Jeremi and Zachary sit down with David Judson to discuss the evolution of Turkey as well as the current controversies surrounding Turkey’s relationship with the United States.
Zachary sets the scene with his poem, “Images of Turkey.”
David Judson spent many years in Turkey. He first went there as a high school and later college student in the 1970s. He was to return in 2000, joining Turkey’s largest media group in 2003. First, he was managing editor of the Dogan Media Group’s Turkish language business daily, Referans. In 2006, he became editor in chief of Hurriyet Daily News, the group’s English language newspaper founded in 1961. In 2013 he left Turkey to return to the United States as editor in chief of Stratfor Geopolitical Forecasting, based in Austin. Judson left Stratfor in 2018 and now divides his time between the San Francisco-based forecasting firm Global Foresight where is a senior advisor and an Austin-based media start-up focused on the emerging role of cities as geopolitical actors. From the late 1980s to 2000, Judson was a political correspondent in Washington D.C., for Gannett Newspapers, America’s largest newspaper chain. He is a graduate of the University of California at Los Angeles.
Guests
- David JudsonSenior Advisor at Global Foresight
Hosts
- Jeremi SuriProfessor of History at the University of Texas at Austin
Narration 0:05
This is Democracy, a podcast that explores the interracial intergenerational and intersection of unheard voices living in the world’s most influential democracy.
Jeremi Suri 0:27
Welcome to our new episode of This is Democracy. Today we’re going to discuss Turkey, turkeys evolution, as a democracy as an American ally, and the current controversy surrounding Turkey’s relationship with the United States and the countries around it. We’re fortunate to have with us, one of the foremost experts on Turkey that I know and a good friend David Johnson. Welcome, David. Thank you. Good to be here. David. David has spent many years of his life
in Turkey he really has a sort of binational existence between the United States and Turkey. He went there as early as a high school later was a college student there and most interestingly spent much of his career as a newspaper reporter and editor. In Turkey. He was the managing managing editor of the doggone media groups, a Turkish language Business Daily called reference. And in 2006, he became the editor in chief of the famous Hurriya Daily News, which is, I think, the main English language newspaper in Turkey. He left turkey in 2013, moved to Austin, where he was editor in chief of strat for geopolitical forecasting and organization that became actually quite famous for its work on this particular region. And he also has been involved with global foresight in San Francisco, and is now founding in fact a new innovative media group called urban Aegis, which has a website that will soon be available actually in the next day or so.
For people to learn about many more of these issues so David, you’re a busy man. I’ll tell you
David Judson 2:05
culturally confused and busy. Yes, right.
Jeremi Suri 2:07
Well, we’re going to focus on Turkey today speaking of cultural confusion, and we’re going to begin Of course with a scene setting poem for Mr. Zachary Cirie. What is your poem titled today Zachary?
Zachary Suri 2:17
Images of Turkey
Jeremi Suri 2:19
images of Turkey. Okay, let’s hear it.
Zachary Suri 2:21
Turkey. You are eating donor kebabs and an Oxford side alley 10 years ago. You are the family friends from bus trips across the entire state of Wisconsin names that are hard to pronounce to our American tongues. You are some mythical interpretation of Hercules at the Dardanelles, Xerxes and his bridge. You are the last creations of the namesake of really pilgrims urban America. You are built upon the bones of myth upon the ruins of the walls of Poseidon. You are that time I stayed up late in the dark listening to the news of a military coup on a bridge from 5000 miles away. Turkey but if so many poultry jokes too many gobble gobble learning about your Siege of Cyprus and Travel anchor on the DVD, Turkey. My parents trucked across you in their half feet rental car for their honeymoon and my feet still float across the rug they bought in the morning. And now it is stained with hot chocolate and dust. The devil of Bosnia capitalist Viennese triumphant pastries, possessor of Palestine, Turkey Ottoman partake or in World War collapsed Empire dabbling in democracy NATO member taking in refugees from Syria and Baghdad he was just killed along your border. And it is kind of surreal that you were in between it all. Neither Europe or Asia not completely Middle Eastern, split or soul of hottie between continents loosely defined, split along soul of so many writers between freedom and tyranny, mixing and mixing like the way the wheels spin on Hercule Pyros train headed west from Istanbul, Turkey. There are images of green conflict zones on live maps of Syria into solution that traced back to you. And there are pictures of you languishing under a sweet full moon in a rooftop restaurant on my mother’s dresser.
