January 18, 2024 – A Post-Iowa Look at Donald Trump and the Texas GOP

[00:00:00] Intro: Welcome to the Second Reading podcast from the University of Texas at Austin.

[00:00:05] Intro: The Republicans were in the Democratic Party because

[00:00:10] Intro: there was only one party. Sir, I tell people

[00:00:12] Intro: on a regular basis, there is still a land of opportunity

[00:00:15] Intro: in America. It’s called Texas. The problem is these departures from the Constitution, they have become the norm.

[00:00:24] Intro: At what point must a female senator raise her hand or her voice to be recognized over the male colleagues in the room?

[00:00:34] Jim: And welcome back to the Second Reading podcast. I’m Jim Henson director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin Joined again today by Josh Blank, Research Director for the Texas Politics Project. Top of the morning, Josh. Top of the morning to you. So we are, uh, we are not in the studio today.

[00:00:53] Jim: We’re recording remotely just to to be COVID safe, we’re both healthy, but one of us, me, was Exposed to COVID over the weekend. So we’re trying to keep it reasonable here. Um, uh, you know, we spend most of the time in particular, you know, in a very relatively narrow sense, I think in the last few sessions, looking closely at the internals of Texas politics, if you will.

[00:01:18] Jim: Um, you know, and look, there’s a lot going on this week that we could call attention to, and a lot of this has happened, you know. Fairly recently, uh, campaign finance reports are out, uh, for Texas race’s department of justice report on Uvalde is being, uh, released. I believe as we are recording this on, on Thursday at 11, um, that, you know, highly critical, not surprisingly of the response, uh, Colin Allred’s congressional vote for a resolution condemning the Biden administration’s handling of the border, ongoing border negotiations in Congress.

[00:01:56] Jim: You know, there’s plenty going on and, and, you know, I’ve left a few things out probably, uh, stateside, but, you know, well, I think some of these things are going to come up. I, I thought we should do today is in the wake of Iowa and just given the timing of where we are in the political calendar. Um, I want to go with one of the big external factors that, you know, are in play in Texas elections, you know, mixture of the direct and the indirect, maybe that one pack.

[00:02:24] Jim: Um, And that is, you know, the, the presence of Donald Trump in Texas. Now, before we get underway with that, I do want to point out a post that, uh, a couple of, uh, a couple of pieces actually that we’ve posted at the Texas Politics Project website that rounds up data from the six polls that we conducted in 2023, the most recently, the most recently posted piece looks at data in nine or so areas that provide.

[00:02:52] Jim: Context for the 2024 election and the Trump discussion we’re kind of set up to have today as part of that. Um, And then we have a another piece that drills down much further on kind of the interplay between Uh texans judgments of what the legislature undertook In 2023 and they undertook it all year.

[00:03:17] Jim: Um, and uh, their expectations of, of how well the, the legislature did, how that kind of plays into primary politics, state politics, et cetera. Both of those pieces, if you go to texaspolitics. utexas. edu, you can follow the, uh, the blog link and there’ll be, you know, near the top of that list, depending on when you go.

[00:03:40] Jim: So with that set up today. You know, with the election clearly underway, you know, we did think that it was a good time to take stock of one of the big external factors shaping the election, Donald Trump and the election in Texas, and Trump’s presence in the Texas political universe. Now, you know, as you’ve gone back and forth talking about this a little bit pre production and chatting back and forth and looking at what we had, I mean, I think, you know, like almost anything to do with Donald Trump, unpacking this involves looking at things that are, you know, very, you know, kind of simple and maybe obvious and, and complex and things that are, that are a little more complex and maybe not so obvious.

[00:04:27] Jim: So, you know, on the heels of Trump’s big win in Iowa, which, you know, despite all the coverage leading in a whole topic unto itself, you know, uh, I don’t think anybody was particularly surprised by that outcome. Um, you know, certainly I, you know, I don’t think you were Josh and, and, you know, not that Iowa and Texas are the, are the same, but, you know, I, I think we can start by looking at the early presidential primary trial ballot numbers in our December poll, which look not unlike the Georgia, the, the, the, the Iowa outcome, not unlike what we’re seeing nationally.

[00:05:08] Jim: The only thing really that looks. Particularly different is New Hampshire the New Hampshire polling and we can talk about that And I would still argue that New Hampshire polling is is different in degree, but you know, we’ll see how that shakes out I mean, I think that’s all about right. I mean, I don’t think there’s anything too controversial in

[00:05:25] Josh: that Yeah, I mean the New Hampshire issue just has to do with the curious nature of their primary process and you know The added difficulty of, of gaming out what the primary electorate there is actually going to look like in particular, how, you know, what share of that electorate is actually gonna be made up of non Republicans.

[00:05:40] Josh: And I think if you go look at the polling. Among Republicans there, you’re going to see pretty similar numbers there to what you saw in Iowa and what you’re seeing nationally and what you’re seeing in the Texas poll. So what we saw, you know, going back to our December poll conducted at the end of last year, was we saw 65 percent of, you know, potential Republican primary voters say that they would be supporting Trump in the 2024 Texas primary election, similar to what we’re seeing both in polling and in reality.

[00:06:06] Josh: His nearest opponent opponent, which at the time of our polling was Florida Governor Ron DeSantis. He received the support of only 12 percent of voters in that December survey. I think some more recent polling that may have come out even today shows Trump with similar levels of support, although it looks like Haley and And DeSantis flip in that polling, but they’re still sitting at about, I think 11 percent there and Trump’s at about 69.

[00:06:27] Josh: So again, all within the same ballpark here. Um, you know, I think what’s notable, you know, I mean, about that in some ways, and this is how we sort of talk about this when we say it’s notable and it’s not, you know, sometimes we joke, you know, if 90 percent of people think something, then there’s no group that where it’s like, well, they only 20 percent think of

[00:06:41] Jim: this.

[00:06:42] Jim: Yeah. And when you’re in the high sixties, that’s pretty, still pretty close. Yeah. The high sixties. Yeah. Right. Math

[00:06:48] Josh: kind of works that way. So, you know, with that strong showing overall. You know, Trump is dominating most of the groups that we think are going to make up the primary electorate in Texas. 80 percent of those who identify as strong Republicans say they’re going to support Trump.

[00:07:02] Josh: 69 percent who identify as conservative. Amongst those who identify as extremely conservative, it goes up to 76%. Uh, you know, another sort of core group in the GOP constituency, especially here, are sort of biblical literalists. Uh, you know, some very religious voters, 71 percent of those say that they’re going to be supporting Trump.

[00:07:20] Josh: Um, but even when we look at sort of the groups that we think of as maybe being Potential sources of exposure for Trump or, or weaknesses in the coalition, even here, he’s still running, you know, fairly, if not very strong, right? So fixed 56 percent of moderates, which, you know, there’s not a huge share of the GOP coalition, but still a majority of the moderates in the GOP coalition.

[00:07:39] Josh: Say that they are going to be supporting Trump.

