December 10th, 2021 – Second Reading Podcast

Welcome to the Second Reading Podcast from the University of Texas at Austin,

the Republicans were in the democratic party because there was only one part. So I tell people on a regular basis, there is still a land of opportunity in america. It’s called Texas.

The problem is these departures from the constitution, they have become the norm.

At what point, must a female Senator raise her hand or her voice to be recognized. Over the male colleagues in the room.

Jim Henson: And welcome back to the second reading podcast. I’m Jim Henson, director of the Texas politics project at the university of Texas at Austin. Joined again today by Josh blank research director for the Texas politics project.

Welcome back, Josh. Thanks for having me. Well, it’s my pleasure to be here again in the studio with Josh, uh, on the campus of UT Austin. Um, we’ve been on hiatus for a couple of weeks. I think hiatus is, I’ve always liked like hiatus because it’s so non explanatory,

Josh Blank: but it sounds like it’s a fun, like the hi-jinks may have ,

Jim Henson: you know, on purpose and kind of vaguely Latin terms.

Um, so we’ve been on hiatus for a couple of weeks to the holidays and to the semester, uh, little travel inevitable. This is all altered everyone’s schedules, but we’re back this week. Um, and we thought being back this week, we’d look at some of the more interesting Texas 20, 22 races, how they’re shaping up as, as 2021 limps to an end.

And by limp, I mean, this is like end of the Terminator limp. I mean, like missing an arm, missing a leg dragging through it. I remember when 2021. Yeah. It’s like, woo. This is some glad 2020s over. Uh, we’re going to hear a lot of that, I think in the next two weeks. So we won’t, we won’t belabor that. Um, let’s start in the middle of the ticket and talk a little bit about the Texas attorney general racing.

You and I have been talking about this offline a bit. Many people. I mean, this, this race has been an interesting for a while as a result of the perceived vulnerability of incumbent Republican Ken packs, then I want to want to put a pin on perceived vulnerability. Cause we should come back to that. Um, but Paxton from the, you know, early on drew, uh, a crowded field of fairly interesting challenges, right?

Okay.

Josh Blank: Yeah. I mean, I think, you know, part of the attention to this in some senses is, is a reflection of the field too, right? I mean, part of you already raised, which is there’s this perceived vulnerability, which we’ll come back to. And then I think, you know, the other reason is obviously generating a lot of attention is that there are three.

You know, there have been three we’ll say throughout, you know, and I mean, what I always want to say well-known candidates, but that’s not true because they’re not well-known, but let’s say they’re interesting. Yeah. I mean, this is the issue, right? This is why it’s interesting. He said, well, is it three formidable candidates?

It’s like, well, you know, I’m not sure about that. And it’s like, well, we would say it’s three candidates who have electoral experience. Right? Know? And that’s, I think that’s the important thing. Here is you have three candidates who, you know, Two Ks have run statewide, have raised money. Well, actually, you know, and in the case of now, representative Gohmert have, has his own sort of, you know, I would say following and brand within the GOP and the state.

So that’s, you know, so there’s definitely reason to pay attention. At the same time. It’s, you know, it’s sort of like, it’s a lot of, there’s a lot of ifs lens kind of pieces to this that are sort of hard to suss out. And it’s, it’s interesting. I mean, I think both of us have talked to a lot of reporters about this race and I’d almost say, I would almost say surprisingly, but not.

So once I just said that the arts is like, this is a very interesting race on its face, but it’s actually a lot more interesting for other reasons, probably. Right.

Jim Henson: So just to get it clear. So we’ve got former Texas Supreme court justice of a Guzman. Land commissioner George P. Bush. And now Congressman Louie Gohmert, who I think is not filed yet though.

She may never, I mean that she might not. The filing deadline is Monday. We’re recording this on Thursday before the filing deadline of. Um, and we had briefly, uh, Matt Kraus, uh, current state legislator, not running for reelection. Um, and then Gomer got in and cross got out

Josh Blank: to run a for, I think the

county

Jim Henson: attorney county attorney.

Yeah, I think that’s right. So, so what did you, so you said, you know, this is like, it’s interesting on the face of it for all the reasons you were laying out. I mean, at least for people that follow politics, people know who have a Guzman is people know who George P. Bush is, obviously George P. Bush has been.