Jeremi Suri 4:01
There’s a lot in that poem, Zachary.
David Judson 4:03
I think we can wrap right there. I think your story. I’m a big fan of your portrait, but you have won me over all the mortal.
Jeremi Suri 4:12
So what what, how does it all come together exactly what’s
Zachary Suri 4:15
Well, this poem was really about sort of the complexities of the issue at hand, and how turkey really straddles so many different continents, and so many periods of history going back even to Greek mythology, and before that period, and what it’s kind of what makes the conflicts in the Middle East and particularly in Turkey. So, so interesting, but also so complicated. Hmm.
Jeremi Suri 4:37
So so that’s a really great point to start on. David, how do we how do we think about Turkey’s evolution in the last century or so?
David Judson 4:45
Yeah, I mean, I think sec kind of got it there. I think the simplest way, clearest way to, to sort of start thinking properly about Turkey is to think about it as it throughout the 20th century as Kind of pivoting back and forth between the modernizing secular rising forces at the sort of center? Yes. And, you know, and a pious, more conservative hinterland at the periphery. So, you mean the original revolution, foundation of the of the republican 1923 was really the center, moving up towards that periphery to kind of orient to the west. And this is the republic that grew out of what had been the Ottoman Empire. Exactly. The 1950 the first true Martin multiparty election, Turkey pivots back towards it, again towards its hinterland and more conservative government really, almost a forerunner of today’s Justice and Development Party or a KP 19 61st military coup. turkeys snapped back the opposite direction. Democracy is restored 1960s politics Move again back towards those those conservative reflexes reemerge again, there’s a corrective the time of tutelage from the military. Going to get it right this time, right. That didn’t quite work. 1970s was a time of great right left, conflict 1980 another coup. Then we have, after the after that coup we have the rise of or that the emergence of the, who was a modernizing president in many, many ways Prime Minister and President, but he also kind of took turkey back to its to its to its more conservative, pious roots. The he dies his successors take over in 1996 is with the call of postmodern coup, the The partner in the government at the time Islamic party has to resign in retreat. The again, forces of secularism the centralizing forces to take over assert themselves 2002 we have the election of AKP and, and that’s how we get the current president. That’s how we get the current president. Exactly.
Jeremi Suri 7:24
And and as someone, David, who lived in both the United States and in Turkey, and in fact has worked as a journalist in both places, it’s quite unique actually, your background, what would you identify as some of the differences in lived democracy between us and Turkey? Because Turkey is in some ways a democracy, right?
David Judson 7:41
Yeah. It’s a very muscular democracy and it’s a
it’s a it’s a competitive, pluralistic place. The mean democracy, a lot more than election right? And the and the ability for various factions and forces to express themselves are many. I used to argue that you mean, even in in the 2000s when I was a journalist in Turkey, and Turkey had a lot of problems with the freedom of press that there were sanctions on journalism. But sanctions not the only way to measure freedom of the press. The in those days there were two Marxist dailies. There were three Islamised dailies. Well, competing with one another. There were half a dozen mainstream dailies there were two conservative nationalist dailies. It was a very, very vibrant ecosystem. There were three Kurdish language dailies at that time. Yeah. Wow. They now was everything. a walk in the park? No, it was not. But of course, you know, since particularly since the Cuse before but but particularly since the coup in 2016. That dynamism That diversity within the within the media has has has been all but rubbed out. And that’s part of the sort of retreat from democratic principles that kind of defined country.
Jeremi Suri 9:11
And in addition to the press, it does seem to me the role of the military is an important part of this story, too. And so paradoxically, in some ways, the military until recently was a protector of certain secular elements in society, right?
