, uh, as Natalia described, uh, there’s a concern that Russia will use. What use an excuse use, what appears to be. An act of Ukraine or another country to justify invading, uh, what do you create Asians think about Western and American policy in response to, uh, Putin?

What, what would they like to see? 

Nataliya: I think that the, the, the idea is that it’s too late. So indeed, uh, [00:19:00] Ukrainian army is, uh, The reform process for the last year since developed very well, but still it’s, um, you know, far away from perfect, uh, the right years necessary in order to improve the situation and as well, uh, I mean, if the, the troops are quite strong, uh, but.

The Navy or air defense is quite weak and that’s not something to fix. So there is quite a clear list of, uh, equipment, military equipment, which is demanded from drones to different kinds of defense system. But I should insist that, uh, it’s about the defense. Uh, I, myself, I mean, I’m a generalist, so I’m not really like expressing strong opinions.

Uh, but I’m the one who is not really, it was not really a big supporter of. Sorting out the annexation of Crimea or, [00:20:00] uh, recon coming down bus with the military force. So I was quite, quite, uh, had quite a strong opinion on that, that we won’t solve the conflict in the Eastern Ukraine was more weapon because it’s not there yet.

Now the situation is different with speaking about the threat of the different scale of the invasion from foreign country, where probably some. Some kind of very, uh, clear types of veterinary could be, um, it could be used also, but the same time as we just discussed this paradox of NATO, uh, this idea that Ukrainian, um, that, that.

Can it be decided with the participation of Ukraine? I think it’s, it’s facially frustrate some of the people, but why I’m speaking too late, because of course any support right now could be used, uh, could be accused by Russia as kind of a provocation. So. [00:21:00] It could be given weight earlier. The second problem is, uh, I don’t want to make it too complicated, but we’re speaking about the north stream to the gas pipeline, which is a build to sell the gas, uh, in Germany.

And of course in this situation for Ukrainians, it’s quite difficult to understand how at all we can build something like that in current context, because there are a lot of announcements that, oh, it would be blocked if it would be used at the bathroom, but it’s already used as weapon. So some of the Ukrainians, or probably would like to.

Strongest support because the weakness is something which in fact provokes the Kremlin, um, the, especially the, usually the Kremlin describes, um, in their publications. Uh, You know, the west won’t support your crate. So as [00:22:00] long as when the west demonstrate even a lack of unity or lack of strengths, that’s something which kind of makes Russia stronger.

Uh, so there is this, uh, feeling that it could be more, uh, in the end, as we started the program, as we started the podcast. The story at this moment, isn’t really about Ukraine, but in the end, in the worst case scenario, that would be Ukrainians who would need to find, and who would be under the, uh, critical.

Jeremi: Right. So our final question, Natalia, uh, relates to a number of things you said in your, uh, really interesting answer. Uh, just now, uh, Ukraine has been dealing of course, with, uh, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and Crimea in particular since, uh, 2014 and continued support for an insurgency and the Dawn boss that you mentioned before, the Eastern part of Ukraine.

So in a sense, [00:23:00] Ukraine has been at war with Russia, low scale. Since 2014, what does that long experience of conflict with? Uh, and the current concerns about war. What does that do to Ukrainian democracy? A, yours is a country that is, uh, developing, uh, democratic institutions. It’s been difficult. You’ve written about this.

Uh, we have our own difficulties in the United States. Of course. Uh, what, what do these events mean for the future of Ukrainian democracy? 

Nataliya: So. There is one demand. Russia wants from Ukraine in this case, not to be a democracy and that’s not what you create in wants to agree. That’s what is really on the table, uh, you know, uh, regaining its sphere of influence for Russia means that neither Ukraine, no other is a post-Soviet or even, you know, uh, Eastern European countries, uh, won’t be democracies any longer if Russia, [00:24:00] uh, you know, So that is what is, uh, on the table.

That’s what is at heart of this conflict? Uh, I still wouldn’t seize that any war is of course, uh, is toxic for the societies and for the democracy in the society. It creates the pre-tax, uh, you know, for, um, different, uh, Government policies or to booze in the society. So it can’t, you know, the work can’t be helpful to the society or do the country.

Uh, but I. Still do not see any other way, um, that, uh, Ukraine who, you know, give up and would say like, okay, we agree. We, we, we don’t want it to be democracy, so please invade us. Or like, okay, we agree that we would like to have a third to Iran government. And then if, if it’s come down the Russia, we would do that.

We see that it sounds even Sealy when I pronounced. [00:25:00] So indeed in the long run, uh, the, um, it’s not just about democracy and Ukraine. It’s about the whole idea, whether the country, which decided to be democratic, uh, former post-Soviet country, whether it’s allowed by Russia to be a democratic. And that’s definitely not something we want to have in the 21st century.

Jeremi: Right. The basis for sovereignty and self-determination is for the people to decide, which is at the core of democracy. Zachary. Uh, this has been in the news, this topic, of course, but there’s a lot going on in the world today, uh, especially COVID and, uh, debates over voting rights in the United States, various various changes, uh, and various controversies.

Uh, do you think this is a topic? Young people are interested in, in the United States and something that will motivate young people like yourself going forward. I 

Zachary: think so to a [00:26:00] limited extent, because I think part of the problem is that the way this conflict is being discussed in the United States is one of great power conflict and, and almost on cold war terms.

And I think part of the problem is. In that language, that rhetoric we’re losing sight of the people who will actually suffer on the ground, uh, if, if an invasion were to occur. So I do think people are engaged in the sort of, um, high stakes, uh, diplomatic and public controversies that are ongoing at the moment.

But I think there’s less attention. And not enough attention being paid to the actual consequences 

Jeremi: on the ground, right. And the complexity of American and Western responses to this, to this well, Natalia, thank you for, uh, providing us an on the ground perspective and giving us insights, as Zachary said to the experience of human beings on the ground and reminding us how important, uh, how important this conflict and the future of Ukraine is to [00:27:00] the future of democracy.

Uh, Uh, and beyond there are not easy answers for us policy, but I think you’ve given us a much better accounting of how we should think about, uh, the situation and how we should carefully plan for, uh, future weeks and months of, of potential conflict, even, even warfare. Uh, thank you so much. Uh, thank you Zachary for your poem and your insights of course, as well.

And thank you most of all, to our listeners for joining us for yet. Another week of this is democracy.