From a Great Society to a Resilient Society: Episode 5 – A Resilient Future in a Globally Connected World

[0:00:00 Speaker 1] This’ll is policy on purpose. Ah, podcast, produced by the LBJ School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin Way take you behind the scenes of policy with the people who helped shape it. For more, visit LBJ dot utexas dot e d u For the next installation of our resiliency discussion, we’re going to explore global development priorities for the Biden administration in a post covert world. I am joined by LBJ colleagues, professors Cake Weaver, Will Imboden and Patrick Bixler. Welcome, Kate Will and Patrick. Well, let’s start with you. How much has Cove? It changed the global order. Sure, Stephen. It certainly has changed it, but not as profoundly as a lot of people thought it might be. Of course, it’s still a little bit early to tell. But the way foreign policy, uh, strategists think about these things is when a crisis comes along, does it cause a major continuity? Dis continuity where it totally changes the direction of the world? Or rather, does it accelerate pre existing trends and the big discontinuities? We look at our like the end of World War One in the Spanish flu crisis, which you know totally disrupted on dissolved a number of empires or the end of World War Two or the end of the Cold War. Those what we look at as major disruptions, discontinuities. And we haven’t really been seen that with co vid. Rather, if you look at if you take a snapshot of the world as it was in December of 2019 on a lot of the big geopolitical trends, those have just been accelerated and continued. And so the world in the January 2021 you still have US China competition. You still have tensions between the US and Russia. You still have climate change is a major issue. You’re still having a global erosion and democracy. You still have populist and protectionist sentiments around the world. So, Cove, it has accelerated and exacerbated a lot of these. But it hasn’t totally disrupted the world the way that we the way that we thought it would be, Kate, anything that you’d add towards comments.

[0:02:08 Speaker 0] Yeah, I would agree with all of those points. Um, it’s a slightly different picture for developing countries and emerging market economies, where the cove it pandemic has had a much more dire threat to stability and security in these countries. So in particular what we’ve seen a Z, the effects of cove. It is a massive economic downturn which, of course, hit states that are more fragile economic conditions. So we’ve got many countries that are on the brink of debt crises, as we talk about in our essay. But also, we’ve got dramatically rising levels of food insecurity, reduced access to education and then some very alarming trends and the increase of forced child labor and early childhood marriage. Eso this is all wrapping up to be a development crisis that is emerging in the wake of the covered pandemic. Um, you know, alerting us to the fact that this is not just a global health crisis is actually a holistic development problem.

[0:03:11 Speaker 1] Yeah. Uh, Patrick, any other? Any other thoughts that you’d add? Thio Willard Cates. Comments? Yeah, just that there are some things that you think about, uh, proportionality and economic missed. You know, some populations are being hit much harder by a, uh, growing by e. As a result, took over 19 pandemic across the country. Uh, Pat, Thanks for that, Kate. I want to turn to your work, particularly the piece that you wrote for our tool kit which explores covitz impact on developing countries Onda looming debt crisis, um, that many of them are facing Why is it important for the US to take on this issue now when we have so much other issues on our plate?

[0:04:08 Speaker 0] Yeah, I think it’s very important for the U. S and the by administration to pay attention to this now because what you don’t want is another great debt crisis. Global debt crisis exploding the world. We’ve already had several of these, as we know for the 19 eighties on. And the conditions were quite right for domestic that crises and most developing emerging market economies to spill over into financial contagion. So, in order to prevent the next great financial crisis that it’s very important for the US to lead international efforts and debt relief and restructuring right now to prevent this outcome