David Judson 9:23
Yeah, no, I think that that’s the, the, the military really saw its role as protecting Ataturk’s legacy, which was making Turkey by hook or by crook, a Western democracy. And so it was, but it was it was a democracy that was imposed rather than one that sort of organically grew up. And that’s been kind of the the problem. And that’s the kind of that this the central tension that I think, defines the modern era in Turkey, and we’re at just yesterday. Today was the 96th anniversary of the of the founding of the Republic. Right. Yeah,
Jeremi Suri 10:04
right. Interesting, right, just on the end of World War One, the creation of this new state. Should we see the retreat of the military as the result of Islamic forces? Primarily because that seems to be one of the big shifts since
David Judson 10:19
Yeah, I mean, so complicated, but basically the Reader’s Digest condensed version would be, I mean, the, the Islamist group that is alleged by the government to be behind the coup was originally when it came to power, you staunchest ally, the Gulen Movement. The movement really had had connections within the military. It had a lot of connections It was a and they were very instrumental in what is now regarded as as manufactured evidence for the show trials in the late 2000s. That really emasculated and defected the military there The sledge hammer and I came up to me the other one now, but but to two famous trials, that I mean, at one point, you know, a third of the officer corps was in prison. Wow, they. So the, you know, I mean, sure, did the did the military need to maybe take a step back or be restrained in some way? For sure. But the, the defending of it was,
was pretty deep and pretty profound.
Jeremi Suri 11:32
And how is President everyone been able to get away with this? I mean, because, as you point out, I mean, there’s a long history of the military, right, being a protector and and, and also there were traditions that had developed over the course traditions of the Free Press and other activities.
David Judson 11:46
Well, there’s a couple of things I would note, one, good fortune one, he had this allies in this group that that that had infiltrated the institutions and to some degree, the I think that one thing that probably changed was the complexion of the military changed that the Ataturk’s military the military was really large. The officer corps were largely the descendants of Balkan immigrants. The very very temperamentally oriented toward Europe. The as the economy improved, and the people of that demographic could aspire to become college professors or poets very appealing military. Right that they’d be able to military academy with you. And you started having more conservative recruits coming up through the system, so that the military itself became more conservative over time. And I think that’s a big part of it. Is
Jeremi Suri 12:52
it fair then to put air to one president, everyone in the category of populist?
David Judson 12:57
Yeah, I think he’s that’s a That’s a really good adjective. Okay. Yeah. And the, you know, his, particularly when he first came to power, the economic reforms, the health care reforms, the housing reforms. He was a very popular guy and the he’s now been in office, either as prime minister or president longer than any other leader of Turkey, including including Ataturk.
Jeremi Suri 13:28
Wow, I hadn’t realized that, Zachary.
Zachary Suri 13:31
Yeah. Um, how has Turkey’s role particularly as a important us ally during the Cold War, and largely it’s almost military relationship with United States. How has that influenced its its relationship with the United States and President Trump today?
David Judson 13:48
Well, the
interesting question how we how we get it to Trump but so the I mean, there’s a you know, there’s a long question. Kind of Band of Brothers kind of relationship between the two militaries going all the way back to the Korean War to Turkey, of course, sent a lot of troops to to the Korean War. There’s been lots of the everybody in the in the Turkish officer corps pretty much at one time or another has trained in the United States. So there’s there’s some deep bonds there.
Jeremi Suri 14:25
The Turkey was a member of NATO as
David Judson 14:26
a matter of Turkey is a member of NATO. Right. But the, you know, particularly I mean, since the coup that kind of fractured the military and a lot of ways. And since everyone has been kind of refocusing back towards the automatic hinterland where his where his heart is, in many ways, the turkeys become kind of a problematic member of NATO by at the anti missile defense system from Russia, the not agreeing to the terms to participate in the F 35 program the way the United States want it. And now, fast forward, we see, you know, the events of the last few weeks that have really kind of pulled the the I mean, you have the the, the militaries of the two countries going in different directions, the commander, I think the military really supports the decision to invade Syria. The US military certainly does not right. And and, you know, depending on what time of day and which day of the week, it’s hard to say, but I think at the moment, arrow on and Trump are kind of aligned, but I’m not sure if so how
Jeremi Suri 15:48
Then should we should we understand the recent events where the United States is pulled out of or largely pulled out of Syria, Syria, and the Turks have have moved in in a much more forceful, aggressive military And have taken more military action against the Kurds. How should we understand that? Is that really about Irwin and Trump? Or is it about a broader dynamic connected to these other issues?