You know a character. Now, if, if only a supporting character in Texas politics for awhile, son of Jeb Bush, um, for a long, for a while, seen as a potential new face of the Republican party in Texas, um, that’s become complicated. Shall we say. Yeah. And so, you know, there is a sense that this is not, you know, as you were saying, like, it’s interesting, it’s not, it’s competitive, is it not?

Is it, you know, or it’s interesting, more interesting for this or that reason? I mean, I think one of the things we have to do have to step back and look is that, you know, we haven’t had. Very many repo, competitive Republican primaries in the last couple of cycles. Right. You know, little bit here and a little glimmers here and there, but certainly statewide.

There’s just not been a lot. That’s gone on really since

Josh Blank: 2014. I was gonna say the closest I can think of is. You know, winning that primary against do Hurst and staples and Patterson.

Jim Henson: Yeah. Yeah. And there was, yeah. And there was there, and there was a bit of competition that comptroller’s race was competitive that year.

I mean, 2014 was there was some business going on. There were some open off, you know, there were open and there was an open office at the gov.

Josh Blank: Right. I mean the open office made for some shifting, whereas this is, you know, I mean, I mean, let’s take this. I’m like, well, why is this less interesting than it appears?

Let me just set up for it. So real quick, the case for that is that, you know, Paxton’s uh, job approval among Republicans basically sits in the same place is as Dan Patrick’s for the most part, which, which

Jim Henson: has a

Josh Blank: mid sixties, mid high sixties, 65% approve of the job Paxton’s doing among Republicans, 12 dis approved, you know, Patrick, who we’re not talking about at all.

Cause we assume he’s perfectly safe since it’s 67 approved nine disapprove. So it’s not as though there’s like a wellspring of dissatisfaction with compaxone. And the other piece I think about this as important is that, you know, Ken Paxton has spent. You know, since, before going to the attorney General’s office really cultivating a brand in a relationship with activated constituencies in the Republican primary.

And ultimately he doesn’t really look as vulnerable as I think the context around which we’re looking at the race makes it appear, but this is where it gets kind of interesting. Right. So. You think about that to me, I think about Bush and Guzman in some ways, like a kind of like the institutional lane, there seems to be kind of two lanes, right?

There’s the institutional lane. And then there’s the more familiar right lane, you know, basically who can be, who is the most conservative. And ultimately Ken Paxton has been pretty conservative as attorney general. We, I don’t know, we haven’t talked about this in a long time, but just. I think just to throw that out there, this is something the tenant train trunk gets to do, right?

I mean, for the most part, they get to choose when they’re going to file suit, they put out press releases. They have a lot of ability to select the issues that they want to emphasize. And Paxton like avid before him has done this really well to advance search, I think his political brand. So the, you know, if anything, the, you know, if I take it all at face value, sort of the, the CRAs jumping in the race, kind of as the, you know, the quote unquote, true conservative and then Gomer jumping in and him jumping.

On its face kind of says how small that lane probably is to begin with.

Jim Henson: Well, you know, yeah. Well, you know, the lane itself is reasonably large, but Paxton is occupying

Josh Blank: it. Yeah. Right. How much room there is, how many lanes are on the highway? There’s not much, there’s a shoulder over here.

Jim Henson: And just, you know, I mean, just not that anybody listening to this doesn’t know this, but just, you know, just to set the background and also, you know, Ken Paxton has been under indictment, um, first for some, you know, tax and business practice issues.

And now

Josh Blank: she’s with, you know, at the sec and

Jim Henson: filing right now is involved in, you know, some legal issues that have to do with people that worked with him, who filed complaints about how he had handled the job. Shall we say, well, I

Josh Blank: think that’s a very generous way to describe a generous guy, but I mean, but this is, but this is the issue here, actually.

I mean, some to some extent, I mean, this is where it gets more interesting to me. I don’t think that PacSun per se is in trouble in this primary. And the main reason is bushes. The most well-known opponent of his and Republicans and conservative Republicans are split on him. 34% have a favorable view, 28% have an unfavorable view.

Those who described themselves as extremely conservative he’s underwater 28, have a favorable view, 39 have an unfavorable view. We could go into a whole speculation as wise, as you know, is it the Alamo? Is it Dan? Patrick? Is it the Bush brand? It’s not really the point here, but the point is to say he’s not as formidable as he looks almost certainly all of the above.