[00:07:42] Jim: But we should say that the, you know, the, the, the universe here was we asked people what primary election, you know, if they were going to vote in the Republican

[00:07:49] Josh: primary. Right. So this is at all moderates, but the idea is if you’re a moderate who, who plans to participate in the Republican primary, you know, odds are that you’re not going there to take Trump out.

[00:07:58] Josh: Actually, odds are just barely that you’re there to support him. Uh, when we look at the less strongly attached Republicans, those who initially identify as, as independents, and then, but then when push say, well, I, yeah, I’m a Republican who will be voting the primary again, half say they’ll be voting for Trump.

[00:08:15] Josh: You know, even we look at kind of the groups we think of as maybe up for grabs, 63 percent of suburban Republican primary voters say that they’re going to be supporting Trump. Yeah.

[00:08:22] Jim: I think, you know, as we were digging up some of the notes for this. You know, I think that’s a number to come back to yeah, you know That’s one to put in the pocket in terms of talking about, you know, the battle in the suburbs now Look, you know if you’re a Democrat you could say yeah.

[00:08:36] Jim: Well, it’s not like a rural area where it’s you know, whatever 85 or 90 But it’s but it’s that’s a big number

[00:08:44] Josh: But it speaks to what you know Like it’s something you kind of put a pin in up a little bit above which is you know The press is coverage of this You know, and look, I don’t know if it’s fair or unfair and I’m not, you know, I’m not crapping on the press on this one.

[00:08:56] Josh: It kind of is what it is. You have to cover Iowa. It is, it is what it is. It’s a news event regardless of whether the outcome is, is pretty predictable or not. You know, it’s, it’s notable that this was probably the least interesting Iowa, at least in my lifetime in terms of just, you know, like actually kind of.

[00:09:12] Josh: Looking at it and sort of thinking about the results, even over the trajectory of how people interpret Iowa results as being either super important or not important at all, or anywhere in between.

[00:09:21] Jim: Yeah, for, for comparison, you know, Ted, Ted Cruz narrowly won last time.

[00:09:25] Josh: Yeah, President Cruz. Oh, right now. So that’s the thing.

[00:09:30] Josh: I mean, it is what it is, but nonetheless. I should, I

[00:09:32] Jim: should correct myself. Not last time. In 2016.

[00:09:35] Josh: Right, in 2016. Um, and so, well, the last time there was a competitive. Right. Iowa caucus for Republicans. Yeah, I was right ish. You’re right it right enough, you know post post truth world We live in but the idea is the same thing is that I think there’s this, you know There is a tendency to say okay.

[00:09:52] Josh: Well, you know You want to make more out of this. You say, well, yeah, hey, you know, so Trump’s strong, but like maybe he’s not so strong with these people or who is Haley strong, strong with or who, who is DeSantis strong with? And you start to try to look in these numbers for potential sources of weakness, you know, whether out of desire, curiosity, whatever.

[00:10:12] Josh: And the point is, is that like, if you’ve been doing this, you would say, boy, it doesn’t really exist. And I mean, and I think, you know, part of the polling, you know, that kind of, I think elucidates some of this is that none of this should be really surprising given sort of the longer term trajectory of views of Trump, you know, both nationally, but also in Texas.

[00:10:28] Josh: And we look among Texas Republicans in the most recent poll found 80%. Saying that they had a favorable view of Donald Trump, you know, this is, I would say, very much on the trend line, you know, for Trump post presidency. And so there’s no situation, we looked at this, you know, after January 6th, in the aftermath, throughout the legal drama and the trouble, which they are very aware of, people are hearing a lot about.

[00:10:51] Josh: Views of Trump have not shifted within the Republican electorate. And so really in some ways, you know, he’s underperforming his favorability a little bit, which actually shows, you know, he has room to grow. It’s not as though, you know, it’s not as though the 63 percent is necessarily a ceiling for him, nor does this mean that, you know, the other 38 percent of Republican, you know, primary voters aren’t going to show up for Trump come November because there’s overwhelmingly positive view views of him now, look, that doesn’t mean he doesn’t remain.

[00:11:18] Josh: You know, insanely divisive along party lines here as elsewhere. Um, but you know, overall sort of sitting there, you know, unfavorite with the Texas electorate overall, but with 80 percent of Republicans holding a favorable view of him pretty comfortable place to be.

[00:11:36] Jim: Yeah. And remember that, you know, in terms of the way this race is looking right now.

[00:11:41] Jim: If you flip that and look at Joe Biden’s favorabilities among Republicans, he’s 77 percent very unfavorable. Now, I think that, you know, I mean, look, in Texas, you know, that’s not, you know, that is what it is. I mean, I think it does raise the question, and this kind of jumps ahead a little bit, but, you know, Um, you know, about just how much minor bits of attrition in Trump’s numbers.

[00:12:15] Jim: Should that happen? And, and, you know, we’ve seen that in a couple of windows where, you know, I was looking at the trend in those favorability ratings, you know, the, where he was in December is about right. You know, as you say, implied is like right in the middle of where he’s been. It’s kind of, I’ll bet the average is pretty close to 80.

[00:12:32] Jim: Yeah. Cause I think he’s moved between about, you know, Low to mid seventies and low to mid eighties. Well, that’s the point. He’s never dropped out. I think his high point was, his high point was maybe 85 at some

[00:12:41] Josh: point. Yeah. And he’s never dropped below 71 or 72 or anything

[00:12:44] Jim: like that. Right. So, you know, he’s, you know, I, and I guess that, you know, that does, in terms of thinking about the national election, before we get to thinking about what it means internally in Texas, I in national, I mean, this question is out there, is that, you know, small bits of attrition could hurt him.

[00:13:04] Jim: Mm-Hmm. . In competitive states in the, you know, in the state, you know, the six or seven, maybe it’s eight real competitive states that people are swing states that people are looking at, um, but sorted out, you know, his, you know, the Trump Biden dynamic and negative partisanship and all these, you know, a lot of the usual suspects, you know, I mean, I, you know, and I, I think it’s a, it’s a, you know, as we were going back and forth in chat, I think it’s a super open question.

[00:13:36] Jim: Um, It’s hard to imagine that

[00:13:42] Jim: Trump is not somewhat vulnerable given all the jeopardy he’s in legally. Yeah. To minor fluctuations, you know minor attrition, you know that small attrition in these competitive states could tell the

[00:13:55] Josh: tale Yeah, and I think it’s true for biden also. I mean to be fair

[00:13:59] Jim: But that’s all that’s the other that’s the other shoe.

[00:14:01] Jim: I mean,

[00:14:02] Josh: this is a I mean, you know, this is a weird election, you know For a lot of reasons and I think you know There’s the obvious reasons it’s kind of a weird election having to do with you know Sort of Trump’s, you know, whatever you want to call it, norm busting, you know, Biden’s age. I mean, whatever those, all those things all, all play.

