Jan 30th, 2024 – Texas Border Politics Take National Center Stage

[00:00:00] Intro: Welcome to the second reading podcast from the University of Texas at Austin. The Republicans were in the Democratic party because there was only one party. So I tell people on a regular basis, there is still a land of opportunity in America. It’s called Texas. The problem is these departures from the constitution, they have become the norm. At what point must a female senator raise her hand or her voice to be recognized? Over the male colleagues in the room.

[00:00:33] Jim Henson: And welcome back to the second reading podcast. I’m Jim Henson, director of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin. Joined today by Josh Blank, research director for the Texas Politics Project.

[00:00:45] Jim Henson: Same thing. Same project. Same project.

[00:00:48] Josh Blank: Yeah, that’s right. Um. A lot of variety in the town here.

[00:00:55] Jim Henson: You know, yeah, there, there are capitalized project. There we go. There we go. The [00:01:00] proper title. Um, so where are we today? You know, the, as has been the case, as we kind of made the point last week, which is kind of the point of the podcast last week.

[00:01:11] Jim Henson: A lot going on. Um. You know, I want to dig in a little bit more on something that we, that we flagged last time and, and a not a new topic for this podcast. Um, and that is the attention, the way in which the attention to immigration and border security in national politics. You know, uh, seems to present a kind of moment of convergence of national and Texas politics, you know, that we, and, and, you know, the, the Texas politics that we’ve talked about a lot, and we talk about all the time.

[00:01:43] Jim Henson: And that’s not to say that immigration and border security have not been a simmering, uh, you know, occasionally coming to a boil national issue, you know, in the same window. Um, but you know, we talk about this a lot [00:02:00] from the perspective of Texas, and all of a sudden, you know, I mean, I, you know, I, I mean, I guess just the experiential trigger, I mean, there’s a lot of them there was, you know, sort of reading lots of press accounts and in the national political press about how, you know, voters are telling pollsters now that immigration and the border are the most important topics are, you know, are, you know, at the top of the MIP in which we say, well, you know, That’s not news from our perspective, but you know, but the movement nationally, I, you know, is, is fair enough and I haven’t dug super far into it.

[00:02:33] Jim Henson: I’m sure it’s bubbled below the economy and inflation and

[00:02:36] COVID.

[00:02:37] Josh Blank: And just to make a point, I mean, I think, you know, part, part of what’s happened in recent, you know, weeks, if not months, but especially, you know, if you’re looking at the last few weeks here is that, you know, economic Indicators have been looking trending in a better direction.

[00:02:48] Josh Blank: You know, unemployment has remained low. And so some of the issues, I mean, COVID is certainly in the rear view mirror for most people, you know, and so to the extent that the COVID is in the rear view mirror, inflation appears to be, you know, I mean, there’s a lot of talk about a [00:03:00] soft landing on the economy now and that that’s looking more and more likely.

[00:03:02] Josh Blank: And so it’s not surprising that, you know, a different issue has sort of supplanted. It’s, you know, taking the top

[00:03:08] Jim Henson: spot. Immigration is turning the

[00:03:09] Josh Blank: barrel. Yeah, exactly. Well. Yeah.

[00:03:11] Jim Henson: So, you know, I mean, you know, and look, you know, there is a lot going on on this front right now. I mean, you know, as we’re recording this, the House Homeland Security Committee is marking up the, you know, long advertised, uh, impeachment bill targeting Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas.

[00:03:31] Jim Henson: Um. You know, in last week’s podcast, on another front, we touched on the U. S. Supreme Court ruling in favor of the federal government and their ability to cut concertina wire fences erected by Texas along the Rio Grande section of the U. S. Mexico border. Um, You know, on, on a relatively narrow basis, as you were pointing out, and we were discussing in this ruling, and this was not a fully [00:04:00] articulated decision.

[00:04:01] Jim Henson: It was a ruling on a motion.

[00:04:03] Josh Blank: No, I mean, yeah. And importantly, just here, I mean, what it’s done is, is it’s basically allowed the, the federal government to cut the concertina wire. We talked about this last week. It allows texts to say, see, the federal government wants to cut the barbed wire. But the state has also taken the ruling, uh, as, you know, at least so far, tacit approval of continuing to roll out the wire because they didn’t say they couldn’t do it.

[00:04:24] Josh Blank: And so

[00:04:24] Jim Henson: they couldn’t cut it. Now, I should say that on a narrower basis, they have been asked to remove the buoys from, you know, now this is where I think some of the stuff that we got into the weeds on the buoy case, you know, over the summer, it kind of matters here in that, you know, the The federal government kind of sidestepped the bigger issue of constitutional authority in that by arguing a fairly narrow statutory issue having to do with the navigable water navigable waters and jurisdiction over them, etc.

[00:04:59] Jim Henson: Um, [00:05:00] you know also out there and clearly and and I think You know, this is important. I think it’s lost a little bit. I mean, it either gets overplayed or underplayed, I think, but, you know, you do have to note that, you know, the situation on the ground has not improved. If anything, it, you know, we are in an uptick.

[00:05:17] Jim Henson: Yep. I mean, you know, over time, we’ve seen the flow of migrants fluctuating. So, you know, it’s also fair to point out and, and, you know, I mean, I, I think this gets played to comparative advantage depending on who’s pointing this out that, you know, the situation on the ground at the border has not improved recently is and continues to be, you know, a problem.

[00:05:42] Jim Henson: And, you know, it seems maybe likely even to get worse in a couple of ways, but, you know, it’s hard to, hard to predict. But the flow, you know, and we know that the flow of migrants fluctuates from week to week and fluctuates seasonal, seasonally. But when you look at the data coming out of U. S. Customs and Border [00:06:00] Protection, You know, the numbers are higher right now, and certainly among, you know, the migrants seeking asylum, but the overall numbers of encounters, most of those measures are

[00:06:10] Josh Blank: up.

[00:06:11] Josh Blank: Yeah, and I think if we’re just looking within the Biden administration, even right now in December, there were 302, 000 encounters. You know, on the southern border. And I mean, that’s, that’s, you know, I mean, it’s a remarkable amount, even when you look at the data over the, over the entirety of Biden’s presidency, whereas in 2021, you were looking at somewhere between 71, 000 and about a little over 200, 000 encounters in 2022, you’re looking at somewhere between 150 or so and about 240, 000 encounters.

[00:06:41] Josh Blank: 2023, you’re looking at, you know, 200, 000 and, you know, up to almost 270, 000 counts. So, I mean, anyone who wants to sort of ignore, I mean, I think this is something that the Democrats do at their peril a lot is like, there is something going on here. I mean, this is an issue that like is an actual policy problem, you know, to the extent that, you know, you can take, you [00:07:00] know, let’s say the governor’s approach to it in terms of like busing migrants to other cities as more or less.

[00:07:04] Josh Blank: Theater, but the point that I think he’s trying to make and again, setting aside whether you agree with it or the motives of the intention, he’s making the point. You’re like, this is a big problem. You know, you guys should see this. And I think, you know, to some extent, I don’t want to give Abbott all the credit here.

[00:07:18] Josh Blank: And we’ll kind of come back to this, but like, Yeah. It’s kind of worked. It’s expanded the scope of the conflict. It’s expanded the scope of the conversation. It’s put a lot of democrats in a lot of you know Uncomfortable positions in some case if you’re the democratic mayor of some of these cities if you’re a congressional candidate in some cases and so You know, but but say this is but this is not something that’s being let’s say generated out of whole cloth Like this is because the encounters have gone up so

[00:07:41] Jim Henson: much right, right?

