January 26th, 2022 – Second Reading Podcasts

Welcome to the Second Reading Podcast from the university of Texas at Austin, the Republicans were in the democratic party because there was only one party Toronto on a regular basis. There is still a land of opportunity in America. It’s called the problem is these departures from the constitution. They have become the norm point. Must’ve female Senator raise her hand or her voice to be recognized. Okay. The male colleagues in the room.

And welcome back to the second reading podcast. I’m Jim Henson, director of the Texas politics project at the university of Texas at Austin. Very happy to be joined today by Gromer Jeffers junior, a long-time political writer for the Dallas morning news and a longtime friend of the work that we do here at the Texas politics project.

Gromer. Thanks for being. Hey man, is I I’m excited about this and you’re right. I’m a fan. I’m a fan of the work of, of what y’all do at the Texas, uh, politics. Well, that’s, that’s really kind. I was going to be concerned. I, I, you know, I wouldn’t even have gone as far as fan, so I really appreciate. That. So, you know, we invited groomer today in, in part, because I wanted to check in on, on your tape groomer on the state of the primary campaigns that are underway now in Texas, as we get closer to the March 1st primary elections, um, you know, I thought we’d start near the top of the ballot.

They’re not exact though, not literally at the top by talking about the attorney general contest and the Republican party, the incumbent Republican, Ken Paxton. Uh, election to a third term, he’s facing a crowded field, which early on, I drew a lot of interest in this race. But you know, as this shape, as this race has shaped up, there were a lot of people who expect this to be one of the most competitive primary races, this cycle that may still be true, but you had a really interesting column that got my attention and the attention of a lot of other folks.

You kind of flagged it for me. That suggested that this race has not taken off the way we expected. So let’s start. I’m curious. What in your reporting makes you think that, you know, this race isn’t shaping up as quite as competitive leisurely? Well, just first of all, if you talk to the activists, some of the local party leaders, uh, the folks on the ground, uh, they say they, they just, they just don’t feel not just an energy, but that the voters are engaged right now.

Um, and, and not just in that race, but, and in politics in general. And I don’t know if that’s because of election for T where we’re coming out at a holiday season, lingering effects of the pandemic, but you have that you have a general sort of, we’re worried about politics later attitude with a lot of, a lot of the voters.

And given that this race was supposed to be the marquee race, because you had a seemingly. Wounded and convent, uh, go on against, uh, Uh, a statewide office holder and you know, the air to the, uh, Bush dynasty and George P. Bush and a very credible, uh, former Supreme court justice who’s run statewide before and Eva Guzman and now Louie Gohmert or Congressman, uh, you just don’t feel that energy and that enthusiasm.

About that race yet. And you mentioned yet, and I, and I preface that it could heat up here and the last month or so, but certainly in the last few weeks, but certainly you don’t feel it yet. And my sense of it is you might have to wait till you get down to two people to get that really, to get the energy, to get to the excitement, the anticipation of what will happen that you have.

Normally for a race of this magnitude, but people are just not feeling it yet. At least that’s what I’m told from conversations with activist, party leaders and folks on the ground. Well, you know, you said, uh, you know, this race getting down to two people, I think it’s, you know, the question about this race and, and I think the, the lingering assumption of.

The field looking in the way that you described it, where you have a candidate with at least name recognition in George P. Bush. And you know, a very well-known at least, you know, an experienced statewide candidate. If somebody who’s run, you know, pretty far down on the statewide ballot, that is a Guzman.

I don’t want to sell her short. I mean, you know, she’s gotten a lot of votes statewide, uh, in, in past elections and yet. You know, this hasn’t really taken off yet. I mean, you, you did some interest, you got some interesting feedback in that piece about whether we should assume there’s going to be a runoff.

I mean, as you know, the assumption there, as you say, this race will heat up. When we get the two people, is that there’ll be a runoff when we pulled on that race. And again, I do the, the horse race polling kind of under semi under protests as far away as we did it in October. You know, we had Paxton, I think at 48 or 49%, right on the.

Um, you know, I think you had, if I remember correctly in the article, correct me, you had bill Miller, well-known consultant and, and general guru, I think in Austin saying that he thought there was a shot that this wouldn’t reach a runoff. What it sounds to me, like you kind of assume there will be a runoff and I assume it’s to strike too strong a word, but that that’s still the odds on bet.