[00:14:18] Josh: I mean, we’re still, I think, you know, I think one thing that I think we’re kind of failing to appreciate, I’m just going to say this right now, but like, we’re still coming out of the pandemic. Like I, that sort of like sounds crazy, but it’s not because we’re still dealing with the financial, the economic consequences of it.

[00:14:31] Josh: And even a lot of the social cultural consequences of it. And so we’re still in a strange place. Having said that, I mean, when I said that it’s weird, I think it’s weird in sort of a different way, which is, you know, normally. You know, we think about these elections in terms of like, you know, persuasion versus mobilization is like a classic kind of concept to kind of frame how you think about it.

[00:14:50] Josh: Often we think about the mobilization of partisans and in some ways. You know, in the inverse, we are talking about the mobilization of base partisans, you know, how, you know, is, is Biden going to do well enough with black Democrats? Is Trump going to do, you know, well enough with suburban republicans and so on and so forth?

[00:15:05] Josh: But in some ways, it’s almost like that’s not really what we’re talking about here. We’re really talking about attrition. It’s like, you know, I mean, it’s like, you know, it’s not persuasion. It’s not mobilization. It’s questions of attrition. It’s, you know, can Biden shore up You know, his progressive base after, you know, issues going on with, you know, the Israel Gaza conflict, for example, and, and deal in issues going on with the border.

[00:15:23] Josh: Yeah.

[00:15:23] Jim: If they make a deal, I mean, they clearly badly want to make a deal on immigration and we’ll come to that, but that, that, that is, that is not the favored move of the progressive wing of the

[00:15:32] Josh: party. Yeah. And so, you know, Biden in some ways is trying to figure out, you know, how he can manage, you know, his own attrition issues.

[00:15:39] Josh: And Trump in some ways, you know, has attrition issues that are, you know, I don’t think anybody’s trying to manage and if anything are being papered over a lot, which is maybe why we talk about it more, but in some ways, I mean, the math is almost, I mean, it’s sort of, you know, we talk about this sometimes like social science math is tricky because really like the question isn’t, you know, is Biden going to have, you know, 85 or 90 percent of African Americans voting for him?

[00:16:01] Josh: I mean, there’s that sort of question, but it’s almost like, you know, is he going to lose? 0 percent of core, you know, democratic, let’s say, you know, voters under 30, or is he going to lose 5%? And so we’re kind of looking at these small numbers and the collection of them, I think, in some ways across the electorate.

[00:16:19] Josh: And look, right now, it’s impossible. You can’t know, because these are all estimates of subgroups a year out. I know that after the election, it’ll be really easy for people to look back and say, this is what happened here, right? I mean, we can’t do that yet. And how wrong all the polls were. And how wrong all the polls were that we’re going to use to analyze what happened.

[00:16:36] Josh: Don’t ask me, but I do think that this is sort of an interesting kind of unique moment where you’re both looking at both candidates in some sort of ways and saying, okay, so like, what if Trump loses, you know, what if Trump underperforms by 4 percent with Republican women this time around compared to last time, you know, that alone might not make a big difference.

[00:16:54] Josh: But when you think about the competitiveness of these, Right. This is where it makes a difference, you know, when you’re talking about differences of, you know, a couple thousand votes here or a couple hundred votes here or there, then all of a sudden, you know, uh, you know, turn out rate, you know, two points below the target kind of makes a big difference.

[00:17:13] Josh: But it’s hard to, it’s hard to tell a story like that in the lead up to the election. Well, there’s a look at these big, big, large groups of voters. Oh, this is why. This is where you know, this is where evangelical republicans came around for trump You’re talking about the fat part of the distribution.

[00:17:26] Josh: You’re not talking about the small share Who’s like, you know, maybe not for

[00:17:28] Jim: me, right? Well, yeah, and I think just to add a small, you know data point on that, you know Since we talked about the trump trend, I mean, you know the biden trending job approval in texas You know is not great. I mean he’s He’s been at basically 75 in our last three polls approval among Democrats.

[00:17:50] Jim: And that’s, you know, on the low end of where he’s been. Right. I mean, not, you know, in no way, should anybody look at these numbers and say, Oh, Biden’s support in among Texas Democrats has collapsed. That is not saying that, but. You know, if you basically take out the first, say, six months, the first four polls that we did between February and June of 2021, which was, you know, pandemic response, early, early period Biden honeymoon, all these things where his approval among Democrats and, you know, Lingering euphoria over the fact that Trump was gone among Democrats, you know, his job approval is between is, you know, 89 87 88 88 in those four polls, you know, he hasn’t been above 80 since June of 2021, though, at or above 80.

[00:18:44] Jim: And he’s been well, that’s not true. I guess he had a little burst in it. In early in late 22 early 23 after the election, but he’s been in the mid 70s mostly Yeah,

[00:18:57] Josh: I think one of the things that’s sort of you know I don’t know whether this is true or not I mean in terms of this instance of it, but like this is also a pattern that like we should become pretty used to Right.

[00:19:06] Josh: I mean both both both in the main in the sense of the honeymoon period and its eventual wearing off But also just but also even in the internals of that like I mean, we’re sort of looking at just approval overall Ultimately, governing is hard. We’ve said this multiple times. You ultimately have to make decisions.

[00:19:18] Josh: You know, as I think I love, you know, Obama’s take on this, like nobody brings like a set of good decisions to the president to decide, you know, what great thing he gets to do. It’s usually the worst decisions. And so whether you’re Trump, whether you’re Obama, whether you’re Biden, whether you’re Bush, you end up making a lot of decisions that are going to make people unhappy and clean people unhappy in your party.

[00:19:35] Josh: And so when we break those numbers down, what you tend to find is that like. Democratic distaste or dislike or unfavorable reigns for Trump are through the roof and they’re extreme, you know, so most Democrats hold very unfavorable views of Trump. Ask, you know, whether they have a favorable view of Biden or whether they approve of how he’s doing.

[00:19:51] Josh: They, you know, the positive views generally split between the most favorable and then the next most favorable category because again, governing is challenging, right? And so I think, you know, we’re at a point where there is a lot of this being sort of, You know drummed up in part of the the lead up to sort of the campaign year and campaign coverage to say oh my god Look how weak Biden is and I think there’s some truth to that for sure and a lot of that has to do with through These other macro, you know external factors as well.

[00:20:18] Josh: But also it’s just like this is the pattern This is what happens and this is what happens before you get into a campaign where all of a sudden, you know Those Democrats who may be like, well, you know, I don’t know if Biden’s taking on Inflation strongly enough you say well, you’re gonna vote for Trump Yeah, no chance.

[00:20:33] Josh: So let’s just, you know, we got, we got, you know, there’s a certain period that needs to happen where this sort of stuff needs to, you know, congeal in some kind of way that really just hasn’t yet. And anything I think that’s sort of going too far down this line is like looking at data in January is like, you know, it’s useful and it’s instructive.

[00:20:49] Josh: And I think trend data is obviously a lot more instructive because it can tell us what’s sort of real versus ephemeral, what’s durable in these attitudes. However, There’s a little ways to go here.

