GOV310 – In The News: A look at national politics through the eyes of Texas, June 25, 2019

[0:00:09 Speaker 1] live from the University of Texas at Austin, the liberal Arts Development Studio and the Department of Government. Present introduction to American government with your professors, Darren Shaw and Eric McDaniel.

[0:00:26 Speaker 0] I’m Professor Shaw,

[0:00:27 Speaker 2] and I’m Professor McDaniel. Welcome to in the news for American in Texas politics.

[0:00:32 Speaker 0] You know, we got a skeletal crew today. Seems like summer has hit fresh for McCain. And I are alone in a room, and hopefully we’re looking at the right camera. So forgive us if we sort of dart missing, obviously in the wrong direction. Well, you guys survived the first midterm exam. We had, uh, maybe, like, half a dozen or so technical issues, I think, all of which were resolved. Sometimes a resolution meant that there was a quick and kind of fairly painless rescheduling. But, uh, the grades will be unveiled by the time you guys see this particular the new segment. Now we want to emphasize again that you’ve got multiple components of the class you’ve got the in the news segments, the modules, the web text as well as the exams. Um, it’s not difficult necessarily to gauge where you are in the class and given point in time. But remember, you’re accumulating points and at any given point in time, if you want to come to office hours and talk with myself or Professor McDaniel, we can kind of show you where you are in the course of the class. But since people turn turn things in a different points in time, it’s not always easy to go on canvas and figure out where you are. Visa vee the rest of the class. So you know, again, keep in mind the total points that are possible in the class, and you want to be working towards you know, some huge magnificent percentage of that right? You consult your syllabus to see the total points and kind of our thoughts with respect to the great point cut offs and as well consult the video that we did at the beginning of class, where we sketched out what would happen if we had occurred from dinner. I anticipate we’ll probably have a slight curve. OK, so use the reference material to establish where you are in the class and certainly followed up with personal contact with Mr McDaniel on yourself. Just so we want to make sure you guys are not lost that you guys know where you are in the class. Know where you stand on that? Things are progressing pretty well. How you doing

[0:02:34 Speaker 2] my my summer outfit? Uh, I did bring in a shirt, but I was like, It’s just too hot.

[0:02:40 Speaker 0] I know, I know. That’s a nice rain. Yesterday is that was pretty cool. All right, so we’re gonna cover three topics in our fourth in the new segment today. Couple briefly up top. They are obviously important and relevant. And then we’re gonna talk about the Iranian situation, the standoff pretensions between United States and Iran. We’re going to talk about the immigration issue and particularly, ah, deportation situation or a planned deportation initiative that the Trump Administration had considered last weekend. And we’re gonna talk about the Democratic nomination debates, which you’re going to be Wednesday and Thursday of this week. We’ll talk more extensively about those debates. We kind of saved it for a while. It’s time to talk some electoral politics. Right, But let’s start. Let’s start with the foreign policy situations first from Dan. You want to set the table? What? What’s going on with Iran? What’s relevant for American politics class,

[0:03:33 Speaker 2] So the tensions have been building between the US and Iran. Specifically, the rain has been accused of setting minds within shipping lanes on, so it’s seen as getting direct military action. Furthermore, Iran is discussed violating the nuclear arms deal that was set up one that was really settled. President Obama, they re negotiated by President Trump on. So President Trump actually was gonna call from direct military action against Iran, but called it off about a couple hours before it was I’m going to go into effect. And one of these has been pointed out is that you kind of had to camps. He had one that was very hawkish. Eso you think of again the former I think the U. N Ambassador, former U. N. Ambassador Bolton on the secretary defense. Pompeo, who were very hawkish and one do you use for military action? Uh, but they also have those who kind of easing back on that now. There was some action taken specifically through the use of through cyberattacks on on Iran to basically demonstrate some level based, high level displeasure with way of the Iranians are reacting and kind of the increased a kind of aggressive nature of the nation. Now, one of things important note about this when we think about what happened within the Trump administration is you kind of have to camps going on and you see a bit of indecision on the part of the president because of really take direct military action. And again, this is a president who has been very open to using direct military action to defend the interests of the nation and to push back to make a push back against those who may see as aggressive toward towards the nation but at the same time saying, Okay, well, what the actual cost of this be now get President Bush has also been very isolationist. And so you have this issue of will. Do we take direct military action, But there’s also kind of violate my the idea. You’ll keep the US out of out of foreign issues, and one thing is also important. And pressure. Sean I talked about this is that even in the executive branch, you have different ideologies or different ways of seeing the world going, going on and competing with each other, and that sometimes you may not have a unified vision. And I think with this type of direct military action, where again the risk and the cost can be very high, that you want to make sure that everybody was on board and everybody is eyes seeing things the same way because once this happens is really no no going back. And so I think there This is one of those things where you see the president really trying to contend with the various ideologies with is his various stances that may come in conflict with each other, but also the stances of those in his administration that may come into conflict with each other.