I think so. Uh, just what you just laid out, uh, you know, George P. Bush, while the base of the conservative party, uh, maybe control by the, the hard, right. In a sense there’s still. Some, uh, Republicans out there that are supportive of George P. Bush. I don’t think it’ll be a wipe out. He’ll get some votes.

And you mentioned, uh, justice Guzman as well. She’s spending a lot of money. Ultimately she’ll get to the point where she’s running. A credible campaign is very hard. And that type of feel, uh, if your packs and with his legal problems, they’re still there. They’re still, there are some concerns about it. Uh, it may not be the majority of voters, but there are concerns, but I think that’s enough to probably push this into a runoff.

What, I’d be surprised if he, if he won outright, just mildly. I think there’s a possibility. I think bill Miller and then the, uh, Matthew Langston was the other concern. I, I caught it in that article. They both think there’s a possibility that he could win without a runoff. But I think just the mechanics of it, to me suggest that, um, you know, he’ll get in the forties pot, potentially what they’re sealed.

Right. And you, you mentioned him and then I left him out, but, and, you know, I mean, and I think the real, a real factor here is Louie Louie. Gohmert, you know, the, you know, it’s not easy to get to the right of Ken Paxton in terms of positioning in these races. I, you know, I mean, that’s funny to us, but it’s also, you know, I could make that argument pretty objectively, I think.

And we did see a movement, uh, you know, two people that, you know, you know, were sort of percolating in this race or, you know, Gohmert who, who ultimately got in. And then we saw Matt Kraus, you know, a very conservative state legislator. Make a faint toward this. And then once Gilbert got in, he got out, um, or, you know, that’s what it sort of looks like.

And the Louie Gohmert factor in loops pretty large here, because if, you know, if you look at our data, you know, patch them for all his troubles and, you know, I have a laundry list of, you know, the, the recent stories and the things that are pending on, uh, around the Ken Paxton presidency. Right. He’s got a pretty secure position among what we would think of as the likely Republican primary electorate, which is more attentive, much, you know, very conservative, um, and very loyal to Ken Paxton.

If there’s anybody that, you know, might shave some of the core of his support off, it probably is more likely to be from the right than from. The center, right. I think, right. I agree. And, and Louis galmer talks or speaks to the portion of the Republican party that you just described? The Paxson supporters.

Basically he can speak to those voters with credible. Uh, because you’re right. It’s hard to get to the right of can pack some, but it’s very, very hard to get to the right of Louie Gohmert. And so if he has a gripe with Paxton, uh, the, the most conservative voters of the party are probably more likely to listen to.

And even no Gomer, more so, uh, than Ava Guzman and especially George P. Bush. So if, if galmer can have confined the resources to amplify his, his name, to get more familiar with what most voters in Texas, especially voters outside of. And that extreme conservative base that he appeals to then yeah, he can be a factor because he can talk to those voters with credibility there listened to him, is it this?

They’ll be like, Hey, this is good. All Louie, they all he’s raising a concern or maybe. Really look at this. I think that w that could be the attitude there. Uh, if it’s coming from George P. Bush about, uh, Hey, if we have a passenger’s Paxton’s denomination, the Democrat will win. Well, you know, most conservative, ultra conservative, Republican.

Won’t really hear that message from, from a George P or, or even justice Guzman, but if Gohmert is delivering it there, that really okay, well, let’s consider it. So I guess that would be the concern that Paxson would have with the Gomer candidacy. But again, the question is. Can he, does he have the resources to make himself more?

Yeah, I mean, I, you know, this cuts to the heart of what’s really difficult about these primary campaigns. I mean, you’re only, you know, we’re talking in a, in a statewide race about probably not more than about. 1.6 million Republican voters. Right? So you’re not talking about having to sway a lot of people and, you know, and I think as we compare the two, one of the things that I think is interesting about this, if you really want to just reduce the heck out of it, is that.

Bush and Guzman have to make two points. You’d have to make two arguments. You know, one, you know, for a PR to a, to a Republican primary electro, the first argument is, you know, I am conservative enough and I think that’s particularly difficult for. For, for George P. Bush, given the Bush brand in this state.