[00:07:43] Jim Henson: and so, you know, I mean you you kind of You know, raise the, the Abbott point and, you know, the, obviously the governor was central, has been central to this issue as a, you know, uh, you know, not accidentally and not simply responsibly, [00:08:00] I mean, I think it’s fair to say, and, you know, and again, the politics of this have very much kind of worked out and we’ll touch on that as a little bit later, but I, you know, I mean, you know, in the aftermath of the Supreme Court, Transcribed Uh, ruling, you know, Republican governors have almost uniformly expressed support for Abbott’s tactics is challenged to the federal authority, you know, or both.

[00:08:23] Josh Blank: Yeah, and I should say that move on their part is a little, it’s a little bit cheap, just in the sense that you had Trump basically saying that, you know, these Republican governors should be mobilizing their national guards and stuff. It’s a lot easier to say, no, we support what Abbott’s doing, or,

[00:08:38] Jim Henson: you know, well, and it’s also, you know, it’s played in and created this other kind of sideshow, right?

[00:08:43] Jim Henson: Or, you know, you know, we were talking about this on the way in, I mean, as this morning as we’re driving in, I mean, you know, this whole kind of side piece of, you know, is there, you know, a civil war brewing on the border? And we talked about [00:09:00] this a little bit last year because of the. You know, the conflict being between enforcement arms of both governments, right?

[00:09:07] Jim Henson: Right. And so, you know, I mean, you know, and that has, that has played, you know, relatively well for, for the governor. So, you know, we’ll come back to this piece about where Abbott is, where, you know, that’s kind of where we’re headed a little bit, but that’s, that also then is just brewing out there as part of the context here, you know, and, and, you know, I think the One of the key bits going on that has really fueled a lot of the national coverage aside from you know, the policy problem, right?

[00:09:41] Jim Henson: And, and the day to day is the speculation about the content of a bipartisan deal that’s been, you know, under negotiation in the Senate. I mean, the key figures have been doing, you know, this has been ongoing for several months. I mean, it is the Senate after all, U. S. [00:10:00] Senate. You know, and, you know, this is a deal that includes, you know, is interesting for what it includes, but also for what it doesn’t include, I think, right?

[00:10:09] Jim Henson: So, and again, a lot of this is speculative. I’m going to give some general ideas because if you go back and you look at what’s been leaked out of these negotiations, we still, as of this recording, we haven’t seen a bill. But you get a sense. So there’s new emergency powers granted to DHS under the executive branch to quote unquote shut down the border at certain migrant encounter thresholds.

[00:10:32] Jim Henson: And those, those, the numbers that have come out of that have varied a lot. So I’m not even going to delve into that. And, but we should say, particularly given a point that will come up shortly, if not immediately, you know, The idea that seems to be floating in this bill that, you know, is being taken as the power to shut down the border Really means suspending asylum at official points of entry.

[00:10:58] Jim Henson: Right. At least in most of the [00:11:00] things that I’ve read. Really

[00:11:01] Josh Blank: just, yeah, really, I mean, what we just, just suspending the processing of asylum claims when, you know, encounters have reached some threshold, right? So it’s a, it’s a, I mean, it’s a small point, but it’s a big part of the, I mean, look, it’s really the flashpoint in a lot of ways about right now in terms of when people are talking about immigration.

[00:11:17] Josh Blank: Well, and

[00:11:18] Jim Henson: of course, you know, as we were talking about, you know, just to put it on the table, the president really leaned into this when in encouraging the negotiations, you know, he said in a speech a couple of days ago that, you know, he encouraged the bill and, you know, if they gave him the power to shut down the border, he would shut down the border that drove.

[00:11:38] Jim Henson: You know, Democrats on the left, bananas, you know, it’s set the stage for, you know, the emerging pushback from Republicans that don’t want to make this deal, uh, including, you know, Ted Cruz prominently since we’re a Texas podcast, um, saying, look, you don’t need a legislation to do this. You could do this right now.

[00:11:58] Jim Henson: Now. Now. There’s a [00:12:00] lot of inconsistencies to that.

[00:12:02] Josh Blank: Yes, Cruz is very clear on the record that Congress needs to affect the immigration system until right

[00:12:06] Jim Henson: now. And even, even Trump had said he wanted Congress to act when he was president. The politics of that, of course, have changed. Um, you know, and then there’s, you know, a big bucket of money.

[00:12:19] Jim Henson: That the administration has asked for, and we don’t know how much of this is in the bill. You know, they’ve asked, you know, some reports are they’ve asked for 14 billion dollars for additional enforcement, additional asylum officers, additional border agents, and critically, you know, more immigration judges.

[00:12:36] Jim Henson: And this has been, you know, an ongoing problem going back, at least to the Obama. At least presidency that, you know, there were just not enough judges to hear all these cases that when you get these surges to follow the law that they get a hearing, they have to have a hearing and the hearing can. You know, people are scheduled for a hearing and then released and the hearing is years in the future.

[00:12:58] Jim Henson: Yeah, and

[00:12:58] Josh Blank: this is a problem that [00:13:00] predates any surge you can

[00:13:01] Jim Henson: think of. Yeah, right. So this is, you know, I mean, so, you know, and I think it’s worth noting that, that this is an effort to recognize and address that problem. Whether it works, whether it’s not, you know, the sense of it. I mean, we were talking before we came on, you know, it’s a lot of, you know, you need to find a lot of judges because what they want to do is, you know, sort of say that, you know, you have to get a thumbs up or a thumbs down within six months.

[00:13:22] Jim Henson: Right. It’s one of the

[00:13:23] Josh Blank: details. We’ll come back to this, but like, I mean, is that really the problem that people perceive right?

[00:13:29] Jim Henson: And part of this, and so, you know, and then the other thing that’s been one of the sticking points or one of the other things is changes to the president’s so called immigration parole authority, which gives the president, you know, the ability to grant limited parole to migrants of certain classes.

[00:13:45] Jim Henson: It’s been used mostly, you know, most recently by Biden on, you know, to, to expedite the hearings and, and allow the. Migration of migrants from Ukraine, some Latin American countries, Venezuela, you know, kind of a special [00:14:00] cases exception that Uh, uh, by all reports, Republicans really want to ratchet down and limit, um, for this president and future presidents.

[00:14:09] Josh Blank: So something has been going on for a very, very long time and you can, I mean, we’d have to get someone who’s more of an expert in this, but you can imagine absent any sort of big comprehensive reform. It’s not surprising that administrations, both Democrats and Republicans have leaned more on these kinds of special exceptions because there’s almost, I mean, no.

[00:14:26] Josh Blank: There is zero has been and continues to be zero chance that Congress is going to address any of these things in any sort of particular or even broader way.

[00:14:33] Jim Henson: And it gives, you know, and it gives president’s powers to respond to, you know, short term or, you know, politics that are right in front of them.

[00:14:40] Jim Henson: Ukrainian thing is a good example. Um, you know, I, you know, I said, what’s interesting about this in part is what’s not in here. You know, we, you know, we have a battery in the pole and we, you know, we put it in the December poll that was kind of aimed at. You know, what is essentially, [00:15:00] you know, last decade’s comprehensive immigration reform.

[00:15:04] Jim Henson: Right. I mean, you know, what’s missing from here? There’s no, there’s no. treatment of DACA, right? There’s no discussion of, of what to do with long term residence. There’s no, what we used to call the path to citizenship. Right. You know, even that was a little bit, really it was a path, a better path to legal residency in most

[00:15:26] Josh Blank: cases.

[00:15:26] Josh Blank: No discussion of priorities for legal immigration, what that looks like. Yeah.