[00:20:59] Jim: Yeah. And I think, you know, as we know, the, you know, the, the patterns related to partisan political attitudes and how partisanship affects voting behavior have yet to set in.

[00:21:12] Jim: Exactly. You know, we’re in the primary season where, and in fact, we’re in the opposite part. We’re in the, we’re in the, we’re at the place where divisions are most likely and doubts are most likely to express themselves. Um, you know, that said, you know, in terms of where Trump stands, I was interested to see.

[00:21:30] Jim: In the Iowa exit polls. Um, and I was looking at the Washington Post, the ones the Washington Post posted, and I think there’s a couple of different variances, but nonetheless, you know, the exit polls show evidence of very similar patterns that we’re seeing in Texas in terms of what we might think of as some of the Trump offsets or qualifications, and that is you know, kind of widespread indifference to Trump’s legal issues.

[00:21:56] Jim: I mean, widespread awareness of them matched by widespread indifference. And, and the continuing rejection of the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election.

[00:22:07] Josh: Yeah, right. I mean, our October 23 poll, when we last asked about this, found, you know, two, basically just about two thirds of Republican voters disagreeing with the proposition that protesters who entered the U.

[00:22:17] Josh: S. Capitol on January 6th were trying to overturn the election. Uh, you know, 62 percent same amount said that, you know, Joe Biden was not legitimately elected in 2020 and then, you know, kind of going to the aftermath or at least partial aftermath, you know, asked in sort of August polling of last year about, uh, four different sets of criminal charges that Trump is facing, at least 70 percent of the GOP voters and really much closer to 80 or 85% viewed each of those charges as politically

[00:22:42] Jim: motivated.

[00:22:43] Jim: Right, what we mean by that is we polled on, on, in that poll, we broke out different legal problems to see if there was much variance. And there’s a little bit, but not. Not much. Not, not enough to really, you know, make a difference. I mean, it was interesting, I think, the, yeah, so. Well,

[00:23:01] Josh: we wanted to make sure.

[00:23:02] Josh: I mean, these are the sort of questions pollsters discuss all the time. It’s sort of, you know, do we just want to take a blanket approach to sort of the criminal issue, to put this in quotes, the criminal, you know. Right. Criminal investigations Donald Trump is facing. But honestly, they’re different, right?

[00:23:15] Josh: And so we do want to add, and they’re not only really different, but we know from the polling that people are hearing a lot about them. So it’s actually worthwhile to ask about, uh, you know, the campaign finance violations versus the document issues versus the overturning of the election. Those are different, different sets of issues.

[00:23:33] Jim: Yeah. And, and, you know, the big takeaway there, like, you know, was that obviously didn’t make much of a difference in Iowa. And, you know, it doesn’t look like it’s making much of a difference here. And I, and I think, you know, that carries over then into, you know, how we see Trump as a, as a figure in Texas politics and I, and I, you know, it, you know, both in terms of the election, but also internally to the general kind of attitudinal orientation and, and the.

[00:24:06] Jim: For lack of a better term, you know, the mood of Texas Republicans vis a vis these kinds of issues, because I think, you know, we, we’ve dined out a lot, or we’ve kind of staked out a position in the podcast and in writing that, you know, Ken Paxton hoped to benefit and to be seen as a Donald Trump like figure, and that we’re not seeing him elevated in that sense, given his approval numbers.

[00:24:32] Jim: On the other hand, you know, it’s hard for me not to feel like. You know, Donald Trump’s long term effort to undermine people’s, you know, voters, in particular, Republican voters belief that the justice system and the criminal justice system work are legitimate and can be trusted almost certainly has helped Paxton among Republicans.

[00:24:59] Jim: Yeah, I don’t have, you know, I mean, I can’t point to anything that says aha on that, I don’t think, other than what we’ve already there, but I mean, I, you know, I think every time, you know, Ken Paxton’s, you know, loses some motion in court or gets impeached, you know, it’s, you know, I think it’s pretty plausible to say that when he says, you know, the house is, you know, illegitimate or the courts are crooked or, you know, this is just a political vendetta, vendetta by.

[00:25:33] Jim: This judicial actor or that judicial actor that the ground has not been pretty well plowed for that to be accepted by Republican

[00:25:43] Josh: voters. Yeah, I agree with that. I think, you know, there’s a, there’s like a fine, I

[00:25:46] Jim: don’t want to go too far with that, but I mean, but I, but I think it’s right.

[00:25:49] Josh: No, there’s a fine, I agree with

[00:25:51] Jim: you.

[00:25:51] Jim: I think there’s a fine, just because the alternate explanation is, is, doesn’t make any sense that people would go, oh yeah, these things are totally different. Yeah. You see no evidence that that’s

[00:25:58] Josh: happening. Yeah, I agree. I think there’s just a very tiny, fine distinction to make within that, which is to say, you know, to the extent that when, when Ken Paxton says, hey, the judicial system is biased against Republicans, conservatives, me.

[00:26:11] Josh: What, what, yeah. Whatever it is, um, you know, the ground is fertile for those types of arguments, right? And so, you know, because Trump has made it so fertile for those types of arguments, it doesn’t mean that people wholeheartedly, you know, agree with it. It doesn’t mean that people necessarily wholeheartedly have like a, a, you know, a strong ro you know, robust built out sort of sense of why this is the case.

[00:26:30] Josh: But it sounds familiar. Right. In and of itself, that, if it sounds familiar, then it sounds plausible, and that sort of makes that work. Now, at the same time, you know, that sounding plausible and sort of, you know, making that an acceptable argument on the one hand doesn’t translate so well to the, to the other piece of sort of Trump’s.

[00:26:50] Josh: Approach to this, which is to say that, you know, essentially support for his support for him supportive for his version of events, uh, you know, his narrative becomes the litmus test for Republicans and because the limits has for Republican candidates in particular and Paxson’s ability to take sort of, you know, general distrust of institution systems, the legal system in general and turn it into, you know, sort of the, You know, just really just a set piece, a background set piece.

[00:27:18] Josh: It

[00:27:18] Jim: doesn’t automatically make him the champion of that. No. To the extent that you think of that as a cause, it doesn’t make Paxson the automatic champion of that cause in the way that, you know, people, you know, a lot of Republicans do seem to have accepted Trump as the champion of

[00:27:33] Josh: that cause. Well, and that’s the thing.

[00:27:34] Josh: I mean, you know, yeah. And in Trump’s case, it’s really at the service of something else, which is, you know, him. Yeah, yeah, just the service of him, you know, whereas, you know, for Paxton, the idea that this is sort of, you know, it’s, it’s a bank show. We say, okay, we can’t trust the system. So therefore, what’s going on to me is unfair.

[00:27:51] Josh: So therefore, you should, it’s like, and Trump is such a, I mean, you know, we’re kind of jumping around and some of the discussion points here, but, you know, I mean, I think one of the things, Things that Trump has done really well in some ways. We talk about this idea of, of repeated games, you know, often in this podcast and it’s another sort of game theory, you know, I, our kind of concept is the idea of a credible threat.