David Judson 16:08
Sure. So the
so I mean, I mean, everyone. Well, me, let me back up a bit. I mean, the I mean, everybody knows that the United States one way or another, the United States wants to, to, to not get out of the Middle East certainly wants to lower its profile, right. Medically. I mean, it’s really been a 40 year war. Right, the and the, so the vacuum that’s emerging, will be filled by one of three powers, Saudi Arabia, Iran, or Turkey. Turkey wants that role. Everyone not too long ago, until the Arab Spring or even into the Arab Spring, was a very, very popular figure throughout the Middle East. That now has changed the is His relationship with Saudi Arabia is in tatters relationship with the Emirates and tatters. His one ally really is Egypt and also Qatar, or they have a military base now. But turkey wouldn’t in an expensive mood, I think it’s safe to say the, you know, the, the Kurdish issue is a complex one. The YPG is it’s called, you know, on that border that was the, the American ally Intel days ago, is an offshoot of the PKK, the terrorist organization in Turkey. That’s been a long term
Jeremi Suri 17:35
problem for Turkey. And just to clarify, the Kurds are an ethnic group that claim a right to nationhood of their own
David Judson 17:43
correct, right. The I mean, the, you know, of all the people that have been, you know, dealt a bad hand in the in the Middle East in the last century. The Kurds would be, you know, high on the list. Yes. They’ve the Now, you know, it’s it’s also important not to kind of reduce it to a binary sort of derivative of the US civil rights situation with you know, I mean, they mean Turkey is a is a very complex player more than 33 languages spoken in Turkey. They’re more more descendants of Bosnians living in Turkey than living in Boston and there are more descendants of Albanians living in Turkey than in Albania there. The the the laws are it’s a Muslim. Muslim group of Georgians, ethnic Jorgenson speak speak a distinct language and dialect. The cards themselves speak three mutually unintelligible dialects or languages. So, the and
so, I mean the the while there’s a
AV very discernible, heterogeneous Kurdish identity many ways there’s nothing analogous Turkish identity it’s a you know it’s a it’s a composite identity kind of like French identity after the French Revolution like well we’re all going to be French now and that probably was a minority of people speaking French it’s a multi lingual multi
Jeremi Suri 19:14
ethnic multi religious society sure
David Judson 19:16
it was the collapse star of Empire is Zach kind of pointed out at the beginning of the of the of the program here. So the but the just as the basket and the Catalonian have never really sought to be integrated very effectively into the Iberian or larger Iberian identities or French identities that the Kurds didn’t want to go along with program to become Turks along with fake the pOH marks and the laws and the and the Albanians, etc. The and it’s been a long struggle. The now through the they started getting Cultural Rights and then I didn’t notice I mean when I first went to Turkey, the Official line was that courage didn’t exist. They were mountain Turks and spoke a kind of a bastardized dialect of Turkish that because of their isolation was just nonsense in the early 1990s, and language rates were gradually given the, and then originally aired one so there’s really three periods. So, Magellan The, the leader of the PKK, was captured in the late 1990s, with the help of the say, and he in prison demanded a ceasefire which lasted till 2004. That fell apart in 2004. There was a time of conflict in assault. Horrible things happened and terrorist actions. The up until 2009. That’s when everyone began the so called Kurdish opening.