[0:06:30 Speaker 0] Yeah, it’s ah, you know, it’s an interesting situation for the president, right? President Trump came into office after 2016 campaign in which he pledged to end U. S involvement in Iraq to end U. S involvement in Afghanistan, to bring our troops home and to really kind of orient his foreign policy around Ah, fairly narrow interpretation of American interests. All right, we were only going to be directly engaged when American interests were directly in play. And so here you have this situation Iran, and for those you haven’t been paying attention. That would include a lot of this, including myself. In some sense, you know, what’s happened over the last three or four months is that, you know, this deal that the United States had gone into with Iran this nuclear deal in which, uh, Iran agreed to basically forestall its development of the nuclear program kind of is a precursor to becoming a nuclear bomb producer. Iran said, Okay, we’re going to be 10 years. We’re not going. We’re not going to enrich uranium plutonium to an extent that can lend itself Teoh making nuclear weapons. In exchange for that, you all the Western countries, Russia, United States are going to end your economic sanctions that you’ve had on us. That was the That’s the bones, the nuts and bolts of the nuclear deal. Trump and the Republicans thought it was a bad deal. Ah, lot of the provision of it were front loaded. In other words, the sanctions, the economic sanctions and other things came off immediately, and but Iran didn’t really have to any of these mile posts until kind of further down this 10 year deal. Now, interestingly, this was not a treaty that was negotiated between the United States and Iran. Right, If you going back to our recitation of the Constitution, you may say, Well, you know, how can Trump simply pull out of a treaty without consent of the Senate? There was no treaty. This was an executive agreement. It’s part of the executives kind of take over a foreign policy that Professor McDaniel I will talk a lot about in the presidency module. Okay, so that’s kind of the interesting Touchstone point, right? That, you know, this whole thing is the result of a presidential deal. And you see kind of the limits of executive agreements here that the executive agreement is in force as long as the executive is in office. Once Obama left, Trump was really under no obligation to continue to honor this agreement. Some foreign countries. This comes as a bit of a surprise like, Well, wait a sec. I thought we had a deal. So in a rate, the United States reinstated its economic sanctions. Now the other countries involved did not. So the European countries in Russia they’re still doing some business with Iran. But the United States has put pressure on them not to do business. So there’s no formal sanctions in place amongst law of these countries. But there are informal sanctions with United States heading the way a lot of banana oil I apologize for long set up. But the long set up is by way of saying the Iranians air feeling the pinch of these economic sanctions. And so they’ve stepped up their kind of aggressiveness with respect to checking shipping in the Persian Gulf in the Straits of Hormuz, which is where I think 70 80% of the world’s oil comes through that strait. And in fact they’ve We do not know this, but there’s a suspicion that they’ve been behind a couple of mines and bombs that have gone off in that area. And so this this was all the precursor for Trump, basically considering a military strike at one of these nuclear facilities where these defense slash nuclear facilities and apparently it was gonna happen, is professional dancer hawks in the administration hawks meeting more aggressive military, pro military people, you know, they were be. They said this was appropriate. This was measured. This was the way to go which show Iran that we mean business. But Trump called off last minute his explanation, and he actually said this in a public interview, which is also unusual. He said that he did not think it was proportionate, that the estimates were that about 100 25 Iranian civilians and military workers would be killed in the strike, and he thought that was too much, given what had happened. So it’s an interesting call, as Professor Madeira said, that this is for us. This is fascinating, right? Because after the fact, Nancy Pelosi, speaker of the United States House, said Trump couldn’t have done this without congressional authorization. But that is it would have been unconstitutional, right? Which is an interesting question, right? So we’re looking at this. It’s It’s an important event. There are lives involved. There’s the potential for escalation on. All of that is important. But from a theoretical perspective, we’re looking at and thinking, you know, it shows, you know, the limits of the president, his or herself negotiating executive agreements, right? That was, you know, the lack of a treaty here, The whole reason that Trump could kind of in the, uh, you know, this cooperative era brief cooperative error with Iran. Turmoil within the administration conflict within the administration. Says he. When the president wants to do something, he’s limited. You know, he’s limited by his campaign promises about not getting involved in foreign wars. You know, he’s limited by you know, the extent to which there is agreement within the administration on what to do. And then you’ve got this other actor Congress saying You shouldn’t do that. They’re the opinions of allies, all of this stuff, you know, politics is complicated, my friends, a za complex system. And we just find this fasting, this relative interplay of different actors, both within the federal government outside the federal government, including American opinion. World opinion. It’s all there, and it’s all on display here. So we just want to connect some of those dots for you and get you thinking about these things in those terms as well. So a similar but more domestic oriented, I say, similar in the sense that, uh, first of Daniel we were talking before class and the deportation situation in the United States is similar in the sense that there was descent sis within the administration on what to do and how to do it once again. It’s an example of an issue in which the conflict between state and federal government between the actors in the federal government, Congress, the courts, the executive role on display. So, Professor Dan, you’ve been following this one. I think, what’s going out of the deportation? Situates