Yeah. And Guzman is largely unknown to most candidates. So what’s interesting to me about this is when do when and how strongly do Bush and Guzman make the case that look, you know, The attorney general might be a liability in the general election if the FBI investigation advances to a certain point between now and next November.

But I don’t think that that necessarily hurts him in this primary. The thing is, is if they’re aggressive about it, it becomes part of the campaign against.

Jim Henson: I mean, you know, we should also mention, so, you know, you were talking about public opinion and, and the reads of that. And in the, you know, we, we did a trial ballot in October, which, you know, we wouldn’t, I wouldn’t read very much into, at this point.

And PacSun was at what? 48? 49.

Josh Blank: Yeah. I mean, he was at 48%. He was at 57% among strong Republicans. He’s at 66% among those who say they’re extremely conservative.

Jim Henson: Yeah. I mean, it suggests that, I mean, you know, he’s played this, I mean, you know, less, we forget. I mean, he was under indictment last time he ran in one.

Josh Blank: But it was a close race. I mean, I think there, you know, there’s an institutional reason why

Jim Henson: he’s attracting more challengers.

Josh Blank: Right. But ultimately I think, you know, neither, neither challenger has been super aggressive at this point. It seems to me about, you know, raising the issues that they’re really concerned about.

And I’m not sure if they’re going to,

Jim Henson: well, the other piece of this that’s interesting going into a primary is that there’s been some, you know, some divisions in, you know, the traditionally relatively unified entry. Community. And that Texans for lawsuit reform has endorsed Guzman. Yeah. Which, you know, raised a lot eyebrows and suggested that there is some at least perception of vulnerability there.

Um, and that’s, I think that, you know, that also has to be baked into this. I mean, we’re in a, where to kind of shadow campaign stage right now where there’s a lot of, um, you know, there’s a lot of active seeking of endorsements.

Josh Blank: Yeah. I mean, I still think a lot would have to app and done see packs. And I think the question really is just how much damage is done to him.

In addition to what else is out there before he goes into the general. Cause you know, just Nelson ran a pretty formidable campaign with the, you know, against packs. And last time with the whole premise being to say indicted attorney general, and now it becomes indicted under FBI investigation, attorney general, and people already heard the other one.

So I mean, this is, you know, Creates an issue.

Jim Henson: Well, I mean, let me say this, you, you, I mean, you seem like, you know, you’re, you’re sort of saying that you don’t think, I mean, but I mean, how much trouble does he have to be in with this many people in the field running theoretically, at least legit campaigns with some resources, which I think Guzman and Bush and probably Gohmert will have, uh, to get in to, to not make 50%.

I mean, that’s obviously the game

Josh Blank: here. That’s the big. Yeah. I mean, we’ll see, I

Jim Henson: think that’s a, you know, that’s a trickier

Josh Blank: position. Well, may I guess the question? Well, here’s a question for you. I mean, you know, do you think, well, let me ask you, I mean, do you think that he’s more in trouble in this primary or in the general?

Jim Henson: Oh, I think he’s almost certainly more in trouble in the primary, but

Josh Blank: that’s but you think it’s a lot of trouble, um,

Jim Henson: I think it’s enough trouble that they’ve got to try pretty hard. Yeah. You know, I mean, I don’t think, you know, I mean, I don’t think when it’s the last. Ken Paxton had to try and a primary, probably never even going back to when he was in the Senate. I mean, I, you know, trouble is a big word, but I mean, I think that they, you know, they are not in a position of being able to assume that they’re going to get out of the primary without a runoff.

We’ll see, I mean, there’s just too, I mean, I just think there’s too many candidates into that doesn’t mean that they can’t make it happen if they can’t push somebody out of the race

Josh Blank: or, uh, you know, I, here’s why I’m skeptical and color to be skeptical just because it’s the same reason we’re not talking about any other race.

In some ways or why we’re talking to so few other races is because, you know, the perception is that there’s this strong set of candidates. And part of it is, will relative to what, and it’s like, well, relative to, you know, if we say Lee Merritt and Joan horsey on the democratic side, who nobody knows, right.

And it’s going to be a struggle for them from now until November to become known to people. Right. And I look at, you know, basically PACS and say, yeah, there’s some people that insiders definitely now. And obviously the interest view you, you know, group universe is moving around and kind of thinking about the longterm.