[00:15:30] Jim Henson: Nothing about, you know, nothing about workforce issues, H 1B, this is, you know, what are the, you know, are we going to, you know, move people with desired skills ahead of the

[00:15:41] Josh Blank: line? Right. And, you know, and to the extent that, you know, this is, this bill is controversial on both, you know, the right and the left on the left, there’s a lot of confusion because there’s no discussion of what to do about DACA and those programs.

[00:15:53] Josh Blank: Oh, I’m sorry. These exceptions. Yeah, exactly. Right.

[00:15:55] Jim Henson: And then also the, uh, the thing we’re missing is, [00:16:00] uh, Checking the legality of workers. E Verify. E Verify. No, you know, so I think if you step back, you know, no E Verify, no DACA, none of these things that for a long time were You know, there was kind of a, all those things and then some enforcement stuff.

[00:16:19] Jim Henson: This is all pretty much

[00:16:20] Josh Blank: enforcement. Yeah. And it’s all really, really folk. I mean, you know, it’s, it’s all really, really focused on the Southern border and it’s all really, you know, heavily focused on this issue of asylum seekers, right? I mean, which is, which is, which is one, which is again, one of the many paths we could talk about here, you know, in terms of the overarching immigration system.

[00:16:39] Josh Blank: So,

[00:16:40] Jim Henson: so I think you have to kind of keep that in mind. And then, you know, I mean, another thing going on here, you know, you’ve got the context of the bill as part of this grand, I mean, this is really how it emerged, you know, as part of a grand foreign aid bill. I mean, the initial idea was this was a way to balance out [00:17:00] and engage you Republican opposition to the lay another big aid package for Ukraine, right?

[00:17:11] Jim Henson: The October 7th attacks in Israel happened then Israel got dropped into this as did Taiwan You know, so, you know, as the bill was being discussed in the last quarter. So at 2023, you know, the story was kind of, you know, the split between the Senate where there were GOP skeptics on this, but more interest, particularly Mitch McConnell.

[00:17:34] Jim Henson: And I think the, the Ukraine piece was a huge part of this, right. And then McConnell is among Republicans, one of the bigger supporters of, of. The U. S. going all in behind Ukraine, or reasonably all in, and continuing to support Ukraine against, uh, in their resistance to the Russian invasion. Um. Um, but all along and this, you know, and that deal actually didn’t [00:18:00] help this is that, you know, it was a non starter among a majority of the GOP house, right?

[00:18:07] Jim Henson: Right. They have their own bill, HR2, which is much more enforcement, weak in the executive branch oriented. Um. So look, there’s been a lot of skepticism about this all along. I mean, I’ve, I’ve always been torn by, you know, we’ve talked about it a few times. We’ve been talking about it too much or not enough, given what the ultimate prospects

[00:18:27] Josh Blank: were.

[00:18:27] Josh Blank: Yeah, I mean, that’s one, the other thing too is, you know, this is one of those moments where it’s like sort of the The politics of it don’t obviously line up very easily in terms of just I think people’s ability to understand what’s going on. I think the way you laid it out there is really kind of perfect in some ways, which is you have a Senate that is, you know, Generally more interested in some of these foreign policy issues than the house and is more willing to devote, you know Financial resources to I think to the foreign policy concerns of the u.

[00:18:51] Josh Blank: s and the administration, right? And again, that’s not uniform. But I mean i’m just saying they have more right? And then that creates, you know, the space to, to, to negotiate over, over an [00:19:00] immigration bill that is really focused on GOP priorities because ultimately you’re trying to bring over the GOP holds outs at the same time.

[00:19:06] Josh Blank: If you’re looking at the house and thinking about how Senate negotiations, the house is kind of sitting there saying, well, you know, our majority party in the house has no interest in Ukraine funding basically for the most part. And we’ve talked about the public opinion of this, uh, and we’ve already passed, you know.

[00:19:20] Josh Blank: Uh, an immigration bill. That’s far, far stricter than anything you’re talking about. So, you know, you can negotiate with us, but the room for negotiation there is really pretty narrow, right? And it’s basically make your immigration bill strict, you know, stricter and strip out all the other stuff. It’s like, well, that’s what actually got this across the finish line

[00:19:37] Jim Henson: in the Senate.

[00:19:37] Jim Henson: Right. I mean, yeah, I mean, the smart money on this has always been. You know, this is just not going to go anywhere in the house. There’s nothing they can really do. That seems still seems to be the smartest bet.

[00:19:47] Josh Blank: It seems to be the smartest bet because the only reason you could see that changing would be, you know, if the politics of this changed such that, you know, the exposure, I mean, this is really what the plan we’re getting kind of getting moving this direction, but the exposure of not passing an [00:20:00] immigration deal that’s put in front of you becomes too big, but it doesn’t look like the current politics are actually creating that kind of exposure, at least in the current moment.

[00:20:10] Josh Blank: You

[00:20:10] Jim Henson: know, and the, and the, you know, I mean, there’s been the class, you know, there’s been the perpetual immigration problem lurking below this and that you’ve got, it’s hard to find something that both, you know, The right wing of the Democrat of the Republican Party and the left wing of the Democratic Party will settle on right, right I mean, that’s just you know that that’s kind of perpetual But you know, however one handicapped it at that point or you know handicaps it on, you know, the merits you know the confirmation of Donald Trump’s, you know inevitability and you know by the results, you know in the results in Iowa and New Hampshire You know Triggered a shift in the public positions of most of many GOP members of Congress.

[00:20:53] Jim Henson: I mean, even, you know, I mean, I think it might have been misreported or it was a little bit. of a problem of [00:21:00] like, you know, when you report something from inside a closed meeting with an anonymous source. I mean, there was a moment last week when it seemed like it was just dead because McConnell in an in house meeting in the Senate had said, Look, the reality here is You know, not to put words in his mouth, but this is the implication, you know, you know, if Donald Trump doesn’t want this, then the politics of this have changed.

[00:21:24] Jim Henson: That was taken as McConnell abandoning ship and the early waves of reporting seem like it’s gotten a little bit more complicated, at least in terms of McConnell’s view. But the underlying reality is that the political math now has changed in obvious ways. If Donald Trump is, as part of becoming the presumptive candidate, is now telling Pete, you know, sending very clear messages that, you know, this, this bill should not be passed.

[00:21:49] Jim Henson: Yeah,

[00:21:49] Josh Blank: and it’s really interesting. I think, you know, you’re sitting here just sort of as an observer of politics and kind of thinking about, like, you’re not saying, oh, this is shocking. Yeah. Oh, you know, the major party presidential [00:22:00] nominee is basically saying, Hey, don’t do anything. It’s going to, you know, that I perceive is going to hurt, you know, my general election campaign at the same time, you know, you’re sort of senior.

[00:22:07] Josh Blank: And I mean, in that part of that kind of behind closed doors, McConnell piece of this, you know, McConnell was, you know, apparently said, look, this is a better deal than we’re going to get under Trump. Now, I think part of that is, is that, you know, Democrats have a desire to negotiate here. They’ve Make a clear willingness to go show on this.

[00:22:21] Josh Blank: If Trump is president, there’s no reason for Democrats negotiate on any

[00:22:24] Jim Henson: of this. I mean, you know, I mean, you know, I think McConnell and, and defenders of the plan are making from a Republican point of view and the pitch to Republicans, you know, is the point we were making a couple of minutes ago. It’s like, look, this has None of the demo, you know, quote unquote, there’s no democratic stuff in here.