And Kurdish TV was begun Kurdish
education was allowed in universities. A lot of important things happened in Minnesota municipalities. The Eastern Region actually began producing became not bilingual but trilingual producing all the languages for the municipalities in both Turkish, Kurdish, and Syriac because there’s a Syriac minority in that in that region of
Jeremi Suri 21:14
and this is also the moment when the Kurds become a close American ally,
David Judson 21:18
right in Iraq and elsewhere rice. And in fact, the this is one thing that I think hasn’t been maybe effectively explored in the media in this in the in the context of the of the events of the last few weeks, is that until 2015
when the Kurdish opening was was going on.
Turkey was maintaining pretty good relationships with the Kurds in the Syrian side, right? A solid Muslim, the leader who’s now the spokesman, was frequently in ancora they were talk of opening a representative office for the group and and that was fine and 2015 when they had a general election, and the Kurdish The, the sort of the the shin Fein if you will, political Kurdish political party got 15% of the brain became a challenge to it became a challenge to Edwin and Andrew a lot of votes from non Kurds. Right. The leader who’s now in prison, two years, no charges. The Yeah, that’s another story. We don’t we can do that the next podcast but the but it was after 2015 that then they decided to rerun the election. And that’s when they the the Kurdish opening came to an end, the tensions flared. And in the end the nationalism that that rose up after the conflict resumed is really what helped the AKP to win those nationalist votes back that he’d lost because of the Kurdish conflict and, and kind of bolstered his majority. So is it fair is it fair to say that at least in part when President Eric one is doing is attacking the courage to build his popularity at home? Yeah, I think that’s, that’s absolutely. And he’s, and it’s and it’s very effective. The I think the I mean, the he’s in trouble, you know, the economy is in bad shape. Right. The he lost the Istanbul last four major municipalities in the last local elections.
Jeremi Suri 23:24
And why does this tactic work? I mean, everything you’ve said indicates, you know, Turks have a long tradition of actually working with Kurds and managing these issues. Why all of a sudden is this so popular?
David Judson 23:36
Well, I think that the, I mean, I mean, everybody’s tired. They’re tired of taking care of four and a half million Syrian refugees. They’re tired of the attacks. You know, by the by the PKK, the tensions that result from that, and this this move into Syria, is seen both as a way of clamping down on the PKK They, the PKK is regarded the Kurdish movement on both sides is really regarded as using from from their perspective. I mean, the story here, the narrative here is that they are America’s allies against ISIS. The Turkish narrative that’s been repeated over and over and over again, in a very heavily government controlled press, is that they’ve been using ISIS as a tool to camouflage their national aspiration. The Kurds have been secretly collaborating with ISIS. No, not that they’ve been secretly collaborating but that they use the threat of ISIS as a tool to leverage their way to the national aspirations maybe even statehood that say that they would like and, and of course, I mean, while I deep skepticism about how realistic it is to relocate four and a half million Syrians into Syrian Arabs into a previous Kurdish set of neighborhoods that didn’t come from there in the first place, right? that resonates very well. And I mean, imagine, I mean that if the United States have been taking care of 16 million refugees for five years with very little help from from other present, they’ve done a very good job the camps, I mean, particularly if you compare them to the way we’ve been treating some of the Mexican migrants and the separation of families, etc, etc, you know, you know, inadequate facilities and no toilet paper and no toothpaste, etc, etc. The The, the, the Turkish Red Crescent Society has done a just a remarkable job of taking care of refugees,
Jeremi Suri 25:43
and four and a half million refugees is a lot. It’s a lot of people. Yeah, so So David, as you know, we always like to close our discussion not simply unpacking the problem as you’ve done so brilliantly here, but also thinking about positive directions for how does this broader historical view that you’ve provided us open options If not necessarily overnight options, but long term options for thinking about US policy for thinking about regional policy?
David Judson 26:09
Well, I mean, I think that mean, one way or the other
turkey in the United States
have got to get along. The imperatives for both sides defined a modus vivendi are powerful. I mean, the the United States is not going to look to an alliance with Iran, as its new regional edge demonic partner, the Saudi Arabia looks like kind of a less than perfect option. Yes. So, so, so I mean, I so I think the the, the the long term forces are aligned in support of continued Alliance, but, but it’s it’s really going to be constrained and it’s really going to be difficult and And the you know, while I have some sympathy with the issue, the House of Representatives yesterday declaring the Armenian Genocide passing the Armenian Genocide resolution just pours gasoline on the fires of nationalism.