[00:28:11] Josh: Well, Trump is an incredibly credible actor when it comes to threatening and following through with Republican elected officials who don’t tow his line. Right. And so because of that, I mean, it doesn’t matter whether you, you are a governor. State senator, a state rep, a congressperson, you could be the county commissioner, you could, you know, use the old saw, you could be the GOP dog catcher, but none of those people are going to say, you know, maybe Trump should have told those protesters to like cool it earlier, you know, or, you know, maybe I would have not like handled classified documents that way.

[00:28:48] Josh: I mean, even the most, the lightest sort of even seeming passing glancing criticism is very likely to have Trump. I think you

[00:28:57] Jim: respond with massive retaliation. Yeah, and it’s and it’s we’re talking

[00:29:00] Josh: about international. Yeah, and that’s and that’s and that’s a that’s a credible threat And it’s a repeated game and they know this and I mean paxton right now I mean going to these republican primaries.

[00:29:09] Josh: I mean a lot of the question in texas is the extent to which you know He is gonna be effective at weighed in on these primaries against republicans who voted for for his impeachment and setting aside resource considerations on let’s just you know, it’s It’s not as credible of a threat. I mean, it’s already being presented.

[00:29:25] Josh: It’s already, that’s already clear regardless of what happens, right? And so it’s just a different, it’s just a different thing, right? But at the same time, going back to the overarching piece of this, but Trump’s, you know, persistence and consistency and being, you know, a credible threatening force means that he really does hold sway over sort of the policy and the actions of Republican elected officials here in Texas in a way that’s really Outsized and remarkable.

[00:29:52] Josh: Yeah,

[00:29:52] Jim: and and look we were talking beforehand you were making, you know, sort of making the case that you know There’s lots of reasons that republicans in their own self interest might be concerned, right? I mean, yeah Absolutely, and you’re hearing this, you know, I mean look you you heard this from you know, but look I mean, you know Just to jump to that.

[00:30:09] Jim: I mean, you know You make the argument, but I mean, the argument was, has been made by some people may, you know, one can say that it was the wrong vehicle if you’re thinking about somebody like Chris Christie or Asa Hutchison, but this is out there, right? I mean, in terms of, you know, the list of, of things that might concern you just in terms of, you know, strict self political self interest as a candidate.

[00:30:33] Josh: Yeah, it’s really striking at this moment in the sense that, you know, like the Democrats right now are just hemming and hawing about Biden like crazy. I mean, the number of articles in the New York Times about, you know, these internal discussions amongst, you know, Democratic, you know, important Democratic officials about the campaign strategy or not of Biden, Biden’s age and and Israel and the board and all these things.

[00:30:53] Jim: Right up to Barack Obama. This was news last week or the week before, you know. Having a phone call, you know, having a, you know, a conversation with Joe Biden in which he voiced his concerns,

[00:31:02] Josh: you know, right. And yet, you know, there’s, you know, I mean outside of sort of the Chris Chrissy’s world who’ve really been pushed, you know, really to the fringes, you know, of the GOP, you know, there doesn’t really seem to be.

[00:31:13] Josh: At least apparently very much concern among Republicans about Trump’s candidacy, despite clear reasons for it. Now again, part of this is because of what we talked about. I mean, there’s a, there’s a, there’s a chokehold here. I mean, you can’t really voice these things lest you be punished. But like, just to point that out, like he’s lost two national elections.

[00:31:30] Josh: I mean, this is again, just, just, you know, the popular vote and last two elections he was in, he lost. Also, you know, in terms of the last two elections he was part of besides 2016, lost a lot of seats. You know, didn’t really maintain a majority very well. And then I think the thing that I would be most worried about, you know, I think among, you know, if you’re thinking about what the, what Republicans should be most worried about is he hasn’t really done anything to expand his appeal since he left office.

[00:31:55] Josh: And if anything, he’s done a lot to really insulate himself within some of the more fringe elements of his party. And he was really kind of, you know, trying to keep something of an arm’s length with, you know, sort of think about the Proud Boys comment and, and that kind of stuff. And you go from that to sort of embracing, you know, just clearly Nazi like rhetoric with respect to America’s blood and things like this.

[00:32:17] Josh: Like, this is not necessarily The, the rhetoric or the approach of someone who’s looking to expand their appeal. I would be worried about that, you know, if I were a Republican voter, you know, going into 2024, those twin factors, but it’s sort of like, but because of, again, the stranglehold that Trump has, I mean, almost no one is willing to give, to give voice to this consideration.

[00:32:38] Jim: Well, the other interesting thing about Trump on that too, is, you know, I, you know, the, the one place where I would say, well, you know, he is showing a more. Conventional kind of move in that direction. And I think if it’s consistent with what he thinks, frankly, is the way he’s trying to split the difference on abortion.

[00:32:58] Josh: Well, like that, he’s in that way, he’s like every other Republican. Right. Yeah. Right.

[00:33:03] Jim: I mean, you know, but, but, you know, but, but as the guy that’s sending the most powerful signals, you know, it’s, it’s been an interesting dynamic to watch that.

[00:33:13] Josh: Yeah. I mean, I think that also sort of raises this other kind of, you know, sort of broad sort of Trump.

[00:33:18] Josh: Trump related effect on the political system in Texas and elsewhere, which is sort of, you know, it does raise questions about sort of the strength of the party going forward. So one, you know, you think more just pragmatically, like what happens when Trump, you know, either exits the field, goes to jail, dies.

[00:33:31] Josh: It’s not, I mean, I think one of the things that this Republican primary has made clear is it’s not really easy to be Trump, right? In the sense that I think there have were other candidates who thought, well, I can be Trump, but without this bad part, or like, I can, I can talk like Trump. And I mean, so far, no one has really proven that

[00:33:47] Jim: it’s not that easy to occupy the Trump space, right?

[00:33:50] Jim: I mean, that’s kind of the DeSantis story. That is

[00:33:52] Josh: the DeSantis story as far as I’m concerned, you know, it just wasn’t, it wasn’t possible. So on the one hand, there’s this question of, you know, what happens to the party when this really huge animating force is no longer the enemy force. But then the thing that I also think about is, you know, someone politically science oriented is like, you know, and, and, and what, and I guess I don’t have phrases, but sort of, you know, What’s the role of ideology and all that?

[00:34:13] Josh: And I raised that because you brought up the abortion issue is an interesting sort of, sort of piece of this. And you know, and we’ve talked, you know, on this podcast a couple times and I think we’ve sort of p at it and we keep talking about how we might wanna try to get, be, get at this question better.

[00:34:26] Josh: But I mean, I think, you know, pinning down the nature of ideology and what it means to be conservative in the Republican party at this point in time is becoming increasingly difficult and complicated. And part of that complexity really, in a lot of ways is traced. back to Trump, right? Who’s really made it in a lot of ways a party about him.