[0:12:43 Speaker 2] So President Trump made an announcement that he would have raid, so he had basically a set of massive raids to deport once it close to a 1,000,000 undocumented immigrants. And it was interesting because of the last second it was called off last weekend. And so what’s interesting is that there is with the situation of the ran nobody knew about the attacks. We knew later on that it was called up, but this was a bit was this was a public announcement of what was gonna happen only or only port to be called off so that you have to situations with the president or where there is a very hard line stance taken only for it to be called off at the last second. It’ll be interesting to see what happens. Going forward again. You have the numerous newspaper articles talking about the situation at the border on and what’s going on there in terms of people, people being detained. So the immigration issue, specifically the idea of deportation. This is something that President Trump talked a lot about during the campaign has talked about a lot throughout his presidency. It’s gonna be interesting to see how this how this moves forward because I believe that while he has made these very strong stances, there are a lot of people saying, you know, basically holding back, pulling back on the reins, they know going to slow this down because there there are a lot of problems. This is a miss may look good, short term, but long term, this could create a much, much bigger problem that we’re ready. Then the nation’s ready to deal with.

[0:14:13 Speaker 0] I’ll go short on this one. I’m interested in the deportation issue. From a framing perspective is the media cover. There is a political issue, and I don’t mean to downplay the humanitarian side of this, but is a student of politics. I’m fascinated because on the one hand you have the president and the administration who are portraying deportation as a law enforcement issue. That is to say, there are people who have violated the country’s immigration laws. Who and the people who are targeted here are people who are in the administration’s eyes. In the eyes of the Immigrations and Customs Enforcement Agency are clear and repeat offenders who have not been responsive to your orders to show up in court to kind of go through the normal protocols of the immigration process. So there, in that sense, they’re clear offenders. And Trump has treated this as a pure law enforcement issue, right that they violated the law and, you know they’re in the country illegally and you can’t do that. We have process. We have a system, and to not enforce these laws is to invite all sorts of abuses in chaos and problems, right so that that’s one frame. That’s one way of thinking of the issue. The other frame is it. This is humanitarian issue. This is emblematic of a broken system. In other words, while there are laws in place, those laws are not properly enforced or not properly adjudicated. We don’t have the infrastructure to actually make them work, and in that sense, all you create is, you know, broken lives broken dreams of, you know it’s it’s connected to recent reports about these kind of tragic circumstances in detention centers. Now, on the border of you guys have probably heard about these things from media reports or social media reports. So which frame is correct now, By the way, I don’t I think both of these things can be true at the same time. I think they are undoubtedly true at the same time. But from a political perspective, you know, critics of the president would very much like to de emphasize the law enforcement frame and emphasize the broken system frame in the humanitarian frame. Whereas the president is trying desperately to get people to understand this in terms of law enforcement and that’s this is comin. It’s comin in American politics, where you have two competing sides in a democracy that are attempting to convince the American people that they’re framed. Their way of viewing the world is sort of more appropriate. So I’m am interested in this, and as I said, I have sympathy for both attempts to portray this. I think both of these competing ideals can in fact be true, and I’m just kind of watching to see where the American public goats on this. Speaking of American public, you have anything that on the deportation thing,

[0:16:59 Speaker 2] we’re just think about the competing frames. Another great example of this is the drug epidemic. Is it a issue of criminal issue, or is it a health issue? And it’s both. And the problem is, when it becomes both becomes very complicated toe what degree somebody be medicated or treated? What threat against somebody be punished? You are seeing some things come forward like drug courts, which are kind of trying to achieve both goals. But I think the idea of having these multiple friends what you see all the time within most policy issues, whether it be, would be about immigration. We’re talking about a drug addiction where we’re talking about energy policy. There’s always multiple frames of multiple ways of understanding these things and understanding which frame wins out plays a big role in dictating the future policy.