Right. And then, you know, but, and then the second argument is, you know, the, the, the, the fact that, that Paxton is essentially damaged goods because of his, his problems, his, his ethical problems, and all, some of the other things hovering out there. You know, Louie Gohmert only has to make one of those arguments.

And I think, you know, it might be easy to underestimate, you know, we, we think about these primary, these, these statewide primary races in very conventional terms about having to get your name out and having to achieve statewide name recognition. This is a much more targeted audience and Louie Gohmert is already pretty well established among.

A big part of that primary audience. You may not be on the three network newscasts every night, but he is a regular fixture in conservative media. And that is, I suspect that they are banking on that being their secret weapon, that they don’t need as much money. And you raise a good point. He may not be on the, on the local networks on the local news or the networks, but he’s on Fox or whatever, conservative outlet.

You choose he’s even, uh, sat in and done national radio programs when, when these Hollis gone on vacation, uh, which don’t underestimate that. I mean, you know, sitting in for Hannity or whatever, you know, the holes he’s done that. And so his name could be more familiar with the most conservative voters than, than we.

And if that’s the case. Yeah. He doesn’t need as much money. He doesn’t really have to do a lot considering the smaller universal primary voters, uh, uh, you know, so, uh, we’ll, we’ll just have to see, I called him he’s the wild card. I totally agree with that. He is the wild card in a race and I didn’t give, and he, he wanted admit this, but I think if he’s concerned about anybody at the.

It’s not only Gohmert, but it’s getting into a one-on-one race with Goldberg. Cause if galmer can manage to make the runoff. Oh wow. What does that race look like? Yeah. It really fundamentally it changes the fundamentals. Exactly. Because it’s, he, you can run against George people if you’re, if you’re POCs in, right.

He’s not, you can see that campaign from a hundred miles away. Yeah. So, you know, let’s look at some of these other races in your region, since we’re, we’re lucky to have you here and, and really close to the ground in north Texas. Uh, you gotta call them this morning in the Dallas morning news on the house district one 14 race in the, in the state house of representatives.

And that’s the seat that’s been retired. That’s been vacated by the retiring John Turner, the Democrat, but a district that’s also been redressed. Um, tell us, tell us about that race because there’s interesting things going on there most recently, uh, the, the, the surprise entrance of a sort of tried and true older Democrat in an experienced politician, but kind of a surprise entrance by the 74 year old John Bryan.

Yes. Yes. And, um, for those who, who I remember when I, when I got to text. I one of my first races was the 2002 Senate race between Ron Kirk, the former Dallas mayor and John Cornyn. Uh, the, the, uh, at that time he was a, uh, attorney general, but of course, point and won that race. And the primary was a guy named against Cron.

Kirk was a guy named victim Morales and victim arou. Well, it is responsible for one of the great upsets in Texas political history. He drove a white pickup in 1996 around the state of Texas and B John Bryant, a former Congressman, uh, from Dallas and the, uh, democratic primary for Senate. Uh, that was my first sort of encounter with what the legend of Bryant.

But anyway, Brian. Before becoming a Congressman was a state rep and a distinguished state rep. And by most accounts did a good job. He’s now trying to make a comeback big four for a couple of reasons why he thinks that the legislature, the Texas legislature is. Bad knee of an experience, Democrat, a leader, someone who knows how to fight against Republicans frame arguments.

He he’s critical of how Democrats are handling their, this. Uh, and the legislature and he wants to come out of what a political retirement and make a difference. The interesting thing about that is that he’s running against four other folks under 40, and this comes at a time when Democrats, as you know, Jim, they’re trying to get fresher younger.

They’re trying to get more people involved in the process. They’re trying to identify morally. And so they have this diverse crop of, of, of candidates running, uh, all, you know, rising stars in, in their own rights. At least that’s how they are described. And the potential there is for Brian. The, the, the veteran, the, the, the political from another era from last and office in the nineties to sort of at least upset the development of finding new and fresh talent and, and sort of, kind of take it from somebody.

So we’ll see how it plays out, but there’s this always just debate Republicans too, but especially in the, in the democratic party and. Because they’ve been in the wilderness for so long is how do we get more people involved in the process? How do we freshen it up? How do we get younger leaders? And this goes against that.