[00:22:40] Josh Blank: Yeah. And you’re going to get democratic votes on this. You’re going to move this thing forward. You can get more money than you would get, or you can have a hundred percent opposition the next round. And also, I mean, the other piece that I think, you know, for McConnell, it’s sort of the quiet part that, you know, probably not even saying out loud is, you know, and honestly.

[00:22:54] Josh Blank: Trump is a much less reliable bargaining partner. I mean, the thing about Biden is, I think, you know, you can say what you want about [00:23:00] Biden, people can have all kinds of actions about Biden, but I think when McConnell deals with, with Biden from the Senate, from the perspective of a senator trying to move a bill through, he knows what he’s dealing with and he knows what’s going on.

[00:23:09] Josh Blank: Whereas I think, you know, the last, you know, the Trump presidency shows you is that in Trump, you don’t have a consistent. Ally or leader when it comes to these kind of negotiations, which is a really easy for the stuff to fall apart. And so, you know, so I think both it’s a heavy, strangely enough, it’s a heavier lift under Trump in some ways, at least just in terms of the relationship with the executive branch, but also you’re not going to get as good of a deal and yet.

[00:23:33] Jim Henson: Yeah. And, and what Trump, yeah, what Trump is willing to,

[00:23:36] Josh Blank: and what he even wants. I mean, you know, so that brings us, you know, the politics of this are really what become kind of the central driver now. Right. And

[00:23:43] Jim Henson: I think, you know, this is where we, you know, kind of talk about, look, there’s an interest, you know, the interesting thing here, I think whatever your perspective, and this is being covered, you know, discussed a lot in the political press is the kind of,[00:24:00]

[00:24:00] Jim Henson: you know, the notion that. Did the pressure that Trump is exerting here now and and and the general theory of the case that we’re seeing people following either following Trump’s lead or doing the math on their on themselves is is Dangerously close in some people’s views to you know, the you know, we’re now saying the quiet part out loud, which is yes This is a very good deal for Republicans.

[00:24:26] Jim Henson: No, we’re not going to take it Because it hurts our presidential

[00:24:29] Josh Blank: candidates now, you’re not going to say, why are you holding out for a better deal?

[00:24:33] Jim Henson: It’s like, yeah, there’s no, there’s really, you know, that’s not, I mean, you know, look, the speaker Johnson is saying that, but nobody, but nobody could believe that.

[00:24:43] Jim Henson: Well, nobody thinks that, you know, you know, the, the flip, you know, people know it’s not going to, it’s not going to get through the Senate, even if it gets through the house, which it probably, you know, which it has, um, and this is, you know, house resolution too, but it. You know, I mean, I, I, I think in all fairness, [00:25:00] you know, there’s a little bit of this on both sides, I mean, to be, to be utterly fair, I mean, you know, I mean, Joe Biden saying, you know, I’ll just give me the power and I’ll shut down the border

[00:25:12] Josh Blank: on

[00:25:12] Jim Henson: a Friday night, which is, you know, it’s kind of, you know, it’s another variation of that theme, which is, we all see the politics of this, we all know, you know, I, you know, me saying that is a provocation.

[00:25:29] Jim Henson: You know, but we also know that it’s, it’s, it’s a function of the politics of the moment and, you know, I mean, I, you know, you know, I don’t think anybody ought to just have their hair on fire about in some ways, either one of these is a development, you know, there’s nothing very surprising about this other than, you know, we don’t All that often see all these conditions we spent the last, you know, 15 minutes talking about.

[00:25:54] Jim Henson: It’s a lot of it’s a lot of interesting alignment at once. Yeah, right [00:26:00] to create this moment where both parties are are somewhat exposed. And I don’t mean that in the sense of a false equivalence. I mean.

[00:26:08] Josh Blank: No, but it’s important to say this because I think there’s a, there’s a focus here to say, I mean, look, you know, whether it’s the press, whether it’s whoever, I don’t really care.

[00:26:16] Josh Blank: I mean, but there’s a point here where, you know, I think for a lot of people on the left, a lot of press are saying, Oh, Gotcha, you know, it’s like hey look, you know, you’re being offered this amazing deal and you know faced with this great deal You know, that’s everything you’ve said you’ve wanted like at least in this moment to respond to this moment, you know when Trump says well You know that might not be good for my reelection campaigns.

[00:26:38] Josh Blank: Oh, you know, this isn’t for us We’re gonna pull back now to some extent we’ve been making this argument all along Which is say look, you know, the border is is a is a mobilizing issue for Republicans is incredibly valuable I mean you really have to will kind of come around to this Ask yourself whether it’s, you know, better for Republicans as a party that wants to win elections to just solve the borders problem today, or whether they can hold on to it at the same [00:27:00] time, you know, as much as there’s this kind of, I’m almost, you know, almost gleeful caught you caught you being hypocrites.

[00:27:05] Josh Blank: The reality is when Biden comes out and says, you know, on a Friday night, like I’ll shut down the border. I mean, one, he’s playing into this politics just as much as they are, because it’s kind of ridiculous. But the other piece of it too is an acknowledgement by Biden that like what Democrats are doing on this is not working, right?

[00:27:22] Josh Blank: And it really does also expose the problems that Democrats have within their coalition I mean the fact is, you know, our Democrats gonna have problem, you know Even if the Senate bill were to move forward the fact that there’s no DACA component to it The fact that there’s really none of the things that Democrats have said that they that they care about on the border You know is is pretty notable, but it also is the case.

[00:27:40] Josh Blank: I mean, I think you know something I think Biden is actually doing a pretty I’m going to say a pretty good job of in the moment is acknowledging the fact that like there is no consensus position among Democrats on the border Yeah, I mean and I think that’s kind of important to acknowledge. That’s kind of what’s created the problem That’s what’s created a vacuum It’s part of why it’s such a powerful issue for republicans because the democratic response isn’t You know sort of it isn’t [00:28:00] a known thing because really, you know, it’s like well, you know, we don’t want to say we’re gonna Immediately deport everybody and like we take asylum seekers Seriously.

[00:28:08] Josh Blank: But what if there’s 300, 000 of them? I mean, you know, and Democrats are hemming and hawing about, you know, well, what’s going on in the country, you know, where these people are coming from. And for I think Republicans and for most voters, you know, that’s complicated. I’m not too Republican, but I mean, for most voters, that’s a complicated question.

[00:28:23] Josh Blank: construction

[00:28:24] Jim Henson: of this. Right? Yeah. And I want, you know, when we get to the end, I want to come back to it. I looked up some of this stuff.

[00:28:28] Josh Blank: It’s a lot easier just to say what’s going on at the border.

[00:28:30] Jim Henson: Right. And so, you know, what to me, you know, we’re already sort of edging in, what do we make of the implications of this?

[00:28:36] Jim Henson: And, and, you know, and what do we think about this in terms of the convergence of, you know, What has been, you know, a mainstay of Texas politics now for more than a decade and now that having this, you know, having another moment in the sun, if you will, in, in national politics, I mean, you know, Trump’s hold on the nomination, which is, you know, again, reflective his hold on [00:29:00] the party has dovetailed with an interesting surge in national attention to Greg Abbott’s combative policies on the border and, you know, yet again, raises, you know, the question I, you know, as you were saying earlier of like, You know, what is Abbott doing here, right?

[00:29:17] Jim Henson: And I think, look, on one hand, it’s pretty obvious what he’s doing. On the other hand, it has, you know, Abbott’s Sustained provocation, you know, on this, you know, on, on this one, I think we said in the podcast, you sometimes imagine the Abbott, the Abbott folks kind of sitting around, you know, in a conference room going, well, so what are we going to do next, you know, to like stir the pot on this?