[00:34:44] Josh: Now, again, he definitely has a set of issues, uh, that are a big part of his appeal. So I’m not going to say it’s, you know, uh, devoid of, you know, policy desires and things like that and something, you know, like an ideology. Um, but it’s not the ideology, I think, that, you know, Republicans have sort of relied on, you know, in the last 20 or 30 years as sort of a touchstone from which to, to move from.

[00:35:08] Josh: Yeah,

[00:35:08] Jim: I mean, you know, there’s, there’s been a lot, yeah, been a lot of discussion of that, and I think, you know, we still, you know, Trump is so, you know, I mean, you know, there’s such a personalism to Trump’s appeal, not that it’s not, you know, in a, in a fairly identifiable ideological space, but that’s not his, That’s not the heart of his appeal right rhetorically, or, you know, however you want to, you know, whatever, you know, spaces you construct, right?

[00:35:39] Jim: I mean, you know, you know, Trump will call, you know, I mean, Trump will call names that are rude, call people names and insult them and, you know, try to hurt them using that kind of insult. I mean, you know, I mean, this was probably scripted for him by somebody in Texas, but, you know, for example, you know, when he referred to Dave Phelan as a rhino, right?

[00:36:00] Jim: Right. But, but Trump does not stand up very much, very frequently other than, you know, in terms of, you know, a narrow casted argument and say, you know, I am the true conservative very often, or I am the person who will save conservatism. It’s just not, he leaves that to other people to do, and he gives people the work to do.

[00:36:22] Jim: I mean, you know, he’s splitting the difference on abortion is, you know, something along the lines of, you know, here I, you know, I gave you. You know, I gave you the court, the rest, I, I, you know, I’ve done, I’ve done my bit. Well,

[00:36:37] Josh: you know, and I mean, interesting just thinking about now, I mean, you know, going back to, to the last His last period of, you know, in the presidency.

[00:36:45] Josh: I mean, you know, the idea was he added to add He had to add Mike Pence to the ticket to give him credibility with you know Some of the most conservative voters with evangelicals, right? And I don’t think there’s any consider. I mean, obviously Pence is not gonna be VP But I don’t think that I don’t think that that’s even like the tenor of the discussion at this point.

[00:37:02] Josh: I don’t think

[00:37:02] Jim: yeah I don’t know if you’ve seen it. There’s I don’t know if it’s come out yet but the Jonathan Martin from Politico has a thing about the As a, as a column that came out this morning about the vice presidential race and you know, one of the things that struck me was, you know, I mean, I think that was contained in that article, this kind of like, you know, Donald, you know, what, if there’s anything you saw in the Iowa, also in the Iowa exit polls and in the overall results, it’s that Donald Trump has made the sale to evangelicals and there’s been a, there’s a big New York Times piece on this, I think last week or the week before.

[00:37:38] Jim: Um, But the other thing that was interesting about that is how similar the parsing out of, you know, different vice presidential candidates and the logic for the choice that Trump himself would make. And there’s always, you know, it’s a cottage industry in election years, you know. Talk about why vice presidents get picked and not picked or whatever, but But it’s really similar to things that we’ve been talking about I mean it really highlights some of the things that we’ve been talking about in Texas that are in one of the pieces we posted and I you know, we made reference to the Texas monthly piece You know on you know, the internal fights in the Republican Party that you know, ideology is operative.

[00:38:24] Jim: It’s important But there’s a lot of other things going on, and there’s a lot of other things going on in Trump’s choice of a vice presidential candidate. Just like there are a lot of other things going on in looking at, you know, various conflicts and races that, in Texas that we’ve talked about. You know, Trump is the great disruptor of that nationally, and I think that is having an effect in Texas.

[00:38:50] Jim: And I think when we think about that, that point you were making about Trump and the national party, That is manifesting in Texas, but it’s, it’s manifesting in conjunction with, you know, the dynamic that we’ve talked about a lot, which is that, you know, Republicans are basically left most of the time to hash things out among themselves.

[00:39:16] Jim: Right. And so there’s not, and so, you know, Trump just, you know, I think throws jet fuel on that dynamic in Texas. He’s not even the main, he’s not the main source of it here. I don’t think you can’t really understand it without his presence and the, what he’s activated, but you know, he, he’s a factor in, in that, but it goes back to a point that we’ve made while Trump was president, or maybe even while he was still running that, you know, the raw materials of what, you know, Trump himself and and Trump’s opponents and Democrats now call kind of the MAGA You know ideologic the MAGA tendency in politics All those raw materials were pretty active and and already kind of in play in Texas Before Trump even entered the stage, he, he catalyzed and mobilized that stuff and basically kind of stepped over Ted Cruz in adopting the most ideological and the most combative elements of that.

[00:40:17] Josh: Yeah, and in doing so, I think, you know, to your point, there’s a lot more going on in each of these elections. But what’s interesting is that, you know, to the extent there’s a lot more going on, It’s still being framed in this kind of almost antiquated frame of like, well, who’s the true conservative? Who’s the rhino?

[00:40:30] Josh: Who’s the crypto Democrat or whatever? And it’s in some ways, you know, even we wrote about this, maybe we talked about this recently, you know, 10 years ago, like, I mean, that almost would have made sense, right? You know, in the sense that you, you could look at the two main candidates in a Republican primary for, you know, uh, Uh, you know a state house race and you could see that you could look at the interest group alignment behind them You know, you’d have basically what’s usually a very, you know, a solidly conservative, you know across any classical kind of measures of conservative incumbent member Being portrayed as anything but by someone challenging them from you know further on the right Right and at this point You know, I mean, and that described, I would say, honestly, that described most competitive races in the primary.

[00:41:09] Josh: That was a pretty good shorthand. I mean, there’s occasionally there’d be like a member who left a seat and came back or whatever, or there’s

[00:41:14] Jim: local dynamics that like, you know, don’t

[00:41:16] Josh: get picked up or so and so yeah. So and so has had a long running dispute with, you know, the county commissioner right now that blah, blah, blah.

[00:41:23] Josh: Right. Sure. Politics, local. That stuff happens. But that wasn’t, that was, those were the edge cases. Whereas now, you know, when you say, okay, you know, this incumbents being challenged by this challenger and you say, well, Abbott’s on one side, Paxton’s on the other. Trump is, you know, kind of like, you know, both of them are claiming that they’re Trump’s candidate.

[00:41:42] Josh: And really like, ultimately we’re talking about, you know, if you think about the output of legislative legislation, less physicians, extremely conservative members by any measure. It’s not like these members were not voting for the most conservative policy measures, but But all of a sudden the term just has, you know, I wouldn’t say the term necessary.

[00:41:56] Josh: I don’t know. I don’t know if I want to say this way. I’ll say it. And then I may also say, but either the term has less meaning now, or it’s just so, uh, you know, difficult to

[00:42:05] Jim: discern. Well, and one of the things we were writing, and I don’t remember if I edited out or not recently, I think the longer, you know, the more focused piece on the website from a few days ago, you know, I kept wanting to talk about the destabilization of the meaning of conservatism.