If Brian disappeared, And so, uh, you know, give us a feel for what the reaction is like. I mean, you know, and people I’m curious how much democratic activists in the area and these candidates are being Frank about their response to this. Cause I can’t, I can’t help, but think that people found this a very unpleasant surprise and are not, especially happy are not especially open to the heart document that for the former Congressman Brian is.

Right. Exactly. Um, and, and some of the candidates and some of their supporters to pointed this out that in the early to middle seventies, Ryan was in his, his Twain’s when he became a member of the Texas legislature and that there they are trying to do what he did, which is, which is contribute to the political discourse as a young person, as, as a, as a person on the way.

And that they should be able to do that. So his argument while you understand it, I mean, he, he says that the times are, are, are, are, if there’s too much at stake for an inexperienced person to, to, to leave the district, you understand what he’s trying to say? But on the other hand, you know, he was in his twenties when he, he became a lawmaker and, um, And when he made a D a difference in the legislature.

So there’s that ultimately the voters are going to have to decide between the best candidates. I think the risk here is that with Bryant on one end and for others fighting it out, we’ll want to the other candidates get enough traction, uh, to sort of match Bryant. Someone will emerge and make the run.

And then we’ll see how to race changes then, but there are people upset that in an era where Democrats are trying to, not just younger, because I don’t think age should be an issue, but different voices, diverse voices, new approaches, things like that, uh, that you have someone who last held office in the nineties trying to come back and take it.

You know, one doesn’t have to be overly sensitive here. I mean, I think, I think the age, you know, the age thing here is, is a surrogate for all kinds of other things that are turning in the democratic party, both in the state and nationally. I mean, it’s, you know, the, the other four candidates are, as I recall, are a reasonably ethically diverse and they’re younger as well as being younger.

Exactly. You have, uh, someone who came to the country from. Uh, Columbia, they only woman in the race. There’s, there’s that there’s, a Democrat in the race. There’s, uh, you know, all sorts of folks with different backgrounds. Uh, and let me add this. So you also have a situation here in Dallas and the Dallas area where Eddie, Bernice Johnson, the, uh, long time Congressman from district 30, the only Congress.

Congressperson just for 30 has ever know a trailblazing Democrat. Uh, she’s she’s retiring after, after her term aunt. Well, she’s in her eighties, 84, 85, 86 years old, something like that. And there’s an excitement that, uh, there will be new leadership coming to that seat. So you see where this is going right there.

All over the country. If you look at at there were and have been Democrats of a certain age, really, really in Congress for a long time are starting to retire and leave the scene. Uh, uh, and so Democrats are excited about that, but there’s still a problem with a generational divide, particularly in urban areas where Democrats have held powerful.

Yeah. And I, you know, I, I don’t want to overly dwell on this race, but, you know, I, I think this race also, I mean, you know, John Turner had been, you know, allowing for his position seniority and that he was a Democrat, a successful, and I think, well, liked member. And I think his exit, you know, kind of put another reset on, on this point, you know, that part of the delegation in the state of.

It did. And John Turner’s accent probably came as a shock to a lot of folks because he’s only been around for a couple of times. And, uh, it was expected that he would, uh, kind of burrow into the house and, and develop some seniority and, and, and be a strong leader for sessions before. Uh, but that didn’t happen.

And we should mention, you know, I think is part of the another, I mean, this is such a fact, you know, there are so many interesting things going on in your region and other facet of, of Turner’s position was that, you know, he came from a political family. Did you ever tell him his father, Paul former Congressman yeah.

Wiped out during the redistricting process of a 2000. But yeah, and still a very well-known and well-respected figure in democratic politics, both in the region and in the state. And you know, it’s another facet, I think, of this kind of changing of the guard piece that’s going on, but also the difficulty that the democratic party faces structurally.

Uh, in the state, in managing this both by nature of their position in the state. And as you say, the, you know, the, the, the high amount of turnover that we’re seeing in a very, at a very difficult, historically difficult time for Democrats in the state. Lastly, I’m like, jump, let me just quickly say why you need, why you need emerging leaders because when election cycles come and go take this election cycle, if you take that off, Out of the, the formula, right?

You will find a Democrat struggle to find qualify electric candidates for statewide office. It was a struggle and battle kind of did them a favor, right? In agreeing to run, he’ll be able to raise some money and Mount a credible race. We’ll see how successful he is. But, but where are the other statewide democratic party contenders?