[00:29:42] Jim Henson: What could be most, you know, we’ve You know, we’ve bussed, we’ve, we’ve done buoys, we’ve, you know,

[00:29:48] Josh Blank: Yeah, I want to say, you know, what they’ve done, it’s been so, I mean, I say like, you know, from someone who watches politics for entertainment as well as edification, I mean, one of the things that I think, you know, when you say that, like, they’re sitting around this table thing, what are we gonna do?

[00:29:59] Josh Blank: And I know you’re [00:30:00] joking and you’re fake, you know, but I think the thing that’s been so You know, brilliant. And I’m going to use that word. Yeah, I’m gonna use that word brilliant about the way that they’ve done it is it’s not so much about what they do. It’s about what the response is going to be from the people that they do it to.

[00:30:14] Josh Blank: And they’ve been spot on every time on that. The idea is like, we’re busing, you know, we’re busing, you know, basically migrants to democratic run cities that say they’re open to migration. And you say, well, that’s, that’s a human rights abuse, you know, and it’s like, well, they signed waivers. They said they wanted to go.

[00:30:30] Josh Blank: And then you’ve got these, you know, mayors in New York and Chicago and the other places basically. Yeah. Hey, you know, can you stop doing that? Yeah. I mean, we don’t want them, you know, we don’t know what to do

[00:30:39] Jim Henson: with the, you know, and they, you know, they, they complained to Abbott, but they also complained to the White House.

[00:30:44] Jim Henson: Right. And so that, you know,

[00:30:46] Josh Blank: and same thing we talked about this with the concertina. It’s like, you know, okay, so Texas, whatever case, whatever case the federal government wins, even if the Supreme Court, you know, drags us out for a while, ultimately, it allows the state to say. See, they’re trying to stop us from [00:31:00] securing the border.

[00:31:01] Jim Henson: Right. And so, you know, yeah, so what we’re seeing politically then is, you know, everybody, you know, Republicans, by and large, doubling down on, you know, the ever expanding Operation Lone Star, um, you know, and, and, you know, again, we’ve beat a dead horse in here. Public opinion among the Democratic, among the Republican base gives.

[00:31:24] Jim Henson: an enormous amount of space here and has empowered this, you know, and, and, you know, there’s an interesting, again, I mean, we’ve, for how many years have we talked about, you know, the underlying question about Greg Abbott’s seeming efforts to build his brand nationally, you know, and the, you know, and, and things that, you know, have quietly gone away because you know, they keep being proven wrong.

[00:31:55] Jim Henson: You know, is Greg Abbott going to run for president? Does he want to be vice president? Does he [00:32:00] want to be in the cabinet, you know, this whole thing, you know, when I, you know, it may very well be enough that this is very good politics for Greg Abbott, you know, if he wants to stay where he is and particularly amongst not a lot of evidence other than this profile that.

[00:32:19] Jim Henson: Yeah,

[00:32:22] Josh Blank: I mean, I’ll be honest, though, I mean, up until this moment, I don’t think is his profile ever really justified all of the speculation, right? I mean, I think right now, you know, that’s

[00:32:30] Jim Henson: what we kept saying. And, you know,

[00:32:32] Josh Blank: you know, I mean, yeah, I mean, let alone the fact that there’s been just repeatedly repeated statements of a lack of interest by anyone close to him.

[00:32:39] Josh Blank: But the thing is, is that to the extent that, you know, right now, I mean, I was saying during the, um, You know, kind of leading into this year’s primary election president. I mean, one of the things that, you know, Greg Abbott has that DeSantis doesn’t is a 1, 200 mile border with Mexico. And Abbott has really wrung every political dollar out of that conflict and that, you know, that asset.

[00:32:57] Josh Blank: I think that’s taken him a little while. Yeah. [00:33:00] But, I mean, I think he’s really hit his stride with

[00:33:02] Jim Henson: it now, obviously. And if you think about You know, the long term is funny. You raised the Santas. I mean, what was it a year, year and a half ago? You know, there was all this, you know, there’s this competition between Abbott and DeSantis and you know, who, you know, who was busing migrants first and who’s busing the most and who’s going to come up with the most creative place to ship them.

[00:33:25] Jim Henson: You know, it’s probably been a pretty good week, uh, uh, in the governor’s mansion, you know, after the, you know, the DeSantis, you know, DeSantis. You know, the, you know, the culmination of the slow DeSantis flame out, I guess we should say. And, you know, look, I mean, I, you know, we were You know, small behind the scenes anecdote.

[00:33:45] Jim Henson: I mean, as we were looking at, you know, thinking about some stuff about Texas politics, project business and the website and you know, we saw this little interesting spike in web traffic for, you know, people [00:34:00] downloading the graphic of trends in Greg Abbott’s job approval. Over time in our poll and it was an unmistakable spike now, you know relative to our traffic I mean, we’re not talking, you know, like millions of hits but you know It clearly became like the number one Page for a few days for a few days last week and it’s still kind of hanging in there.

[00:34:19] Jim Henson: I was checking last night It’s declining back to normal But something happened and, you know, we saw that dug into it, saw similar pattern nationally in Google trends, search data for Abbott. So some of this, you can kind of locate. So last week, you know, Trump applauded Abbott on social media. And, and I think in a speech and, you know, some, some people kind of geared up, who knows what happened, there was a.

[00:34:44] Jim Henson: You know, there’s a hashtag that shortly, you know, trended for a little bit within this universe about supporting Abbott

[00:34:50] Josh Blank: or something like this. I mean we talk about this in other contexts, but you know It’s it’s pretty unusual for an out of state politician to have pretty like have high or even approaching high [00:35:00] name id in a State that they’re not in or near or adjacent to.

[00:35:03] Josh Blank: Right. Um, you know, and so I think it would be easy, again, especially for people who listen to this podcast, to, to sort of assume Abbott has a larger national profile, you know, than he, that he might. Right, right. Um, but I think this is the sort of thing that’s interesting here is, you know, despite sort of various efforts to kind of put himself out front on different issues, you know, the, the constellation of, again, the national, you know, this national discussion over immigration.

[00:35:24] Josh Blank: Yeah. The GOP nominating contest, his continued escalation on the border has probably pushed him into a different stratosphere in terms of basically just his overall awareness

[00:35:32] Jim Henson: level. I’m not sure. Yeah, it’s in the stratosphere,

[00:35:35] Josh Blank: but I mean, I don’t, you know, I don’t know, but I mean, it would be interesting to look at, you know, I mean, again, it’s not often that out of state entities are doing, you know, in state polling on out of state politicians.

[00:35:44] Josh Blank: So it’s like, it’s like, you know, it’s not, we’re going to see where Abbott’s sitting in Missouri right now or New Hampshire, New York. But if we did, and if they had done it before, I would be shocked if his name ID hadn’t gone up. Least. So, yeah, dramatically in that, I would say, I’d say dramatically probably.

[00:35:57] Josh Blank: I mean, he’s done, he’s been pretty active. Yeah.

[00:35:59] Jim Henson: I mean he [00:36:00] was, you know, I mean, you know, in a much narrower sense, they were, you know, he, they were, some of the polling entities, including Fox, were putting him in the early presidential heats and he was not moving the needle at all. Yeah. But I mean, to me that’s, no,

[00:36:13] Josh Blank: that’s a different context.

[00:36:14] Josh Blank: Yeah. And that is a question where you’re allowed one choice. Right. You know, and that’s the thing. It’s kind of like the MIP thing. We said, you know, you tell us what’s your most important. It doesn’t mean there aren’t other problems out there. It doesn’t mean there are other, other politicians that you’re interested in.