[00:42:18] Jim: You know, and what, what resonates as conservative and, you know, there’s a lot of, you know, kind of conventional pieces to that, dare we say, you know, you know, the shift in the Overton window in the Republican Party, but you know, what we, what we, you know, sort of have. Referred to in various kind of linguistic and conceptual constructions as, you know, the expansion of the realm of legitimate discourse in the Republican Party in a rightward direction, right?

[00:42:48] Jim: So I think, you know, and I’m kind of mindful of that because I think there are some of these races where You know, the person being derided as a rhino in some of the extreme cases here, the challenge to say people like Briscoe Cain and Jared Patterson, you know, you got to really question whether by any, you know, if you could come up with any kind of objective measure, the people challenging them are particularly more conservative than those candidates.

[00:43:17] Jim: So those cases exist. But I do think that in some of these cases, I mean, you know, people that were. Candidates and that are now incumbents that were the most incumbent person in their prime, the most conservative by any kind of reasonable measure of whether it’s ratings or voting records or pronouncements, you know, were arguably, you know, at the writer at the right word edge of the spectrum in that race, they haven’t moved.

[00:43:50] Jim: But to some degree, the window has moved a little, you know, and in some ways a lot. And that And that doesn’t automatically mean that they’re being challenged by somebody more conservative. But it does create, whatever you want to call it, the cognitive space, the political imaginary, where, you know, a different way that I would put, you put, which I, without disagreeing with your characterization of those races, but what I would say is ten years ago, in a lot of these races, we couldn’t have really conceived Of a candidate that would be viable at all that was more conservative than that those people that were staked out on what was then The far right end now we can yeah

[00:44:33] Josh: no, and Yeah, and I mean it could be as simple and

[00:44:36] Jim: whether they are or not that still provides grist for somebody saying well, you know This person is not conservative enough When people are like, well, yeah, I guess we could, you know, do it like actually coming up with criminal, criminal penalties for women who get abortions.

[00:44:55] Josh: Yeah, I mean, we’re, well, I mean, we’re getting, well, I would say,

[00:44:57] Jim: you know, I mean, that’s a, that’s a bad example because it’s so sweet, but it’s not a terrible one. No, but here,

[00:45:01] Josh: I’ll give me some less hypothetical examples and this sort of reached, you know, to the point, right? Which is, you know, it’s like, well.

[00:45:07] Josh: Yes, that’s true. But did you vote to impeach Ken Paxson? Well, then maybe you’re not a conservative, you know, did you, did you, did you vote against, you know, the voucher, you know, piece of the education? Well, then maybe you’re not a conservative, you know, but I mean, there’s some other stuff that’s kind of floating around out there that I can’t help but think about, which is like, Oh, did you think that the state party should, you know, put out a statement that says that we shouldn’t associate with, uh, Nazis?

[00:45:30] Josh: Right. Now that’s an example of, you know, the expansion of the discourse, right? Yeah, no, I think that’s right. And I think that’s sort of, you know, and I mean, I don’t want to say that, you know, race and demographic change shoot through all of this, but we’ve written a lot about that. So it’s a big, it’s a big.

[00:45:43] Josh: Oh yeah. But it’s

[00:45:44] Jim: crazy to not. Yeah. Yeah.

[00:45:45] Josh: And it cuts through, I think, in a way that’s not as, as clear. You know, I would say it’s not as traditionally ideological as people, as people tend to think, you know, I’m sort of thinking back to, you know, if you go and you read Milton Friedman talking about, you know, sort of the conservative approach to sort of, you know, racial integration and equality and things like, I mean, and all, you know, whether you agree with that kind of stuff or not.

[00:46:04] Josh: It was a part of the discourse.

[00:46:05] Jim: Well, and that go, and that goes to the ear, that goes to the earlier point, right? That, and, and, and in Texas it was part of the discourse in a much, it was much clo it was very close to the surface than a lot of discussions Uhhuh.

[00:46:17] Josh: Yeah. And it, but you know, the thing was, and I’d say going back to this 10 year, you know, I mean, it was much closer to the surface in a very different way 10 years ago.

[00:46:23] Josh: Right. I mean, in some ways, you know, you think about the Rick, the Rick Perry, , you know, snafu right? In saying, you know, basically saying that if you don’t care about, you know, these dreamers, these kids go to college, you don’t have a heart. And the idea that like. You know one the fact that that sort of was a part of the one of the death knells for him You know at the time was kind of surprising but was evident why that would be the case going forward But the idea that you could imagine anyone in texas staking out anything close to a similar position at this point Despite the fact that the state’s demographics have continued the trend in the same direction It’s, you know, it is a remarkable shift in the tone, but it also speaks to the idea that, you know, ideology is hard to peg down because it’s not a left right thing and you can kind of, you can kind of turn it depending on who’s talking and whether they have the resources to, to make that message, you know, I would say central.

[00:47:09] Jim: Yeah. And I, you know, I mean, I don’t have it right in front of me. I would be interested, you know, it would be, it would be actually, you know, this is a good idea for something to kind of parse out to pick a few of these things and go back and look at what, what some of these attitudes look like. Pre Trump, you know, discrimination, you know, you know, how much of things, you know, where have things changed and where were they just bubbling under and nobody was exploiting them.

[00:47:33] Jim: And that is, you know, I think at the end of the day where, you know, if we’re going to talk about Trump’s impact, you know, Trump has, you know, did, you know, this has become a cliched point now, I’m afraid, but I think. You know, Trump not, you know, I mean, I think the cliched part is, you know, Trump said things out loud that Republicans were maybe a little bit reticent to say out loud, even in primaries, particularly around the kind of issues you’re talking about, cultural nationalism, race.

[00:48:03] Josh: I mean, look, there’s a, there’s a, I just have to mention it because it’s the most obvious sort of prominent recent example. I mean, you know, the governor’s comments about how, you know, we’re not shooting people crossing the border because the federal government would charge

[00:48:14] Jim: us a heart, yo, I, that, that

[00:48:15] Josh: example.

[00:48:15] Josh: No, it charges with murder. Yeah. I mean, look, whether that was, you know, a slip up, whether that was, you know, a, a, a, a, you know, let’s say an ill considered way to say it, whether that was what was truly in his heart, I don’t know, I never will, right? But that’s not the sort of comment that I think a politician, a statewide, you know, politician, a governor.

[00:48:32] Josh: Right. Would have ever considered saying, you know, 10 years ago, but it’s sort of, but not only is it sort of, I’m saying, I’m not going to say it’s acceptable, but I mean the blowback such as it is for someone like Abbott on this is actually relatively minimal, not only because

[00:48:46] Jim: it was, it was here, it was maybe a new cycle.

[00:48:49] Josh: It was a new cycle. And I’m not,

[00:48:51] Jim: I’m not even sure that ultimately it’s even fair to say. He suffered a knee blow back. He got a little, he got a little bit of like, you know, negative coverage, you know, that got even some national play, but I think, I think that’s a great example. I think that I agree. That is a great example of the degree to which, you know, you know, Trump basically was able to liberate things that were there and gave people permission, you know, and again, I would go back to my earlier point.