No offense to folks who are running and other races, but let’s face it. They need to develop a bench. They need to develop a starting line up. Well, when you have these opportunities present themselves that these folks can stop. And Ron for statewide office or run for major office. You know, you have common already in Dallas, Lizzie Fletcher, and Houston congressmen, uh, you know, uh, uh, ask Veronica Escobar and El Paso one day there there’ll be ready, but you really need to develop.

That’s one of the biggest problems, I think, uh, uh, and reasons why Democrats have been a race since 1994, when it comes, when, when the time comes to seal a statewide. Sometimes they don’t pull the trigger and get a goat one, 2018, remembering the nominee for governor little to no Dallas county sheriff loopy be Valdez that won’t cut it in the statewide.

Right. I mean, I, you know, I think one of the things that’s interesting about that point is that, you know, that’s a problem for the Democrats. You and I have been probably been talking about. Candidate recruitment since the first time we met a long time ago. And part of what I think we’re seeing right now is that that’s not only now a problem for the Democrats.

I would argue it’s a problem for politics in the state, in that we’ve gone from. The weakness of the Democrats in the state being a question about, you know, when is this going to happen? What are the solutions, you know, thinking about it as a problem for the Democrats to becoming a structural feature of our politics and that, you know, certainly in 2021, there was no evidence that any of the Republicans leading the.

Whether you agreed with their agenda or not that they were worried about the general election, that there was a, a check in the political system that was affecting their agenda and their planning in any consistent. Right. And so, you know, I think this has gone from being, not just a problem for the Democrats, but, uh, but a kind of system-wide problem as we wind down here, grimmer, what else should we be watching in Dallas?

What else is going on in north Texas? Anything else you’re really paying attention to and think is maybe even kind of a sleeper as you know, the, the, the season really begins. Sure. Um, couple of things, one, uh, I mentioned the, the, the district 30 race to replace Eddie, Bernice Johnson. She’s endorsed Jasmine Crockett.

We’ll see what happens with that. The other, the other big congressional race, is it Collin county district three, they have, Taylor is giving a challenge from former Collin county judge. Keith’s. He’s not, that’s a legitimate candidate there and it’s all about Trump and Taylor’s float for a January six commission that failed in the Senate.

Taylor is the favorite to win, but that’s one to watch. You never know what could happen. When you involve Trump and politics, and then, uh, legislatively house district 70 and Collin county, uh, could be a situation where that could become a democratic seat. The first in Collin county and a very, very, very long time.

Uh, and also, uh, uh, we mentioned one 14, but. Uh, the Jeff, uh, case and see that he has holes in Tarrant county that could go to a Democrat as well. And we have a lot of other state house races out there, uh, to, to pay attention to. So, uh, it’ll be interesting in the primary season will let us know how things of course shaped for the general election.

But I think north. And north Texas will play a big role, uh, and, and not just local politics, but statewide politics as well, because, uh, again, if a statewide candidate in a general election can win in areas like Terrant county, for instance, uh, that gives them a chance of making a race at least really close better, or worked at that in 2018.

And Joe by one Terrant county, uh, in 2020. So we’ll see how it all shakes out, but I’m looking forward once we get past the primary season to an exciting election year groomer. Thanks for all that. Very helpful. Hopefully, you know, I mean, there is, as you’ve mentioned, a bunch of those house races, uh, there’s a few, there’s a lot of interesting things going on there.

We’re out of time. Uh, maybe if I can get you back right before the primary again, we’ll come back and track count some of those run folding. So thanks a lot for being. Man it’s long overdue, uh, call me anytime. I love talking politics with you as you know, and next time I’m in Austin, which will be pretty soon.

We’ll we’ll have a beer, uh, uh, socially distance bureaus. I am looking forward to that. Thanks groomer, grubber Jefferson, the Dallas morning news. Thanks again to groomer. Thanks to our staff here. Doing a great job in the, uh, liberal arts development studio and the college of liberal arts at the university of Texas at Austin.

Thanks to you for listening and we’ll be back next week with another second reading podcast. All right, thanks. A lot. Second reading podcast is a production of the Texas politics project at the university of Texas at Austin.