[00:36:24] Josh Blank: But when we say, what’s the one, you know, yeah, he was going to fall pretty far behind, you know, the people who are actually running, first of all, and Trump. So, so I

[00:36:32] Jim Henson: guess, you know, I mean, uh, you know, to, to, to begin to wind down and speak to the, you know, what, what’s right in front of most people in Texas right now.

[00:36:43] Jim Henson: Anybody, people likely to be listening to this is like, you know, so if Abbott is getting this boost one way or the other, and we have, you know, I think confirmed this general point that, you know, his track record and our polling suggests that there’s just not much that Abbott can, Abbott can do in terms of enforcement [00:37:00] and punitive measures that isn’t helpful to him with the Republican base, certainly in Texas, and you’re kind of implying, you know, it’s getting him some national play.

[00:37:09] Jim Henson: But, you know, how does this play into what people are really You know, focusing on right now, which is, you know, the legislative primaries underway, particularly on the Republican side, where Abbott has been, you know, very active.

[00:37:23] Josh Blank: Yeah, I mean, you know, there was something in, in, you know, quorum report this week about, uh, you know, Abbott basically trying to, or Abbott’s, campaign entities, I want to say Abbott in particular, I have to go and look at the ads, but basically Abbott aligned forces or money is basically trying to paint voucher opponents and Republican primaries is essentially anti public education because they didn’t support the voucher bill, which also included a bunch of other stuff that ultimately was not going anywhere anyway.

[00:37:46] Josh Blank: And so there’s sort of, you know, some, some sour grapes about that. Now, I think going into this, you know, we’ve sort of been asking this question, I think it’s still as an open question is how much, you know, how much. Push does Abbott have, you know, in his primaries now, he obviously has the financial, the ability financially to [00:38:00] do kind of what he wants, but ultimately that’s different than saying, you know, doesn’t matter if I’m going to voter and I would say in this moment, I mean, this probably breaks really well for him because right now he’s sitting here kind of at the center of the center, but pretty close to the center of this national discussion over immigration policy.

[00:38:17] Josh Blank: He’s got, you know, a signed letter from, you know, basically all the other Republican, you know, governors essentially supporting his efforts at the border. Uh, you know, he’s raised the issues profile, he’s raised his own profile and, and that’s the context now in which he’s going to these, you know, primary elections and saying, Hey, You know, you should support X over Y or this, you know, this is, you know, I’m supporting this challenger, you know, that really, you know, honestly, like I was skeptical about, you know, the likelihood of Abbott really having that much impact, but in the moment as a shorthand, I mean, he’s sort of, he is, he is, you know, in a prime position on the number one issue for most Republican primary voters and most Republican voters, right?

[00:38:54] Josh Blank: So, I mean, you’d think that this is a pretty good spot for him to be in if this is what he wants, right?

[00:38:59] Jim Henson: I mean, you know, [00:39:00] as I think it through it’s You know, it enhances his political heft and his political capital when he appears for some of these folks, you know, he’s going to spend the money. He’s going to spend that wasn’t not going to hurt, right?

[00:39:18] Jim Henson: You know, so there’s an, you know, there’s a, there’s a certain indirectness to this. That’s very interesting, you know, in that, you know, his political capital comes not from, you know, the issue that he’s really seems to be motivating him, but, you know, it doesn’t really matter. Well, no, that’s right. I guess at the end of the day.

[00:39:36] Jim Henson: Yeah. Yeah.

[00:39:36] Josh Blank: No, but I like, but

[00:39:37] Jim Henson: it’s good or matters, you know, not so much,

[00:39:40] Josh Blank: but it’s going to be fine. I mean, you know, it’s interesting. It’ll be interesting to see, let’s say Abbott’s really successful in clearing out, you know, voucher opponents in the, in the Republican primaries. You know, it’s going to be interesting to come back around again, you know, in 2025 and assume vouchers is on, on the, uh, is, is on, is on the call, is on the emergency items.

[00:39:57] Josh Blank: Right. So they can get going right away. And he’s going to say, look. [00:40:00] Republican voters were clear they wanted vouchers and it’s like, and we’re going to be sitting here on the podcast kind of sheepishly raising our hands going well,

[00:40:07] Jim Henson: you know, only sort of definitely liked, you know, yeah, busing migrants to

[00:40:13] Josh Blank: New York, definitely liked all the concertina wire, you

[00:40:16] Jim Henson: know, yeah, you know, I mean, and I guess if we’re going to drill down and there’s also like, I think that it, you know, the visibility of this fight and Okay.

[00:40:25] Jim Henson: the skirmishes between Texas and the national government, you know, has also allowed the other kind of external force in these primaries, Ken Paxton, to get his name in the news on subjects that, you know, don’t include the terms indictment or whistleblower. Right. You know, in other words, you know, he’s, You know, the face of the, the state’s legal resistance to the, to the federal government and, you know, that gives him plenty of opportunities to associate his name with something else that is, you know, much more positive or at [00:41:00] least less ambiguous.

[00:41:01] Jim Henson: He doesn’t have to, you know, he kind of has had to make the case that. The impeachment made you not a conservative if you, if you supported his impeachment, he doesn’t have to make the case that taking the fight to Washington, D. C. on border security and immigration is the conservative Republican thing to do.

[00:41:22] Jim Henson: Well, that’s and it’s, you know, it’s, it’s helpful to him. I don’t know in some definitive sense, but as he’s traveling around the state looking for talking points and looking to not talk about. And sort of put some distance between him and the legal difficulties, particularly given his about face that we talked about last week on on the whistleblower case, you know, pretty good break for him to again.

[00:41:45] Jim Henson: I don’t want to say it’s, you know, solves his problems, but in the short term.

[00:41:49] Josh Blank: Pretty helpful. Well, I mean, you know, it’s like, you know, the about face, the context of the about faces, he tried to claim it was essentially, Hey, look, I’ve got more important stuff to do. And I mean, the number one thing on that list is going to be challenging the [00:42:00] Biden administration on border issues.

[00:42:01] Josh Blank: Right. Right. And so that’s the thing, to the extent that anyone is going to ask, you know, Ken Paxson about whistleblowers or about, you know, that ongoing case or, or, you know, other issues, you know, proper undisclosed properties that you say, look, you know, I’m focused on the border. And honestly, that answer is.

[00:42:16] Josh Blank: It was pretty much good

[00:42:16] Jim Henson: enough. Yeah, you know, I mean, pretty good for Republican primary voters. That’s for sure. But

[00:42:21] Josh Blank: it is funny though, just to say, I mean, we’re saying, I mean, just because you made this point, I would just want to sit on it for one second. It was, it is funny to think that, you know, leading to these primaries where they, you know, where it’s like, okay, is Abbott going to be able to mobilize on the voucher issue?

[00:42:31] Josh Blank: Is Paxson going to be able to, uh. Uh, you know, mobilize on the impeachment is a, is a measure of conservatism and we’ve been saying all along, you know, kind of leading through the trials, like, yeah, but you know, that’s why, that’s why the borders on the call, you know, that’s why, that’s why they’re, the things that are going to pass are going to be these things that they can lean back on.

[00:42:47] Josh Blank: And it’s, it’s amazing that even before we’re really getting into the final heat of the primary, it’s already kind of shifted back to immigration. Right. I mean, there are almost both of those guys are almost already just gonna lean on immigration, you know, really [00:43:00] as The issue that sort of is their power base,

[00:43:04] Jim Henson: you know, and I you know, I mean you’ve talked about this a bit I don’t want you know, I want to raise this, you know I mean it kind of re raises the question that you know has come up with this Particularly the Republicans all along and that is you know, people want to address the border problem.