[00:49:20] Jim: And I think that is. You know, it’s been a multiplier in Texas in terms of the degree to which, you know, those streams of thought and those attitudes have been around for a long time, right? And, and have been, you know, ever present in conservative politics in the state. Um, but they’ve gotten a boost from Trump.

[00:49:45] Jim: And I think that goes, you know, as we’re getting close to the 50 minute mark here, I mean, I, I think that. One of the things then, you know, to kind of think about with that is that, you know, to your question of well, you know, where’s the Republican Party gonna be if Trump is convicted and you know, I don’t think this is gonna happen, but he’s, you know, if he’s convicted and the bottom drops out of his support.

[00:50:10] Jim: And I’m not convinced that that would be the outcome or you know He loses enough support that he then loses and he’s maybe at least politically discredited among elites You know, where does that leave the party? I you know I don’t look now and see where the energy would be in the base Yeah to move the party to edge the party back toward the center and and by and and I don’t mean to the center But just in that direction, you know, yeah, I mean, I just don’t I mean, I mean, you know We may find out in some other work we’re doing I mean You know, maybe some of the people that have just been hunkering down and taking the long view and waiting for the fever to pass will go, well, you know, this took longer than I had hoped.

[00:50:58] Jim: But now I’ll poke my head above the edges. But I don’t know that there’s enough of the rubber band snapping back. To enable that kind of behavior. And I, and I, and I don’t look around the Republican party and see a lot of good candidates for leading it, at least at this point now they’re all laying low.

[00:51:17] Jim: So why would I,

[00:51:18] Josh: but yeah, I mean, the only thing, the only thing I would put as a potential sort of counterpoint on that, I mean, I don’t disagree with it. In the main would just be to point out that, you know, in the last election cycle that Trump was on the ballot in Texas, a lot of candidates. Uh, outperformed him.

[00:51:32] Josh: Yeah. And, and a lot of candidates, especially in the, in the most populous areas of the state, outperformed him. Now, this is obviously, is a reflection of both, you know, Republican voters, but also some Independents, maybe some Democrats in some of these areas. And so, I mean, there is evidence. That, you know, I mean, look, I mean, how could John, I mean, you know, we’ve talked a lot about John Cornyn and Republican politics and say that the fact that, you know, he sort of has this, you know, kind of middling position with Texas Republicans and yet he outperformed Trump, you know, on a number of places, you know, on that ballot with a very different style of politics.

[00:52:02] Josh: So now look, do I think John Cornyn is the vehicle for, you know, the post Trump Republican era? I will say no, but I do think he could

[00:52:10] Jim: be, you know, he could be Senate majority leader. He could be said majority. I don’t, I don’t, I don’t think he leading, but, you know, he’s a, he’s a contender.

[00:52:18] Josh: There’s a lot of things that have to happen between now and then.

[00:52:20] Josh: But I do think that, you know, if someone wants to say, well, is there evidence, you know, for some desire for, uh, uh, you know, I’ll just put it like a more traditional GOP brand than the one that, you know, Republicans that has been dominated by Trump, you know, in the last, uh, you know, eight years. It’s, it’s possible, right?

[00:52:38] Josh: But, but the other thing is, is, you know, as we talk about all the time is, you know, I think most elected officials can, can’t see past their nose because there’s no reason to. And so really what it comes down to is what matters right now in this election cycle. And so long as Trump remains the force that he remains, you know, it puts, I think, honestly, I think it puts most Republican elected officials in a somewhat difficult position if the question is, well, what’s the Republican party going to look like next?

[00:53:01] Jim: Well, it makes, it makes it hard to judge because, you know, I mean, it’s. You know, we’ve talked again about the political imagination earlier. It’s really hard to imagine like what the actual dynamics are. If there’s a vacuum where Trump was, I mean, some people, some Trump like people obviously try to fill it, but it’s part of, you know, to, to, to put your, you know, to touch on your, your, your point about the time horizons of most elected officials and put it slightly different.

[00:53:31] Jim: I mean, You know, there are a lot of people that, I mean, and I know this from talking to some, having conversations with some Republican officials that are pretty clearly just, you know, completely instrumental about this, you know, people that, you know, very loudly support Trump, but then besides going, so I’m wondering when this is going to be over and I can do something else.

[00:53:53] Jim: Yeah, you know And so, you know, and you know, there’s still the question of what that something else is But I think you know to your point that sentiment is out there But I you know, I guess you know in a more precise way. I wonder so if Trump is gone. What is the lag in? You know, if the base is going to shift direction and orientation, you know, to some degree that will be led by elites to some degree, it will just be the mysteries of, you know, you know, how people interpret the world and, and what their politics look like, you know, what is the lag look like if that is going to happen?

[00:54:30] Jim: And I think the lag is probably pretty significant and, and creates a lot of opportunity for entrepreneurs. To try to fill that Trump ish space.

[00:54:42] Josh: Yeah, and I’ll just put, you know, just one piece of meat on that. The lag is going to be significant because the primary dynamic here, the primary elections in Texas, are still going to be low turnout affairs where, you know, whoever is sort of the most activated in the party is still going to drive the process.

[00:54:55] Josh: Right. And so long as those are MAGA, I’ll put it in quotes, MAGA Republicans, well then that’s going to be the tone of the candidates.

[00:55:02] Jim: Well that could, yeah, I mean, it goes back to the point we made earlier, which is that, you know, Those forces that are dominant and have become more powerful in the Republican party as an organization Have been there for a long time and are pretty well entrenched and are not likely to shift significantly after this now The outcomes of some of those fights could be different, but you know,

[00:55:28] Josh: yeah, you don’t think they’re going to say, well, Trump’s gone.

[00:55:30] Josh: He lost, you know, let’s say he loses and you’re going to go, you know, this isn’t working. We’re going to, we’re going to take our power and give it back to you guys and go home, go chamber of commerce,

[00:55:38] Jim: you know, we’re good. Yeah. Or we’re going to, you know, we’re going to decide that. All these things that we felt were important and, you know, and, you know, we identify with, we’re not going to identify with anymore.

[00:55:50] Jim: And I just don’t, I don’t see much chance of that, so. Alright, with that, good chat, good chat. Um. That was fun. Uh, I want to thank Josh for being here. I want to Thank as always our excellent production team in the dev studio in the college of liberal arts at ut austin Point you again to texaspolitics.

[00:56:13] Jim: utexas. edu where you can find the data that we’ve talked about um, if you’re finding this podcast on one of the Excellent plot podcast platforms that carry us, uh, you will, if you go to the website to where we embed the podcast, you’ll find supplemental material links. We’ve mentioned data we’ve mentioned.

[00:56:34] Jim: Uh, so thank you for listening. Uh, if you’re in Texas, enjoy the break in the weather and we’ll be back soon with another second reading podcast.

[00:56:50] Outro: The second reading podcast is a production of the Texas politics project at the university of Texas at Austin.