[0:04:47 Speaker 1] in Patrick. Similarly, you wrote that the covert impact has had some really impacts on the way that we’ve approached or will approach the climate crisis going forward. What are some of those thoughts or lessons learned that we could look for from the covert impact globally that maybe teaches some thoughts on how to address, uh, issues around climate change in the future. Yeah, a pandemic e a burden, Really? The negative is that one from stressors E. Think about what you think about the shop for hazard a priest. Global warming booth, social vulnerability, limbs isa commonly used treatment. It turns out a lot of the same communities impacted back to the 19 be those communities that are most impacted by climate change. So trying to find that sweet spot where you can build resilience in, um, certain aspects certain communities in the population can really have multiple benefits. So well, as we sort of look to the future new administration here in, um in in the United States and sort of looking at the question of foreign policy and domestic developed a global development, but also climate change. You know, what are the main challenges that you see that the bite administration faces on a foreign policy front? Well, boy, Stephen, it it would almost take us all day. I mean, the administration has a very, very full inbox. As a sui would say, I think we’d probably have to go back to 1980 when Reagan administration took office. You know, 40 years ago to see a similarly broad array of really severe challenges that in incoming presidency faces, I mean, just to take off the highlights. Obviously, uh, severe and growing tensions between the US and China. Um, major tensions between the US and Russia, especially with Russia’s solar solar winds hack and the arrest of Alexey Navalny. Um, certainly a growing crisis in the US Iran relationship, especially as Iran is, you know, restarting its nuclear its uranium enrichment program. Uh, signs from the North Koreans about another missile test, another nuclear test, perhaps. Oh, and then there’s also a global economic recession. Uh, and a global pandemic. Eso itt’s a very significant set of challenges. Fortunately, this is a very capable team of the Biden team, and they know what they’re what they’re getting into. And they’ve been preparing for this for quite a while. So those air Ah, a large list of challenges. What opportunities do you see any sort of opportunities to build towards the future? Yeah, well, that’s the good news. The flip side of this is, you know, with for every crisis, there’s hopefully an opportunity lingering in it and a few that I will highlight. Uh, just a really big picture level. They had a chance to kind of recapture revitalize America’s image of soft power in the world. They’ve already been taking some significant steps on that, whether it’s rejoining the W show or the Paris Paris climate accords, Um, or just be engaging with our allies, you know, rebuilding our alliances, which were severely afraid of the last couple of decades. It started, started under Bush, and then Obama and, of course, was accelerated under under Trump a chance toe. Revitalize America’s alliances, Um, and a chance to show some leadership on the cove in response. I mean, it’s significant that most of the emerging back new vaccines they’re coming, aligned, redeveloped were developed largely by American companies, of course, with global global cooperation multinational cooperation. But again, just as the U. S. Last year had, you know, one of the worst coated responses in the world, Uh, which is, you know, very damaging our country, of course, very damaging. Our image were now seen. Uh, the US is showing some real leadership with solutions to the to the coca crisis. So there are a lot of opportunities for the Bible team. Yeah. So our technology, science and innovation for the U. S. Has really stepped up to maybe help us rip our image, perhaps. Yeah, exactly. Um, and not just produce that. But then, you know, sharing sharing it with the world. Yeah. Okay, so building on those comments What What are the chances in the U. S. For bipartisan efforts? Thio tackle global development issues like the debt crisis.

[0:09:11 Speaker 0] E. I think there are a lot of opportunities right now, and I’m quite optimistic. So, for example, in foreign aid policy, we’ve actually historically seen ah, higher level bipartisan effort than we have seen in other policy sectors. So in the past, Trump is trying to cut foreign aid by about 30% a year. But surprisingly, Congress has come back with the Republican Democrat consensus to maintain at least status quo levels of foreign aid. So with a Democrat led Congress were actually likely to see an increase in foreign aid. Um, one of the things I’m most worried about, however, is that there is this growing movement for more economic off target. With respect, Thio, distribution of the vaccine globally this morning and we see that the European Union is considering legislation to block the distribution of vaccines outside of the EU on there’s chances that this will be part of the US discourses well, so there’s a great opportunity to pay more attention to foreign aid increase. Resource is. But in this critical area of vaccine distribution, we may have some significant hurdles to overcome.