But I think for most, you know, sort of Republican primary, there’s two things. One, you know, Ken Paxton is one of the good guys among that group. Yeah. You know, it’s like, it’s like not only, you know, is he good with Trump? He was at the January six rally. I mean, nobody can like, you know, express their point fives more in some really weird twisted way.

Right.

Jim Henson: I’m trying to think of a good comparison comparative analogy to using your presence at the January six rally as a bonus. But I don’t

Josh Blank: know. I was thinking, I was thinking about this this morning. I don’t want to be too flipped with that. Well, I mean, just in a it risk of being too flip, I was thinking this morning about if Gohmert became the main sort of antagonist and the idea of, you know, Ken packs and saying, Hey.

You were on the wrong side of that rally, right? Cause you were, you were on the inside, right? I mean like, so I mean, you know,

Jim Henson: who knows? I, I guess, I guess, I guess I agree with all of that. I just think numbers wise there’s a matter of incentives. I mean, I think if you’re Guzman, you’re Bush and if, and especially if there’s a fourth candidate, if Gohmert does in fact file for the race.

You know, the threshold is just dramatically lowered for all of them. Right. And for all of them, for all of the challengers, I mean, what you’re doing is you’re competing for

Josh Blank: yeah. You’re trying to get 20% and you want to get that if you get

Jim Henson: 20% you’re yeah, you’re probably okay. Right, right. So I, you know, I’m skeptical, you know, I mean, I, I don’t think it’s a sure thing, but I think.

You know, it’s again, it’s a classic damning with faint praise. I don’t think any of them have to do very much. All of all, three of them just have to do enough to push it into a runoff. And then. You know, now then, you know, the conventional wisdom, if you’re an incumbent that gets pushed into runoff, you’re at a pretty serious disadvantage.

Right. And you know, the conventional wisdom is, you know, often, you know, more of the former than the latter. But, I mean, I, you know, I, it will be the story that comes out of the election. If you know, all things being equal. If Paxton winds up having to go into a runoff on this, I’m just

Josh Blank: not sure that there’s even 50% of Republican primary voters who have opinions about no, they don’t

Jim Henson: write overlapping, but that’s the that’s I guess that’s the point about, you know, the interest group universe.

So if you’re ever Guzman. And you can raise at least some money and you’ve got Texans for lawsuit reform and some associated groups willing to start, you know, making, you know, as many phone calls and mailings as they possibly can for you. Can you get yourself to 20% or move enough people off him? I mean, I just think it’s.

But it’s good, but

Josh Blank: if you’re going to do that, it’s going to have to be on these charges of basically corruption, you know,

Jim Henson: corruption. It’s been a pretty good position for that. Given

Josh Blank: her politically, I guess I wonder how much the interest, I mean, I guess the question then becomes is the interest group universal.

You know, comfortable now that they’ve gone as far as to make the endorsement going, I stepped further. Well, I, you know, I’m torturing him. I think

Jim Henson: there’s no going back now. Yeah. I mean, I mean, I think that decision has been, I think that question has been asked and answered among some of these groups and look, I’m, I’m, I’m a little surprised by it, given that, you know, this is not the only Paxton in the political system right now.

Yeah. And you know where there is a state Senator who. I’m sure there’s, you know, a Chinese wall being built here in some ways, as I recall the Senator, as I recall, the Senator was also at the Raleigh. Um, so, you know, I mean, I think there’s a, there’s, you know, there’s some interesting fluidity to this, you know, I guess, I guess I think the point is I would just say this, I mean, I would not bet much on this going to run off, but I.

I bet a little. And if you gave me some points, I’d probably put a little bit on it because just because, just because of the numbers, but we’ll see. So let’s, let’s, let’s switch over now and look at, you mentioned, um, The other side, the general election. We also had a little bit of, you know, we’ve, we’ve seen a little bit of movement in this as well.

Um, but there are, you know, there is an, uh, there is a field of candidates and I’m wondering, I’m kind of wondering why Justin Nelson isn’t running

Josh Blank: again. Yeah. But, I mean, this is, you know, but this is certainly bullish

Jim Henson: on his effort last time. Well, you know, and this kind of good came close objectively, it seems like he’d want to come back.

Well,

Josh Blank: I think this goes back to a certain thing that, you know, like we, we talk about this stuff a lot. Like, you know, so what are the set pieces and what are the, you know, what are the short-term factors? And it just, you know, I mean, I can’t help, but look across all this and say, you know, this or this one race we’re looking at.

You know, at the attorney General’s race right now. And there’s a reason for it. It’s vulnerable, but it’s also, you know, because of these candies there, but one of the things about all those about this, and it’s sort of, you know, I think it cuts across all the ratios. Texas is so damn big. It’s so expensive.

And this is a reason for someone like Justin Nelson to run again, he’s already put himself out there. A lot of people have voted for him, right?

Jim Henson: As he repeatedly

Josh Blank: pointed out, as he repeatedly pointed out. You know, he’s very bullish on his chances, but part of the issue, you know, you brought this up before, which is, you know, Democrats, you know, it’s sorta hard to get Democrats to run multiple times.

I think, especially statewide where it’s such a grueling, you know, PR you know, it’s just such a grueling endeavor when you don’t have the power it comes. So you can’t, you know, you’re not Ken Paxton. You can sit there and basically just put out a press release and, you know, create some news for yourself and put your name around something.

You got to work and you got to raise a ton of money. There’s a ton of markets. And so, I mean, to some extent, I would say like is on the, on the part of Democrats, it’s lame that they can’t get candidates to run more often, but also you have to just acknowledge it. Like it’s really hard. It’s hard for anyone trying to challenge it and comment within a primary.

It’s hard for anyone trying to challenge the incumbents in the general election. And so we seem to get the sort of rotating cast of characters, but very little repeats.

Jim Henson: And again, there are, you know, there are candidates in the race on the other side, and I don’t wanna, you know, zero that out. But I mean, I think it is striking that, you know, there was a lot of discussion during the legislature about, you know, there were always rumblings that some of the people that are involved in, in kind of criminal justice and legal stuff, uh, on the democratic side, particularly in the center, you know, thinking about getting in the AGS race, and none of that is really materialized.

And, you know, I mean, and I look, I get it. I mean the objective structural conditions right now.

Josh Blank: Yeah. And we’ll talk about this, some other podcasts, but I was looking into legislative turnover this last week has kind of, you know, there’s been a lot of attention on the number of retirements we’ve seen in the legislature, you know, too long didn’t read version is it looks pretty normal actually, especially kind of around a redistricting cycle, you know, right now, Uh, people in the house or Senate have either said they’re retiring or seeking a different office.

The average not including the session is about 30. Now. Admittedly we’ll have primaries and general elections, but since we’re coming out of the redistricting process, we’re not really going to add that many changes after that. Probably. I mean, we might add a few, but it’s not going to be like, uh, in terms of high watermarks for session turnover, not likely to be.

Unless something, you know, something happens

Jim Henson: well and it’s still not, you know, I, you know, I think we’ve not probably quite seen, you know, we’ll see in the next few days, how many, how much more turnover

Josh Blank: we see, but to connect this back. I mean, what’s interesting, I think over the more recent term that, you know, people might not kind of appreciate is, and most of the retirements have been on the Republican side.

Yeah. So more often than not, when we look at these retirements, it’s Republicans are retiring. Sort of some

Jim Henson: more upward mobility.

Josh Blank: There’s more, this is the thing. And this is I, I re I, you know, I’m working on, we’re writing something up and I’m working, you know, part of it is like, there’s all kinds of ways you can interpret this data, but one of the possibilities is for, you know, if you look at Republicans you’re right, right.

There’s more upward mobility. So ultimately, and that’s the other, the flip side of that is for Democrats, there is not more upward mobility, there’s a smaller number of seats. And so, you know, when you’ve got one, it’s not like you can just jump to another position unless you’re going to go say, be the mayor of Houston.

Jim Henson: Right. For example, I didn’t mean to pick on the democratic Senator per se, but no,

Josh Blank: I’m just, I’m just pointing at me. But I mean, I think it’s just a fact. I mean, I think we’ve had conversations with Democrats before where they basically say to the effect, you know, Yeah, this is working.

Jim Henson: Yeah. And, and, you know, you’re giving up something for, you know, a long shot at nothing.

And so, I mean, I get that, but I, and I, that does bring attention then to, you know, some of the other things that have been happening in some of the other races, um, You know, in the demo, you know, you mentioned, uh, how Dan Patrick, you know, was roughly the position that in terms of his job approval among Republicans, the Paxson was not much happening on that side, in that race, but it’s been a little frothy in the Lieutenant governor’s side on the democratic side.

Um,

Josh Blank: A little frothy. Well, you know,

Jim Henson: I mean, oh, we bet. So Matthew dad jumped in that race too, you know, some degree of, of, uh, I would say national, if not state a claim. Yeah. That’s interesting. I mean, he got a lot of, you know, I mean, I mean, ironically, I mean, I think, you know, Matthew, a doubt is probably better known to a national audience than he is to a state audiences, as we found in our polling when we pulled on him.

But, you know, Matthew got in and then.

Josh Blank: Well, he cleared, he cleared the way his work here was done.

Jim Henson: Yeah. So Matthew now to announced earlier this week that he’d be suspending his campaign for the nomination for Lieutenant governor and, and, you know, the announcement was interesting that he would be clearing the way for a more diverse, a diverse field.

And he was, you know, he looks forward to, you know, continuing the fight against Trumpism, et cetera.

Josh Blank: Thank you. You know, I mean, this is like a separate conversation maybe for another time, but I think about you. No doubt. Kraus. And I think about McConaughey is like, you know, just kind of using the space that was provided to sort of lift their name

Jim Henson: IDs.

Certainly that’s the only time that Matt cross will ever be mentioned in the same conversation as Matthew McConaughey do doubt. Well, you know,

Josh Blank: I mean, I, I, you know, I’m trying to, you know, look, I’m not a conspiratorial person, this isn’t a conspiracy. This is just, you know, tactics. I mean, I kind of wonder how serious Krause was about the age race and whether it, it wasn’t all along.

You know, by sort of shooting for the ag race and they, well, you know, but actually I’m gonna go back to the county. It’s like, well, you did the book list, you got the, you know, round of articles about the ag race. Now, you know, there’s a pretty good, I mean, honestly, it’s a pretty good strategic ploy if it were a strategic role to get your name out there.

But anyway, I digress, but the space was there. It seems like a lot of people are using the space, at least in a way that I haven’t seen recently. I mean, I,

Jim Henson: you know, it’s funny as you were talking about that in that, you know, you do see people move around around this point in the cycle. It was also a cyclical thing.

I think, you know, you were talking about redistricting in terms of turnover. That’s another thing, you know, there’s a certain amount of just, you know, disruption that’s happened in shifting around that has consequences downstream. Um, you know, this is also happening as Michelle Beckley is in that race, uh, state represents.

Who has decided that she will run for Lieutenant for the nomination. She was in temporary district. Right. And she got, yeah, she was somebody who got one of the, one of the, you know, interestingly, I think we talked about this last summer together. It was an interesting part of the strategy that Republican.

So look in terms of protecting many incumbent Democrats, although singling some out, particularly in the house for, well also in the Senate, singling a few, a few Democrats out for, um, um, some negative attention and redistricting Beckley was one of those. Um, and then we’ve also got a new entrance in the governor’s race.

And I think you did a media hit on this yesterday. Um, Joe Diaz, who, I guess in some form of disclosure, disclosure, we’ve both done. I think we’ve both done stuff. I’ve definitely done stuff over the years when she was at KUT. And then, uh, on the Texas standard, I was a little surprised by this. Yeah. I mean, not that you, I mean, great, you know, whatever free country, but I, you know, if you had said, Hey, would you have thought that joy ideas is going to run for governor?

I don’t think there would have been very many people. I haven’t asked people to KUT well

Josh Blank: was going to say she’s running for the democratic nomination for governor, and she’s got a pretty big upheld. To, to claim that nomination first and foremost, I mean, you know, it’s funny, you know, I mean, there’s sort of, this is like only partially about joy Diaz, but it’s sort of something that’s going on now a lot, which another sort of set of like versions of questions I get a lot are basically to explain whatever just happened via the lens of south Texas and the grand valley.

And like, this has happened multiple times and I, you know, and I understand the impulse. But I mean, what I was, you know, as soon as to what someone’s basically, I was like, well, is this, you know, is Beto gonna have a problem in the valley? Because you know, she’s got a Hispanic, she’s a woman, you know? And I was like, you know, to me, honestly, you know, the surname thing is sort of helpful around the margins.

I think the fact that. On KUT and statewide NPR radio, or a lot of Democrats, probably her is a bigger advantage than her last name. She actually probably has some general awareness amongst, you know, like a group that probably includes a lot of democratic primary voters, just to be honest, but ultimately, you know, it’s, I mean, if she didn’t have that experience, would we be like, even mentioning her at all?

And you’re saying, I want to say. There was a whole thing last primary where like, oh, Beto underperformed in the valley. And we went, we looked at them, right. And we said, well, first of all, you know, he was still getting majority votes in most of the counties. Number one, number two, if you go back and you look at his campaign schedule, and this is serve an interesting broader point, but he didn’t spend any time in south Texas leading up to that democratic primary.

He was around the big cities. And just say,

Jim Henson: you start taking time to go to all the, you

Josh Blank: know, remember the whole, all the counties. Yeah. But also, I mean, like he was spending most of his time. Where most of the votes are. Yeah. And that’s something about first this frame, which is, you know, number one, you know, the RGV accounts for like a little bit, under 3% of the statewide vote.

Total, if Greg Abbott is spending all of his time in the RGV and better raucous man, all of his time in the. Then it’s a pretty competitive election we got going on. Like, so let’s just, you know, I mean, there’s further sort of, you know, optics of this and, you know, trying to create a story, but I think this is a different campaign for our work and that he’s already spending much time there.

Like, cause you know what, he doesn’t really need to be on every college campus. He already has a lot of the democratic vote. I wouldn’t say locked up, but you know, at least it’s his to lose. And so that’s sort of, I mean, not to, you know, count Jodi as out before she runs, but like, it’s just a different race than it was last

Jim Henson: time.

Right. And there were people that tried to make, as I recall. And I, you know, I’m just thinking about this. I hadn’t prepared for the podcast. There are people trying to make hay of the fact that, you know, in. The 2018 primary, you know, there was a Hispanic surname candidate that was polling reasonably well going in, but I don’t think I came to much when we finally, when we saw the final boat totals, as I recall,

Josh Blank: she did what she did.

Okay. In some of the south Texas counties and things like that, they use it. But again, I mean, you kind of go back and you say, I mean, everybody again was saying, well, it works not. We’re got like the most votes of any Democrat in a primary up until that point. I mean, I was saying this sort of jokingly and something else recently that I was at, which is, you know, there’s the sort of expectations that we learn that people apparently always had, but that they don’t tell us about until after we actually get the election results and then they can tell us how, how someone underperformed and it’s like, well, look, put a number out there.

I mean, I just say, you know, I don’t, I don’t care, but it’s like, If, uh, you know, people feel like our work needs to be above some threshold, say what that threshold is right now. Right. Don’t wait until after we have the primaries in our work gets like 65, 70% of the folks said, well, if he’s not getting 80% of the.

Clearly. Oh, there’s something wrong. Yeah. Like let’s just, let’s just take it easy.

Jim Henson: Well, I think, you know, I th th so I think Jody has been in the race as an interesting development, I think. And I, you know, for a lot of the reasons you’re saying

Josh Blank: I would also, I mean, just her natural, you know, her history and her experience are going to give her an advantage.

And the, you know, someone who can, she can go in public, she can

Jim Henson: learn how to answer, ask and answer questions. I

Josh Blank: mean, she definitely has advantages to other candidates. She also has a major disadvantage, which is her. Name’s not Beto O’Rourke and she’s not now doing a hundred percent of Democrat.

Jim Henson: So I, I want to finish a little bit just on like, I, I do want to talk just for the last couple of minutes.

I mean, so we’ve had, you know, the Dowd bubble, the McConaughey. You know, there’s an interesting dynamic here that, you know, reporters have been talking about going in. And of course, you know, you and I have been on the podcast and certainly, you know, to reporters, you know, sort of dour about these things and a little dour is even, yeah.

I mean, dour, I think was good for the mood of the state. Last time. It’s probably a little mild for how we’ve been about this, but, you know, there is something very interesting. You know, in the kind of media, you know, the intersection of the media environment and politics about how these flashy objects appear in the Democrat, particularly in the Democrats field, the vision, and then really just don’t play out.

Um, You know, I mean, and I think, you know, we probably spent a lot of time talking about context and it really is interesting how much, how context is so important for these campaigns to achieve takeoff and there’s this. And I think there’s something really in the moment, like there are these fantasies that there’s like a third branch centrist approach out there that, you know, both Dowd and McConaughey kind of tossed out there, you know, Dowd, you know, had a legit.

I think, you know, well thought out. I mean, whether you think it was effectual or not, but you know, being involved with these kind of third way movements and organizations and stuff, you know, McConaughey, and I think a significantly less sophisticated way was trying to project that, you know, he was neither this nor that, and people are too partisan and, you know, he just wants good government, you know, kind of thing.

And I, you know, it’s just so ill suited to the moment.

Josh Blank: I’m trying to be, let me, I want to be a little bit careful in the way I briefly respond to this because I agree with you. And there is, you know, I would add to that. There’s also, you know, there’s also a lot of like, you know, the survey Ramage and sort of research infrastructure out there.

That’s trying to prove that this is true. Yeah. Right. Where people basically will. No, no, no. Americans aren’t really, you know, so divided, there’s all these, you know, really it’s like this and it’s like, Yeah, that’s kind of like say no, no, it’s not about whether you like Coke or Pepsi it’s whether you like this third thing that doesn’t exist that you’ve never had before.

Yeah. And it’s like, well, but I don’t want a banana, you know, thinking about soft drinks over here. And I was like, it’s like, and also I really, really hate Pepsi. And that’s the thing that I think we sort of forget. I mean, we weren’t, you know, we’ve sort of had this piece where stayed on forever about negative partisanship here, but, but it’s, it’s not even so much.

The F I mean, that’s what people need to stop when they’re sort of think about this. It’s not even so much that, like, you’re so committed to your party in America that like you would, you know, I don’t want to say anything, but I can, you do whatever for it. It’s the fact that you hate the other party so much.

The Democrats dislike the Republican party so much, and Republicans really disrupt the democratic party, democratic politicians so much. And so you started taking things and say, you know, It’s not, they’re not looking to jettison both. Right. They’re just trying to keep the other one out of power. And the idea that something had kind of come in from another dynamic or another dimension and sort of say, yeah, but what about this?

Yeah, but it takes a, I mean, you think about like, you know, party, infrastructure financing, getting all this stuff. It’s like the Democrats here barely have that. And they’re one of the two major parties, the idea that something’s going to organically come up from the ground and sort of provide something to people that they’re not clearly asking for.

It’s just to me, it’s just kind of fantasy. Yeah. But I think it also is, you know, it’s a symptom of the dysfunction overall in government that, you know, people are. I think, you know, open to highlight sort of having these discussions repeatedly about, you know, this kind of change. But I think, you know, as we study politics, we, you know, we have degrees and all that kind of stuff, you know, this, that kind of change happens, but it’s pretty, it’s, it’s a little bit less, you know, it’s not an, it’s not an enterprising politician kind of showing up in a Saint saying, well, what about this?

It’s usually a little bit messier and I think, yeah.

Jim Henson: And I just, yeah, and I mean, I just think the, yeah, the context right now, just the. It’s a very D doesn’t lend itself to that kind of,

Josh Blank: yeah. I mean, the economy thing is kind of a perfect example was, you know, he went and gave a really, really poor interview, you know, and really could not espouse a position on any number of, of, of, of major issues.

And I think that kind of brings up the issue here, which is, yeah, he can kind of say I’m for good government. I’m I’m not, I’m not for divisiveness. And also if it’s like, yeah, but like we’re having an election where we could talk about. Permitless carry. We could talk about immigration at the border. We could talk.

I mean, it’s something that I would think I was like, how about just running the state during a pandemic, Mr. McConaughey? Like, I mean, there’s some major, major stuff, abortion. We’ve gotta talk about education, all these issues and you, can’t the idea that you could just kind of come in and say, Well, I’m not really trying to like, you know, divide people.

It’s like, I just want to do the deal. It’s like, well, yeah. But yeah, it’s a little more

Jim Henson: complicated than that people are, I don’t think. And so, all right. So we will try to get that negative partisanship piece out. I was going to try to work on that before I left hand and I did not. Um, but we’re close. So with that, um, I think we’ll probably try to come back and do one more of these next week before this is all over, uh, this, all this being 20, 21 and the semester here, uh, until then, thanks for listening.

Thanks to our technical, uh, production crew here in the liberal arts development studio in the college of liberal arts. At the university of Texas at Austin, uh, we make reference to all kinds of data on this. You can find that on this podcast, you can find that data and much, much more at Texas politics dot U, texas.edu.

Thanks for listening. And we’ll be back soon.

The second reading podcast is a production of the Texas politics project at the university of Texas at Austin.