[00:43:19] Jim Henson: Do they really want to solve it? You know

[00:43:23] Josh Blank: Yeah, you know It’s tough. I go back and forth between, you know, being totally, um, you know, maybe cynical, you know, on one hand and saying, no, you know, the politics of the issue are too good for Republicans and well, the dynamic we were talking about,

[00:43:37] Jim Henson: they’re too difficult for Democrats.

[00:43:38] Jim Henson: Yeah, I mean, the dynamic we were talking about before where, you know, Republicans are standing up saying, yeah, we can’t solve this problem right now. Yeah, right, sort of, you know, does lean and push one in that direction. And, but I do

[00:43:51] Josh Blank: want to be fair because I mean, I have that sort of cynical response. The other piece of it is that, you know, the politics of it also, you know, make solving it more difficult and not [00:44:00] just because of it’s like, you know, who, you know, if, if we come to something, do you gained and do I lose because of that?

[00:44:05] Josh Blank: But it’s also about, you know, the conceptualization of the problem, right? You know, and we’ve talked about this before, but, you know, Republicans really focus on immigration and the border. And border security, but really what they’re focused on is the border, you know, we’re not really talking about what’s going on in Venezuela.

[00:44:21] Josh Blank: We’re not talking about what’s going on in Honduras. We’re not talking about why anybody’s leaving any of these places or whether it’s a valid reason, you know, what we could do with, you know, international agreements, all kinds of stuff kind of leading up to this point. It’s sort of like, what if we build a wall and put barbed wire and more guns there?

[00:44:37] Josh Blank: And it’s like, yeah, I mean, I And that’s a conceptualization of the issue. I’m not saying, you know, I’m not even saying whether it’s wrong. Right. I’m just saying, but if you, if your thought is, is the 1200 mile border is where the action is, you’re going to come to a different set of solutions in terms of solving the problem than if we think about all this stuff you talked about the beginning, you know, the legal pathways of citizenship, you know, the asylum process, what border security looks like, what deportation looks like, what, whether [00:45:00] and what there’s a pathway to citizenship, et cetera.

[00:45:02] Josh Blank: You know, who’s accepted from these. These are all, you know, there’s a lot of negotiations that go into all that. Um, and so, you know, I would say there is that aspect of it, but it does, you know, just in the, in the politics of right now, setting all that aside, it doesn’t really seem like anybody wants really has the will to solve it.

[00:45:18] Josh Blank: Right. I mean, I think Biden’s willingness to close the border, whether you take it serious or not. You know, is probably a response to the fact that there’s a pretty clear argument. The Democrats would be a lot better off if the border were less of an issue, right? It’s just not an issue they went on, but the ideological politics within the Democratic Party make this pretty challenging.

[00:45:34] Josh Blank: I mean, you know, you’ve got, you know, I mean, as I said before, you know, what is the central tendency of Democrats on the on immigration? The board is like, I don’t know. I mean, it kind of depends on who you’re talking about. In Texas, we saw, you know, Colin Allred joining with with mostly Republicans and some Democrats from Texas, you know, in a statement basically, uh, You know, I would say criticizing Biden’s handling of the border, you know, already was quick to caveat that and say, well, you know, whatever,

[00:45:58] Jim Henson: which led to, you know, [00:46:00] an exchange about, you know, you know, that cuts to the core of how all red is defining himself versus how, you know, his, his main opponent, Roland Gutierrez is defining himself, you know, in this past week, also in the news, you know, they, during their appearances in which, you know, all red’s position was, right.

[00:46:22] Jim Henson: You know, of course, vilified by Roland Gutierrez is the essence of like, what’s wrong, you know, with Democrats and, and brought that fundamental cleavage in the Democratic Party out. Right. And, and, you know, Gutierrez is, you know, is in a good shape to engage this conversation, given his background. I mean, he knows the policy, he’s from the border area.

[00:46:43] Jim Henson: represents, you know, so, um, but that doesn’t get you any, I mean, I mean, not that that gets us anywhere, but it does show that those, you know, as you were saying, those politics are bubbling under and, you know, and, and problematic when they arise in the democratic party as well. [00:47:00] And, you know, I mean, we’re seeing this at the national level.

[00:47:03] Jim Henson: You know, Alex Padilla was quoted in Politico this morning, you know, quote, I’m absolutely disappointed, you know, and talking about Biden, it’s very different than the pledges and the promises he made as a candidate for president in 2020. So disappointed. Right. And, you know, again, whatever you make of that, it does underline, you know, the, that, that aspect of the issue.

[00:47:27] Josh Blank: Right. And so, you know, for Democrats, this is kind of just a perpetual loser. You know, and in truth is, I mean, I think actually, Biden has probably made more progress on democratic messaging in the last week on the border than I think we’ve seen in the last few years, honestly, now. Now, the thing is, so we were talking about the right a lot, but the situation is completely different on the right where, you know, when we look at polling, um, Republican voters are uniformly ready to support almost anything that might improve the situation, I’m saying, as they see it, which is really focused on, on the border.

[00:47:55] Josh Blank: Yet, you know, Trump has made clear that, you know, basically we’re not moving forward, you know, with a Senate bill, [00:48:00] uh, you know, and even as, you know, I think this raises the question, you know, for me that I’m sort of trying to struggle with, but, you know, and I think it actually hits back to something earlier that you said earlier, thinking about.

[00:48:10] Josh Blank: You know, Biden’s sort of willingness to close the border and sort of the Republican response to that. But the question that I sort of keep thinking about is, you know, what could Democrats, what could Biden offer or say they would do where Texas would stand down and say, oh, okay, and there’s nothing and it kind of goes back to the whole, you know, sort of like, well, Biden says he’s going to shut the border down.

[00:48:29] Josh Blank: And if you think about the response of most, you know, Republican senators, Republican legislators, Republican voters be like. Yeah, right. And there’s just like, we don’t believe that that’s going to happen. But this is the problem though. Right? I mean, ultimately, you do need to have some set of demands or a solution where the federal government where Biden said, you know, give me your list of demands, Greg Abbott, what do you want to see me do?

[00:48:49] Josh Blank: Which again, super problematic, you know, system, whatever, let’s set out of the side, you know, what would that list look like? And let’s say, you know, you take the things that are realistically possible on that list, you know, and let’s say the [00:49:00] Biden administration, we’re gonna do all those things tomorrow.

[00:49:02] Josh Blank: Yeah. Right. Let Democratic AG sue us for whatever is, is all of a sudden, is Abbott going to withdraw DPS from the border? I don’t think so. You know, is the state going to all of a sudden say, you know what, let’s claw back all that money We’ve, you know, put into Operation Lone Star. I don’t think so, but it raises the question.

[00:49:18] Josh Blank: What’s the off ramp here? I mean,

[00:49:19] Jim Henson: I think, you know, part of the question here is, you know, on one hand, you know We posted is does anybody want to solve the border, but solve this issue? Yeah, and how, you know You know the interesting politics are, you know The Democrats, you know, Biden, Biden anyway, obviously seems more than willing to do something to try to move it off the table, whether it’s solving or not.

[00:49:41] Jim Henson: But it’s also the question of how solvable is this, right? And look, in the short term, you know, I, I don’t, you know, you can make the problem look different. But I don’t think you’re gonna, none of this is going to solve this in the next year. Yeah,

[00:49:59] Josh Blank: and I [00:50:00] think a good example, and this is where, you know, They could give them the money today.

[00:50:02] Josh Blank: Well, this is where I think Texas is a great example, right? You know, we’ve got, you know, in Texas, this has been the perpetual number one issue for the majority party. The state has Continuously and session after session devoted more and more resources and significantly more dollars to the border. And when we ask, and you know, are we spending enough on immigration and border security?