Jeremi Suri 27:18
See some would argue as our prior guest Samantha Power has argued that this is actually a step forward that acknowledging and holding Turkey to account for the the genocide of you know, perhaps a million and a half Armenians that that’s that’s a step forward you don’t see it that way?
David Judson 27:33
Well, I think that coming to terms with the history of the genocide will ultimately be a big step forward. Where I would disagree with Dr. Powers, I think is that is the history of the of the genocide is I mean, mean all genocides are not alike. And the, the way the resolution passed it basically you know, gifs period To the Armenian Genocide with the Holocaust, and the circumstances historical figures are very different. And the I think, probably the the most important book, I think, written on this as bike tonight, October who was himself a Turkish call, I think he’s, he’s he’s lectured here at, I think yes, yeah. And he’s a Turk, and he uses the word genocide. And he’s not very popular in Turkey because of that. And he’s very popular in Armenia because of that. But if I just had actually read the book, right, and the complicity of the French and the complicity of the Germans, there was a so so I mean, the ultimate reconciliation has to take in a lot more actors than just the Turks but what the way it the sort of crude way this comes down, did they do it? Did they not? Was it a genocide? Was it not? I think, sort of puts the whole historical burden on the shoulders of Turkey in a way that doesn’t take us Toward a deeper understanding of what happened, but rather kind of locks us into position and aggravates the nationalisms that, particularly at this time in history, could I mean, we’ve already seen atrocities in northern Syria. Sure. I’m sure the if not by the Turkish army itself, then certainly by the forces that they’ve that they’ve sponsored, and I just really wish the, this had not happened right at this particular point. And I would also make make mention that the Armenian Genocide business historically has not been supported in Armenia, right. It’s the Diaspora that wants it, Armenia would really like to, like, hold that in advance and get a relationship with Turkey going and build trade relations and the and all of that, so, so it’s, it’s tricky, and I think, you know, I respect But she said she had a really interesting piece today in the times. You know her I thought her her discussion of the millions $12 million a year during the Obama administration they spent on lobbying. That’s money that could have gone a lot more productive places. Right.
Jeremi Suri 30:12
Right. So so if I understand your position, David, you’re you’re saying that to go forward, what we should emphasize, or the continued values and interests that are served, despite our significant differences, on many issues, still interests that are served by a Turkish American relationship? Absolutely. And that building that relationship will open space to address more of these issues, such as the legacy of the genocide, such as human rights violations today.
David Judson 30:36
Absolutely. Yeah. That’s a good summary.
Jeremi Suri 30:38
Zachary, Does that does that sound like something that would interest young people who care about human rights and care about the region and are concerned about courage? What do you think?
Zachary Suri 30:45
Yes, definitely. I think, you know, I think my generation of Americans is very much focused on these issues, particularly the different conflicts in the Middle East and how they relate to Turkey. And I also think that the fact that there’s some Turkish, there’s so many Turkish immigrants in the United States and across the world plays a major role in how we view Turkey.
Jeremi Suri 31:06
That’s right. That’s right. I think one of the most profound points here is that the history of Turkish democracy is intimately connected to the history of American democracy and even more so as we move into this tumultuous period that we’re in now. And understanding that historical relationship can give us at least some motivation for building stronger relations even as we try to improve the behavior on both sides of that relationship. Yeah. Well said. Well, thank you, David. And thank you, Zachary, for joining us for this week and for our understanding of democracy in America and in Turkey. This is Democracy.
Narration 31:51
This podcast is produced by the liberal lights development studio and the College of Liberal Arts at the University of Texas at Austin. Music In this episode, was written and recorded by Harrison lumpy, and you can find his music at Harrison lemke.com. subscribe and stay tuned for a new episode every Thursday featuring new perspectives on democracy