[0:10:19 Speaker 1] Yeah, and so to get over those obstacles, what’s needed? What more can we

[0:10:23 Speaker 0] dio? Really? There needs to be a lot of international cooperation. So not just the vaccine distribution, but on a coordinated response with respected that relief and development spending. And so the opportunities and the obstacles lie, especially with the US and China cooperation. On this front, they have a consensus around the need for debt relief, but a great deal of disagreement over what the actual terms of those debt restructurings need to look like. Eso. That’s one big hurdle, but also we see that you know, major state powers in the world need to work actively with the private sector. The private sector holds a great deal of debt, and if they don’t agree on the terms of debt relief. You know, basically, these policies aren’t gonna work moving forward. So we’re going to see a lot of effort in forms like the G 20 to try to come up with plans that involved all the relevant stakeholders. So I think it is a massive collective action problem with lots of different interests and the necessity to come to consensus and action on very short time horizon.

[0:11:31 Speaker 1] Yeah, that’s great, Patrick, what about the issue of climate change? You know, building off of Kate and Will’s comments both maybe about opportunities and challenges that you see, you know, what challenges do you see it? And and then how do we build off of those toe leverage? Some of the opportunities that we have toe tackle this

[0:11:48 Speaker 0] issue.

[0:11:49 Speaker 1] Yeah. Stephen really could take everything that will said and replace climate with national international security and everything. Case head and replaced climate with debt because their points were spot on. Um, you know, it really is gonna come down to international cooperation. I think there’s a huge opportunity for, um, you know, the US. We have to step back into those leadership roles in lead by example. Um But we also have to establish those those international relationships. I mean, one of the biggest risks with climate is, um uh, institutional fragmentation ship s. So we have to think about building those relationships, those multilateral relationships and those multi level relationships. I think one of the examples with the covert crisis is, for example, Texas and Louisiana shutting their border. Um, you know, to prevent the spread of people across interstates, um, similar parallels with the way we’re thinking about restricting the vaccine. But it is those types of relationships and those linkages that are going to be critical to adapt, to make the types of adaptive changes, policies, etcetera that we’re gonna be climate change. Um, you know, on the other, the other real promising, uh, sign is the Bible administration’s focus on environmental justice and the way they’re really putting justice front and center on. I think that this sort of sets us down a path to address the country’s long history of environmental racism. It opens up, you know, some really necessary but really promising pathways to addressing social vulnerability on bond, helping mitigate risks of climate to our most vulnerable communities and populations. That’s great. So, Kate, Will and Patrick. Thanks for joining us. I love for folks to learn more about your work. Will. Where can people find out more about what? You’re working on it. LBJ School. Sure. Well, you could certainly goto my Web page on the LBJ School website or similar to the research and teaching center that I direct the climate center for national Security, which is kind of center dot Warg. I’m afraid I am not on social media, which overall is good for my sanity, but also is a detriment for keyword out. Yeah, for sure. You’re right about the sanity piece, right? Uh, Kate, what about yourself, my friend?

[0:14:10 Speaker 0] Well, if I ever managed to update my web page, you might find more information at the LBJ site as well. Said I asked to co direct a lab on campus here at the University of Texas called Innovations for Peace and Development. And we keep a lot of our research on that. I am on Twitter, unfortunately, and my Twitter feed is Kate Weaver, U t

[0:14:32 Speaker 1] perfect and Pat. What about you? Where’s your work and be found? Yeah. So you can follow me on Twitter at at RP Bixler. Another interesting spot, especially if you’re interested in what’s happening locally. And in Austin we have ah project. That’s the Austin Indicators and we have a website that Austin Indicators or gig You can also find me at the R G K Center website, our GK Center for Flint Flint being community service. A swell is the LBJ School website. Great Pat Kate. Well, thanks for joining us. We really appreciate it. Thank you so much. Thistles Policy on Purpose, a podcast produced by the LBJ School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin Way take you behind the scenes of policy with the people who helped shape it. To learn more, visit LBJ dot utexas dot e d u and follow us on Twitter or Facebook at the LBJ School. Thank you for listening