[00:50:23] Josh Blank: And overwhelmingly two thirds of Republicans continue to say no, despite the increases in spending, because ultimately, you know, I didn’t say why. And I mean, you know, I think we’d have to speculate on the why of this, but I think the, the pattern and the attitudes in response to this tells you something, which is that even were they to come along and actually act.

[00:50:41] Josh Blank: You know, have some huge, uh, bill that puts a bunch more money towards the border. I don’t suspect that tomorrow or next week or in a month, you know, Republican voters are gonna say, well, glad that’s solved. What

[00:50:51] Jim Henson: now? Well, and there’s no, you know, I mean, you know, and I, but I think there’s two reasons for that again, because I, there would be no evidence before their eyes that it was as well.

[00:50:59] Jim Henson: There would definitely [00:51:00] be no evidence of it. You know, but also you’re right. I mean, the underlying attitudes, I mean, before we can. You know, I was going back and digging out some of the data that we always dig out, but I looked at it, you know, I looked at the most recent results on what we call in our, you know, in our, in our internal lingo, the immediate deportation question, which is a question that we talked about.

[00:51:22] Jim Henson: It’s kind of our. You know, you were talking about underlying attitudes, it’s one of our underlying attitude heat checks where you just say, you agree or disagree, you know, anybody in the country with any undocumented person in the country should be deported immediately. And there’s no, and you know, you go back to when I think one of the first times we asked that, which was in mid 2014, and then you go back to the last time we asked it in August of 23.

[00:51:52] Jim Henson: And it’s hard not to look at the, the views of the issue and it’s sort of evergreen [00:52:00] quality as embedded in how fixed those numbers are. I mean, overall in 2014, it was 54 agree with immediate deportation, 40 disagree. In August of 23, it was 54, 38. Yep. You know, Republican agreement has increased from about three quarters to a little more than four fifths.

[00:52:25] Jim Henson: So in, in 2014, it was 74 agree, 23 disagree in December, in August of last year, it was 83, 15. Right. Now that’s moved a little bit, but so is the democratic number. Right. Right. So the democratic numbers in 2014 were nearly a third agreed, 32 percent, 60 percent disagreed. In August, they, it was 27 agree, 67, 63 percent disagree, but that 20, but that agreement number [00:53:00] has, you know, if you look across all of those results and we’ve asked this question 10 or 12 times now.

[00:53:06] Jim Henson: You know, doesn’t get much lower than about, doesn’t get any lower than about a fifth of Democrats and gets as high, even a little higher than a third, right? And I mean, you know, when you and then, and then true independence have not moved like 56, 37 in 2014, 55, 33 in August of 23, you know,

[00:53:25] Josh Blank: and again, not to be cynical, but you look at those numbers and say, well, doesn’t that tell you everything you need to know, right?

[00:53:30] Josh Blank: I mean, if I’m in a lead and I’m trying to position myself, I realized this is evergreen. We can keep spending money on this. We can keep politicking on this. On the one hand, we put the other party in a tough position because they’re going to have to either take a position that 60 percent or 30 percent of their voters are a little bit, you know, either uncomfortable with or disagree with.

[00:53:48] Josh Blank: Yeah, right. Uh, you know, I mean, I hate to be like, you know, this sort of, you know, cynical or whatever politics guy, but it’s like, why would you move this issue off the table? [00:54:00] And I mean, and that’s the thing. I mean, it’s sort of, you know, watching the last week and thinking about, you know, again, sort of the idea of, you know, someone like Mitch McConnell kind of trying to push for this bill cause he actually wants to move something.

[00:54:10] Josh Blank: Cause he’s probably looking at his own legacy at

[00:54:13] Jim Henson: this point. I think Mitch McConnell really wanted that Ukraine bill. And I think he also does look at this and think. You know, I’ve been here a long time. This is the best immigration deal I’ve seen for Republicans that has any, you know, that’s moving at all, right.

[00:54:27] Jim Henson: That I’ve

[00:54:28] Josh Blank: seen. Yeah. But if your consideration is, you know, policy outcomes, great. If your consideration is next election, different calculation, right. You know?

[00:54:38] Jim Henson: Well, and I think, you know, even, you know, with McConnell, I mean, you know, look, I think if you’re a Republican, that’s not named Trump, you know, you could argue that in strict policy terms.

[00:54:49] Jim Henson: And I think, you know, that’s what’s. That’s what’s sort of exposing a lot of what we’re talking about, you know, setting aside the reality of its chances [00:55:00] of patenting. It’s a pretty good deal for Republicans. For sure, you know in terms of what you could go even these voters here that we’re talking about Yeah, they may be they may damn you with faint praise Yeah, but you know, it’s it’s not a bad deal for them in that you can say look We made it harder to get in the country We made it easier to throttle the movement of people at the border in legal ways

[00:55:26] Josh Blank: um We’re going to get people through asylum, you know, processing faster, much, much faster.

[00:55:32] Josh Blank: So,

[00:55:32] Jim Henson: you know, I mean, so it’s hard for me, you know, to kind of wind up to not. not see the ultimate constraints are dwelling in kind of two related pieces, right? One, these underlying attitudes. Yeah. I just sort of summarize that are just remarkably stable across time and point Republicans as you were, you know, sort of laying out in an obvious political direction.

[00:55:59] Jim Henson: And then the other [00:56:00] piece, you know, the degree to which, you know, Donald Trump’s brand in the party, his power in the party, his power with the base is plugged directly into those attitudes. And so, you know, it makes even the, you know, the kind of quote unquote, this is a good policy win, as we are suggesting, or you can make the argument just doesn’t, you know, just, just we’re not, we’re not all these things we’ve talked about our inner, you know, our, our sort of converging in a way that both creates the opportunities for this deal.

[00:56:36] Jim Henson: And for this deal to move a little further than we’ve seen before, but at the same time makes it highly unlikely that it’s going to

[00:56:42] Josh Blank: go all the way. Yeah, I mean, as you’re saying that, all I’m thinking is, you know, all it really takes, even if, even if Republicans in, in the Congress has said, you know what, this is a great deal, all it would take is for Trump to say they’re caving to Biden.

[00:56:54] Josh Blank: Right, well, that’s, you know, Which is what he said. And that’s, and that’s all it takes. And that’s the end of that, right? Yeah, and, [00:57:00] and, It doesn’t matter what the bill does.

[00:57:04] Jim Henson: Yeah, and if you imagine another world that, you know, that’s like, it’s not like a null set. It’s not reality, where Trump said, you know what, this is a good start, and when I get elected, we’re gonna do much more.

[00:57:15] Jim Henson: But for now, you know, as we all know, the border, you know, we’re being invaded, you know, even if this is just sticking a finger in the dyke, it’s okay. Yeah. Um, now, it would probably hurt my head if Donald Trump actually said that. Yeah, I was gonna say, man. But, um, You know, but it’s not the convergence of these things I was talking about.

[00:57:38] Jim Henson: It’s just unimaginable giving Trump’s political position. So with that, um, We’ll wind it up there. Thanks, Josh, for a good conversation. Thanks to our excellent production team in the Dev Studio in the College of Liberal Arts at UT Austin. Uh, the data we talked about, particularly that deportation data, you’ll find at, uh, the response to that deportation [00:58:00] question.

[00:58:00] Jim Henson: Uh, you will find at texaspolitics. utexas. edu. Uh, thanks for listening, and we’ll be back soon with another Second Reading podcast.

[00:58:14] Jim Henson: The Second Reading podcast. is a production of the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin.