Ep. 84 – Latino Voting Power, Democracy, and the 2024 Elections: A Conversation With Sergio Garcia-Rios

[00:00:00] Peniel: Welcome to race and democracy, a podcast on the intersection between race, democracy, public policy, social justice, and citizenship.

Welcome to race and democracy. I’m really pleased to have as my guest today, my colleague and friend. Uh, Sergio Garcia Rios, who’s an assistant professor at the LBJ School of Public Affairs and also associate director for research at the Center for the Study of Race and Democracy. Uh, Dr. Garcia Rios was born and raised in Durango, Mexico, but considers El Paso, Texas his second home.

His research investigates the formation and transformation of Latino identities, as well as the political implications of these transformations. He also examines voter turnout, which we’re going to talk about a lot, political participation and public opinion, especially among Latino immigrants. Dr. Garcia Rios’s other academic interests include issues related to Latinos and the Voting Rights Act, border issues and border research, and the politics of Mexico.

He served as He serves as director of polling and data at Univision News. Okay, Sergio, welcome to Race and Democracy.

[00:01:19] Sergio: Thank you for having me. Yes, it’s such a pleasure

[00:01:22] Peniel: to be here. So, you know, your work is so vital, especially at this time, um, in terms of voting and voting rights and issues of democracy in the United States.

Uh, 2023, we have an election year, a federal election year coming up, uh, next November, um, we still haven’t been able to get. past the Shelby v. Holder decision of, uh, June of 2013. Um, where are we at? And, you know, when, when, especially your work is so interesting and important because we think about Latino voters, and I know Voto Latino and different organizations made the argument that starting in 2018 for the next decade, there was going to be a million new potential Latino voters, um, per year.

But in some ways, especially we’re in Texas and we think about Texas and, and, you know, sort of Latino votes, the muscle hasn’t been shown. Uh, in the way in which, um, many people thought it, it, it would be at this point, right? So what is the state of, um, you know, voting rights and Latino politics? And later on, we’ll talk about black brown coalitions, but where are we at in 2023?

I

[00:02:35] Sergio: mean, it’s exactly what you said, right? It’s, uh, we see the effects of, um, voting laws and the effect of, uh, court laws affecting the vote. I don’t even, I don’t even think we need to wait all the way until 2028 to see the effects and the magnitude of the Latino vote. Here in Texas. 23% of the vote in 2020 was, uh, Hispanic.

And, and it was young Hispanic vote too. Um, how young? It’s, it’s very young. Uh, on their, I think it’s 30, uh, 35% of voters are under 30% of these, of these, uh, voters. And so it’s usually is And that’s just

[00:03:20] Peniel: who voted. So, they’re who voted. 5% of the voters are under 30 years old?

[00:03:24] Sergio: Yes. Under 30. Okay. Of, of, of these.

So it’s, uh, And that’s who voted, not who could vote. Um, the potential of young vote is over 50 percent of current voters in Texas. And, um, every year, of course, a new batch of young voters become eligible to vote because they reach adulthood, uh, 18 year olds. And so by 2024, just one more year, we’ll probably be getting closer to 40 percent of that.

Uh, availability of potential young Latino vote. So it’s, it’s already there. And, and part of, um, what we see is that Latino voters are, um, participating at high rates, but they don’t always vote cohesively. And so, and why,

[00:04:12] Peniel: why

[00:04:12] Sergio: is that? Well, Latino voters have, um, this thing, uh, for the most part, we’ve seen them voting Democrat, but.

I think I’ll say in 2020, Latino vote was, uh, it determined many of the things that happened, certainly in Arizona. Um, certainly in Florida, but the voter in different directions, um, so Arizona

[00:04:38] Peniel: voted more blue, more,

[00:04:39] Sergio: no Arizona, but yes, more blue and

[00:04:41] Peniel: Florida voted

[00:04:42] Sergio: more red, more red. And both of those voters in, in their own way, determine the results of those two states, but determine those in different directions.

And, um, in Texas is sort of bringing it back home again, um, certain areas. Are, uh, Latino voters vote Republican in certain areas, but for the most part in Texas, they vote, um, uh, Democrat. Now, they having voters in Texas, at the day, that’s what I want. I want voters to elect their candidate of choice. Um, and, and voters in Texas have not been able to do that because of, uh, gerrymandering.

And, and, um, they also are not able at this point to outvote. the majority of the state, uh, which, uh, at this point tends to vote Republican and voters in Texas, vote Latino voters in Texas, vote Democrat for the most part. Latest data we have is over 70 percent of Latino voters in Texas are Democrat. And so as, as I’ll say, as we continue to see the state at the federal level in, uh, statewide elections and federal level, we’ll see the state getting closer and closer in terms of Democrat versus Republicans.

And that’s mostly because Latino voters are turning out to

[00:06:00] Peniel: vote. Now, let’s drill into this in terms of the issues, because you said correctly, and I think this goes for the black vote too, that Latino voters are not monolithic, so they don’t tend to be a cohesive voting group. Um, when we think about.

Whether they vote Democratic or Republican, historically, and then I’ll say contemporaneously, what are some of the issues that are really important for Latino voters? What would you say are the top, let’s say, what’s the top five? What are the top issues? This is so

[00:06:33] Sergio: interesting, Peniel. If you had asked me this question, I wouldn’t have been able to answer it in, well, I was gonna say if you had asked me this question in 1990, uh, but I wouldn’t have answered this question yet.

But, um, in 1990, if you had asked experts on Latino vote, they would’ve said, it’s all about immigration. And that answer would’ve continued well into the two thousands. And it is important for Latino voters, immigration will be the number one, the number two and number three in different, different, uh, aspects of it.

Uh, but. Already in 1996, we started to see this, uh, great effort of academics, uh, the Latin National Survey, over 8, 000, um, respondents, and they found that it wasn’t just immigration, it was not all about immigration, and they had concerns on education. They had concerns on the economy and they had concerns on, on, on the day to day life.

Uh, but they just haven’t been able to capture that because they hadn’t been good polling back then. And so two things happened. We started to poll Latino, uh, in a much more efficient way and seriously, but then also the, the preference started to change. Now, um, We see Latinos much more concerned with things that affect, uh, the day to day.

So, um, the most recent poll that we did, the LBJ, uh, Univision poll that we conducted, uh, last year show that, um, The economy was a great concern, second, um, uh, affordable, uh, healthcare system, uh, but we saw, uh, for the first time, I’ll say in a meaningful way, we saw mass shootings and gun safety popping up as one of the concerns.

In that survey, the LBJ, uh, Univision poll, we also had another sample of, um, black voters and a representative sample, including, uh, Anglo voters. And we found That both for. Black voters and Hispanic voters, uh, mass shootings was a big concern. Now, we had another survey from 2019 where 12%, 12 percent thought that that was the main concern, right?

12 percent of respondents say, so you approach people, you ask them, what’s your main concern? 12 percent say, well, I think the main, the main thing happening right now is mass shootings. This is 20, this is back in 2019. The most recent survey that we conducted just a few weeks ago is 30%. More than double, right?

So now you ask them, you know, a few are going to say the economy, healthcare. these things, but now they’re saying mass shootings. So if I go to the five, you know, whatever you want to put it right now, inflation, the economy, that’s going to be top priority. Number two is going to be mass shootings. Number three, right now, if you put together all the economy ones, it’s going to be climate change.

And so Latino voters are becoming very sophisticated. It’s not just immigration. Fourth, you’ll find immigration, and you’ll find it in the form of, um, border security. They’re not necessarily concerned with immigrants, you know, coming, trying to get a better life. They’re concerned about fentanyl and crime, sort of, in a different way.

It’s a more sophisticated view of immigration, but right now, uh, the economy, uh, mass shootings. climate change. Of course, it’s not a surprise when you had events like we had in El Paso, and that’s when we started to see this particular issue popping up, and then, uh, Uvalde, and then of course, uh, multiple times in Florida and other places, and all those instances Um, they’re not just isolated events.

Uh, in all those instances, Latinos have been targeted because they’re Latino, because they’re Mexican, because they’re immigrants. So it’s, uh, specifically targeting the community because of who they are, because of their identity, however you want to call it. It’s something that the community starts to see and starts to hurt and see as a big problem.

Well,

[00:10:43] Peniel: you talked about not having good polling data. Can you discuss with us your work with, you know, LBJ and Univision? How do you do the polling surveys? How many people? Um, you know,

[00:10:59] Sergio: all of it. Yeah. So it is, it starts there. I think usually what you will see, uh, in, um, media polling or commercial polling, uh, non academic, uh, even sometimes academic, uh, you’ll find, um, samples of.

100, 200 Latinos, um, and then, you know, they won’t be able to talk about young voters because they’ll have two or three people that are on their, you know, 30. And, um, so really at that point, uh, academically, scientifically, uh, speaking, their margin of error is probably huge. And so there’s no certainty, statistical, uh, certainty of what they’re claiming.

So it starts, it starts with how many you talk to. And then very importantly, and this is something that we’ve been doing, uh, I think we’ve been getting right, uh, is you talk to them, uh, in their language. And I don’t mean only Spanish, of course, Spanish. Uh, Many Latino polls don’t even, um, have, uh, Spanish available to respondents.

Uh, so at that, at that point, when you don’t have a Spanish available, you’re already targeting a much more assimilated second, third, fourth generation Hispanics. So it’s not representative of what the Hispanic community is. And, and then we reach out to them, uh, through multiple methods. So, uh, These days, um, most polling happens through panels.

So this is people who have opted in into surveys. And so every week they get three, four polls asking about, you know, what brand of, uh, you know, what brand of car they drive, how many hours of TV they watch, and then they’ll get a political poll too, uh, within those and these people who have opted in, we have, we know that our community usually don’t join this poll.

Yes. Right. For a number of reasons. For a number of reasons. Right. And so you won’t find them there. And if you find them, they don’t represent, they’re not representative of four communities. And so. Our first target is, we try to get them over the phone, we text them, we send WhatsApp messages, which, um, Latinos love WhatsApp, and so text messages,

[00:13:19] Peniel: WhatsApp Oh, tell me, I haven’t heard this before.

Tell me, tell me why. Well, you know, um,

[00:13:25] Sergio: in, in, in, in, to communicate in Mexico, uh, you don’t need a plan. You buy a, you know, you buy a cell phone and then, uh, you buy, um, A few minutes of time, and then you can just connect through wifi and you can call over the phone. You can message, so you don’t even have a plan.

You don’t need a year commitment on which, uh, in, in, in Latin America is, uh, very common. So they’ll have these phones that only work when they have wifi available, but they’ll find it for free everywhere. So really it’s like, uh, for them is having a phone, uh, that will connect. through, you know, uh, Wi Fi for free.

And so they don’t even have, they don’t even have the same number. My mom has changed her number multiple times. And so, uh, and, and she’s able to move her WhatsApp account. So they, they love it. In fact, um. If to make a reservation, I recently did a trip to, um, an America and to make the reservation, we, we kept calling until we send a WhatsApp message, we were able to get a hold of the front desk.

And so that sort of carries on. And people here in the U. S., um, of course, that’s the main way that they communicated there. That’s the main way that they still. keeping in touch with their families. So that’s a good way to reach out to them. Um, most, most people who, you know, will have family outside of the U.

S. will actually use WhatsApp. And so that’s how we reach out to them. Uh, text message, WhatsApp. And then we also try to get them through social media, get them a banner, you know, click this link, call this number. We want to talk to you. We want to hear your opinion. And then we’ll. Get some final, but it’s multiple ways because my mom, you’ll find this.

So I’m sure you haven’t. When was the last time that you picked up the phone on a number that you didn’t know? It’s probably been years. My mom, on the other hand, is more, most, most more likely to pick up the phone on that random number, then click on a link that she like that she’s getting over email.

She won’t, she won’t, right? Exactly, so that’s how we reach out to them. Multiple, multiple methods so that we can reach out to a representative sample of our community. And then, of course, we talk to them in Spanish or English at their discretion, and we ask them the question the way that they will understand.

Because we have, we keep saying this, that we have academic… And cultural competence. And so that’s really the only way to reach out to the community.

[00:15:54] Peniel: Now, I want to talk to you about Latino voters and the Democratic party and Latino voters and the Republican parties. Um, because I think the very fact that you’re saying it’s not a monolithic community is really important here because I think historically there was always a feeling that, um, Latinos were Democrats, you know, like Latinos were.

And, and I think it was in certain ways, it was, it was, uh, Praising them saying that these are folks who are social justice folks, folks who, um, and, you know, people are thinking about Dolores Huerta and Cesar Chavez, but others too, you know, um, who, who, who’ve been on picket lines, unions, um, who felt the sting of racism.

You know, who felt the sting of racism. We think about the U. S. Mexico imperialism, even going back to the 19th and 18th centuries, right? Um, and then suddenly it seemed as if and I’m just going by the sort of the political junkie I am. It seems as if once we got George W. Bush in who would governor of Texas from 1994 to 2000 and became President of the United States.

I’ll remind people in a very contested election, I was, you know, I was 28 years old and I have very contested election. Florida was the key, 5 4 Bush v. CORE. The Supreme Court really just stopped counting votes. And it was interesting because Gore wanted the votes counted in Dade County or Broward County, um, but I think they should have really done a statewide recount, truthfully, if you’re going to be fair about it, but they, the Supreme Court.

So we’ll, we’ll truly never know, um, really who, who won the election. More people tried to vote for Gore, but then, um, People start to say, because he could speak Spanish, Jeb Bush could speak Spanish, Jeb was married to, uh, Mexican, uh, uh, Mexican American, um, or was she, was she Mexican?

[00:17:49] Sergio: Yeah, Mexican, Mexican and became Mexican American.

And became Mexican American. And so. She identifies as Mexican American, but was, um.

[00:17:55] Peniel: And she, you know, and, and so it became, it suddenly, you know, Republicans became sort of identified as sort of these pro Latino. Um, um, politicians, even though, you know, on one hand, you had the Bushes and making these friendly overtures.

Uh, but then you had their border policies, their immigration policies, a lot of times scapegoating, um, Mexican Americans, um, and, and Latinos. So, and on the other hand, you have Democrats and Democrats, people now accuse them of taking Latinos for granted, right? I thought we would have had a Latino vice president way before now.

Like me personally, I thought we would have had, um, a Latino presidential candidate who won the nomination. Before now in either parties, doesn’t seem like that’s where it’s going, even though we’ve got the Julian Castro and Joaquin Castro. Um, we had former representative, um, former, um, uh, governor, um, uh, uh, uh, Richardson, um, uh, of, of Bill Richardson.

Bill Richardson of New New Mexico, New Mexico, who, who I always thought was a terrific, uh, uh, politician and, and example. So, so what’s going on? You know, um, what’s going on? with both parties, with both parties. And, and, and why aren’t we seeing Latino political power that’s really reflective of their demographic power, you know?

And I’m talking about in the U. S. Congress, in the U. S. Senate, but state legislatures, uh, in Texas, but outside of Texas, but also in the cabinet, just, just the whole political spectrum.

[00:19:36] Sergio: So you’re right that For the most part, we think of Latinos as, uh, Democrats. And by now, uh, we should, we should have seen, uh, many of those important, uh, um, offices being occupied or at least running at a, at a high gear, uh, office.

And we haven’t, in part, I think Latinos are not being. As there’s research out there, Latinos, and particularly Latinas, not being asked to run or not supported to run. And I think Latinos do feel that they’re being taken for granted. We’ve been asking this question, whether they think that Democrats support the community or whether Republicans, right, we ask them at different, different places.

And the answer continues to grow in the direction of No, they don’t. And then we also give them the option of whether they think they’re being hostile. And that’s also growing. And that’s true even for, for party sympathizers. So you ask people and they say, well, yeah, I identify as Democrat. And then we ask them, do you think Democrats support Latinos?

Do you think they don’t care? Or do you think they’re being hostile? And, you know, 5 to 8 percent will say, yeah, I’m Democrat, but I think they’re hostile towards our community. Or over half percent will say, yeah, I’m Democrat. Yeah, I’m Democrat or Republican for that matter, but they don’t care about us. I still, that’s who I am.

20 percent say, yeah, Republicans are being hostile, uh, toward Latino, toward Latinos. And so I don’t think they feel like either party really, uh, supports them. This country has, you know, a two party system, a two effective number of parties at least. And, and that’s not the case everywhere. Right. And I don’t think Latinos have been able to map out, even today, their preferences to one or another party.

I think they have this heterogeneous, uh, set of preferences that don’t quite map out to one party or another. And. Up until now, data show that they don’t feel like they fully embrace Democrats or Republicans. And I don’t think there’s a lot of discussion about Latinos becoming more and more Republicans.

And I think what we see, what we can see from the data at least, is that they’re becoming less and less Democrat, not necessarily more Republican. And so. Don’t necessarily have one way or another to, uh, to go. And in part it has to do with broken promises. Um, not embracing what, uh, the community will want.

And, and then also not enough support for these major figures. We don’t really have a major, uh, or a few major, uh, political figures, uh, leading the way. And we’ve got,

[00:22:35] Peniel: um, a. Yeah, but you know what we’ll see

[00:22:38] Sergio: in a few years, right? But she’s not really, um, necessarily a major figure even within the party. She’s been

[00:22:46] Peniel: a big voice, Green New Deal.

Certainly, I’d say that her public discourse has been more impactful. Then, um, an actual tangible policy result, but I think her public discourse on the Green New Deal has really impacted how Democrats and even Republicans talk about climate change. Yeah.

[00:23:06] Sergio: But, but, uh, exactly. But even, even so, if those issues are embraced, then yes, I would, I just said that climate change is a big thing for, for Latinos, but you know, we’ll see if, uh, those issues are brought up to the forefront and whether.

She’s embraced as a leader, right, uh, during the, uh, Clinton run, uh, the second one anyways, uh, Julián Castro was a potential, uh, ticket partner. Yeah. And he was passed on that. To

[00:23:37] Peniel: be vice president. That surprised me. You know, I was really surprised that she picked, um, Tim Kaine. It was a safe

[00:23:45] Sergio: option, many will see, but right, but that’s the thing, they’re, so, they continue to play, uh, safe ball, and then,

[00:23:52] Peniel: uh, And that really hurt Julian, because maybe if Julian had been the vice presidential candidate, even if they had lost, he would have had, um, a bigger, He’d have been a bigger figure nationally in 2020, and maybe he would have been the person who people, um, you know, converged around when you think about Kamala Harris and Joe Biden.

[00:24:15] Sergio: So, going back to the point of Latinos having this, uh, uh, diverse, uh, preferences. The preferred candidate during that primary for Latinos was Bernie Sanders. And that’s because back then if you asked Latinos what was the main issue was, um, health care and the cost of health care. And in their view, uh, it was Bernie Sanders who had the, the, the, the clear path or the clear plan for, uh, better, more affordable health care.

And we can agree or disagree with it, that was a good plan or not, but that’s how Latinos perceived it. And so, uh, again, I think that. That shows how, uh, when you have a clear policy proposal, uh, for Latinos, they’ll respond to that, respond to that. And it doesn’t have to be always immigration. Immigration is important, but, um, not the only issue.

And, so, what I see is, uh, I think that Latinos will continue to vote for, Who they think might have a better option, they don’t necessarily feel completely attached to one or another. Um, and that’s where both, um, Republicans and Democrats and Democrats have had this opportunity for so many years. You mentioned before I forget, you mentioned, uh, George Bush, but, um, we also know that it was actually, uh, During the Reagan administration that many Latinos started to become more and more Republican because there was IRCA, right?

The Immigration Reform and Control Act. Uh, known as the amnesty, right? Which, um, and many Latinos, uh, remember, you know, it was my great, my grandfather became citizen through that. So now we’ve been voting Republican all these years. So, but. Of course, um, it wasn’t, it wasn’t enough because then the Republican Party sort of turned their back on, on, on being sensible that way.

You mentioned, uh, W. Bush, but, uh, I always have my students watch this debate, uh, between, um, uh, George H. Bush, you know, Bush father, um, and Reagan. during the primary, Republican primary, and they get a question on whether, uh, Houston high schools, I think, um, should support, um, students who came, uh, undocumented.

And George Bush says, well, I don’t, I don’t want these people who are good people, um, you know, going without an education. And, and the question is bigger than that. And he says, then, you know, this is good people, part of my family. Uh, is Mexican. He says that. And then Reagan sort of follows him and says like we need a bigger answer than that, right?

Like, we actually need to do something about, you know, all these people because that’s kind of the future. They are going to be here. We need to help them. When you hear that, it’s, it’s unbelievable that that’s coming from the front runners of the Republican ticket, right? Who ended up being president, vice president, and then president, uh, eventually.

Now neither one of those will be on the stage, right? I just, I’m just coming back from the Republican debate, um, uh, because we did this, uh, survey and You wouldn’t, you wouldn’t see George Bush or, uh, Reagan for that matter. And it was at the Reagan presidential rivalry. You wouldn’t see any of these two at the stage.

So there will be too progressive.

[00:27:38] Peniel: And part of, part of what happened, because this happened to Obama when he tried to do immigration policy too, is that part of what happened to the Republican party though, and this is why it’s interesting to me that so many Latinos. are not democratic, even if they’re not Republican, is that the Republican party became a party that was really taken over by, um, It’s most, uh, far right wing grassroots insurgency, and this goes, I mean, I work on this, and this goes back to, uh, the John Birch Society, and it goes back to not just William F.

Buckley and National Review and Barry Goldwater, but I really focus on both the John Birch Society And, um, we, we think about parent teacher associations, what in the, in by 1963, what political experts were calling amateurs. They were saying there was a rise in political amateurs who could get people elected.

They had helped John F. Kennedy get elected. They helped Stuart Udall talk about climate change. They helped all these different groups. And what’s so interesting about immigration and Latinos and Republican parties that. The Republican Party right now is a clear expression of that most far right wing grassroots insurgency that even 60 years ago was talking about conspiracy theories.

60 years ago, they were talking about, um, uh, federal overreach. But conspiracy theories about the Kennedy administration wanted to take all your guns and do all these things. And that the Kennedys, and this is incredulous, who are some of the biggest cold warriors of the 20th century, We’re actually in cahoots with Castro.

We’re actually in cahoots with Nikita Khrushchev. This is mind boggling. But it was there 60 years ago. What’s so interesting for us is that, that part of the Republican Party that had been fringe, has actually become mainstream, right? And has actually taken over the apparatus. But then I would ask you, and this is where I wanted to talk about black voters, what does it mean for Because, you know, historically, at least since the civil rights period, there was always a hope that Black and Latino, both voters and people and communities, would get together in a coalition, a coalition of people of color, because they had so much common interest.

They had common economic interest. Sometimes when we think about Afro Latino politics, they had common ancestry, and they were marrying each other. And when we think about Folks from the Dominican Republic and from, from, you know, you know, Haiti and Puerto Rico and, and all over the place, Brazil, Mexico has, uh, Afro Latino and Afro indigeneity.

Right. Uh, so there was a feeling that what, what if one day the United States is going to become a majority. A so called minority country, but majority people of color, um, there was a point where African American birth rates were really high, not any longer. The Latino birth rate is really the only birth rate that’s robust in the United States.

And so what does it mean that Latinos are moving away from the Democratic Party at the very moment where African Americans are really doubling and tripling down on the Democratic Party in a sense of not only because of Obama, but because of what happened to the other party. Because if you go back 60 years ago, you would have Blacks who split the tickets, who would vote for the Republican Party because it was a party of anti slavery and abolition in Lincoln, but then who were voting for Democrats because of FDR and the New Deal, and John F.

Kennedy calling up Martin Luther King Jr. ‘s wife in 1960 and helping him get out of prison. So, what are we to make of that?

[00:31:09] Sergio: This is an interesting question. It’s a complex question, right? Complex, uh, answer, I think. So, the first thing that we have to understand is, uh, there’s still… 70 percent of Latinos who are Democrats, so that’s all an overwhelming majority.

There’s, you know, 30 percent give or take, uh, percent of, um, Latinos. And so, on, on that same, uh, uh, part of the answer, uh, it, Latinos, have changed from from the 90s and 80s and there’s a demographic change in the sense that Now because immigration halted for a while or even decreased the main contributor to Latino growth is As you mentioned it birth rate Uh, so natural birth, so not immigration.

So people being born and then this, this has been happening for a while now. So now there’s a bigger percentage of Latinos who are third, fourth generation, right? Who for whom, um, who starting to look more. Um, like the general population, and I’ll say for many of them, uh, through mixed marriage and all of this, they’re starting to look more like the white population.

So these are still people who might identify Latino, but whose preferences start to align more with, away from what traditionally we understand as the Latino vote. And there’s also been change on the socioeconomic status of Latinos. That’s also changed the preferences. Still. It’s only about 30 percent of, uh, uh, Latinos that will vote for, uh, uh, Republican.

And in this case actually happens to be Trump, they report. Most of them still will support Trump. Um, but. The issue I think is, Peniel, I think that coalition happened during, uh, uh, the year during the Obama years, that coalition was there, but I don’t think right now, um, there’s an agenda, a political agenda, that’s black and brown, right?

So it is true that, uh, uh, black voters for the most part have, double, triple on, on, on the democratic agenda, but it’s not necessarily a black, brown, uh, people of color agenda. And that’s not that. So I think Obama was able to mobilize a vote with that agenda. And he still had to be very careful being the first black president and, and kind of been in different ways, but he felt it was, I think voters felt it as that, like they thought that it was a, um, a.

black brown movement. And we haven’t had that. And right now what we have after the pandemic, you know, even with the backlash after the Obama years and then the pandemic and now inflation is really more, mostly a survival type of agenda. How do I bring. You know, uh, food to the table and my day to day life.

So I, I see it there. I think it’s there, but right now what we have when we ask voters, so what, why, what will you vote for Republicans? And many of the, especially all you vote for Trump and many Latinos will say, I think he has a good plan for, um, inflation and, and, and they remember. When we ask them in focus groups, when we ask them, so what do you remember about the Trump years that you will vote now or still vote for Trump?

And they’ll say, well, 16, 17, 18, we had good economic years. And of course we can debate here whether that was the legacy of Obama. Oh

[00:34:38] Peniel: yeah. Right.

[00:34:39] Sergio: Certainly. But voters won’t really see that. And, but they remember that things were better economically, at least that 30%. So I think the coalition is there. And I, I, I think that we will see it.

Um, I don’t think that the current political climate has us there yet.

[00:34:57] Peniel: Okay. I’m going to ask just one more question. And this is a question about hope. Uh, where, where do you see us, uh, going in terms of Latino voters, but also voting rights and voter access? Right. Because I think one of the things that’s happening, and I don’t think this is a coincidence as you’ve gotten more and more Latinos eligible to vote, and this has happened to black people, but not in the same numbers right now, because Latino, the numbers are really extraordinary.

Um, you’re getting more voting restrictions. And I think one of the reasons the way which people have been able to pass those voting restrictions are by focusing on black voters and not Latino voters. Right. So it’s really very, very interesting because. Latinos are really, especially this new generation, are being targeted to not vote because some, like you said, and it’d be interesting to ask you if your data, are the younger Latino voters even more heavily Democratic and progressive than older Latino voters?

And so, you know, what do you feel is going to happen? Because in certain ways, I think Latinos have been Jim Crowed. In the 21st century in ways that they don’t understand and comprehend, because when you think about Shelby v. Holder, all the black people get upset, but you don’t understand that the way in which they pass these laws of voter I.

D. and these things, they’re going to impact you too, because not all Latinos are part of that 30 percent of the population. that you describe with Republicans who might have been here for four generations, who might be white passing, who are very much assimilated and are saying, look, I’m a Latino Trump voter.

I’m very, very proud with the suit and tie. And you might have a Harvard MBA. Look at Senator Ted Cruz, right? But not every Latino voter is Senator Ted Cruz.

[00:36:43] Sergio: Fortunately not. But, um, and this is where, this is where my, um, Univision poster hat is off and my academic hat is on, um, and, and part of the problem is, um, Latinos have what I call, uh, this portfolio of identities.

And so there’s multiple identities and it’s, I think, uh, politicians have not been able to figure out these multiple interests, multiple identities that play at different points. And, and, um, you ask about, you say that it was going to, this was going to be a more positive note. And I. I honestly see the next few years as, uh, years of, uh, challenge where, um, there’s a clear trend, uh, where this country’s becoming, uh, browner and, and less white.

And the response is gonna be, uh, this, uh, d new era as you call it, the, the 21st century. Jim Crow. Yeah. Uh, where there’s going to be more and more efforts to, uh, isolate, uh, brown voters. And that many, uh, Latino voters will buy into these narratives of, um, individuality and success and, uh, all these things that, um, hurt the community as a whole, right?

And Latinos are entrepreneurs. and they like to open their own businesses and do all these things. But, um, we all, we also have data showing that it’s, it’s when, when we all work together, when the community sort of really, um, uh, is able to move forward. But, uh, what I see is more efforts to isolate Latino phone.

Uh, but, but I, the Point of hope is what you mentioned too, which is that young voters, in fact, tend to be, um, much more responsive to those efforts. And I think young voters, as we get them involved in the process, and this is probably a call to politicians and, and, and people, uh, working in the grassroots mobilizing efforts, is that young voters will have the answer to, um, make Latino vote, uh, significant at the state level.

And that’s where it’s going to start. And I think we’re going to see that next electoral cycle, and that’ll be my prediction, that Nevada and Arizona, and we already saw some of that, that Nevada and Arizona will show that mobilizing young Latino voters is the key for Democrats. And it’s the same, I’ll say, in Florida, right, for Republicans.

Because at the end of the day, what I want is for Latino voters to have a voice, whatever that voice is. Um, but it…

It’s the way that they’re being targeted, uh, to being demobilized that worries me. And so having, having our voices heard, um, it’s important and it will come. Hopefully, this is my hope from young Latino voters.

[00:39:52] Peniel: All right, we’ll end on that note of hope. I think really also coalitions. I think young people realize, I think young black voters.

Realize this, too, that we need coalition politics that will include, um, Latino and black and, uh, progressive whites and, you know, Asian American, Pacific Islanders, all, all of it, if we’re going to really have any kind of lasting change, uh, in the country. All right. Thank you, uh, Dr. Sergio Garcia Rios. Thank you for this, this wonderful conversation.

Dr. Sergio Garcia Rios is assistant professor, um, in the LBJ School of Public Affairs. Uh, at the University of Texas at Austin and also associate director of research, uh, at the Center for the Study of Race and Democracy. And he serves as director of polling and data at Univision News. And you are working on a book and what is the book’s title going to be?

[00:40:43] Sergio: It’s the Portfolio of Identities, right? So where I talk more about this, uh, diverse set of preferences and the way that Latinos are, uh, becoming, uh, part of this country in their own way. And, uh, very diverse way. And, uh, and we’ll continue to, uh, do more studies, uh, more polling. And, uh, you know, people can find all those studies and all those efforts, uh, you know, LBJ and the CSRD

[00:41:10] Peniel: website.

Okay. That’s awesome. Portfolio of identities. Okay. I love the title. I can’t wait to read it. And we’ll be back, uh, together talking about that as well. Uh, so thank you. Thank you. Thanks for listening to this episode and you can check out related content on Twitter at Peniel Joseph, that’s P E N I E L J O S E P H.

And our website, csrd. lbj. utexas. edu, and the Center for Study of Race and Democracies on Facebook as well. This podcast was recorded at the Liberal Arts Development Studio at the College of Liberal Arts at the University of Texas at Austin. Thank you.