[0:17:51 Speaker 0] That’s exactly right. I mean, look, you know, we from going and I have talked about this class kind of globally a lot in the past few years, and, um, you know, one of the things we think is our obligations, Professors is to, you know, sort take into account. The fact that politics are complex on the different viewpoints can, in fact both be valid. And the question is, how do you navigate? How do you negotiate public policy? You know, settlements or agreements under those circumstances and conditions, particularly when both sides decides who adhere to one frame versus the other, so intense in their preferences, because really tricky. That’s kind of where we are in American politics. So with that, we’ll go to our third and final topic. We’re gonna talk about the Democratic debates. Now we’re gonna show a brief video that was prepared by time. It occurred to us that, you know, one of the utilities of the summer class, especially the year before the election year, is that you’re beginning to see you know, that the contours of the 2020 presidential election shape up. And so what? We’re going to show you missions about five minutes segment prepared by time on the Democratic candidates. So if nothing else out of this, you know, in the news number four segment, you’ll get a sense of who the Democratic candidates are when we come back after that, we’ll talk a little bit about the debate that they’re going or the debates. I should say, plural, that they’re going to engage in later this week so real quickly. Who’s who. On the Democratic side,

[0:19:13 Speaker 1] Democrats are lining up to run against Donald Trump. With 2020 election still a ways away, an unusually large number of candidates have announced they’re running or hinted strongly that they will. Here’s a look at some of the major names who have joined the race so far. Williamson is a self help author known for being Oprah Winfrey’s spiritual advisor. With no prior political experience, she is running a campaign calling for a moral and spiritual awakening in the United States. A former deputy district attorney and City Council member in California, Swallow was elected to the U. S House of Representatives in 2012. His campaign is focused on gun safety, including an assault weapons ban. A former state lawmaker, Ryan was elected to the U. S House of Representatives in 2003 after an unsuccessful challenge to Speaker Nancy Pelosi. In 2016 he announced a presidential run with an emphasis on manufacturing and trade policy. An attorney and law professor, Steve Bullock, was elected governor of Montana in 2012 and reelected in 2016. His campaign is focused on addressing money and politics and stressing his ability to reach out to red state voters on progressive issues. De Blasio served as public advocate for New York City before being elected mayor in 2013 and re elected in 2017. His campaign is based on addressing economic inequality, touting his achievements and adding universal pre K paid sick days and living wage legislation in the city. Michael Bennett served in the attorney general’s office under Bill Clinton and a superintendent of Denver schools before moving to the Senate in 2009. Moderate, known for his work on education and immigration reform, his campaign is focused on economic opportunity. A seven term senator from Delaware bite and served as vice president for two terms under Barack Obama, a centrist to stresses bipartisanship, he ran unsuccessfully for the Democratic nomination in 1988 in 2000. Harvard graduate and former Marine Seth Moulton has represented Massachusetts in the House since 2015. Member of a moderate fiscally responsible caucus, he is back challenges to Nancy Pelosi’s leadership in the past. Andrew Yang is a Silicon Valley entrepreneur who has worked in a number of successful startups. He is running a campaign based on out of the box ideas, like a universal basic income, a monthly check from the government sent to every adult. Aurora is a former City Council member from El Paso and three term member of the U. S House of Representatives. He first gained national attention when he ran unsuccessfully for the Senate against Ted Cruz. No. A former geologist and brewpub owner, Hickenlooper served two terms as mayor of Denver and two terms as governor of Colorado is campaigning as a moderate who can work together with Republicans to address issues like climate change and health care. A former member of the House of Representatives and two term governor, Washington State, Inslee is not as well known as some of the other candidates. But he hopes a strong campaign centred on bold action on climate change will help him break out of the pack. The former mayor of Burlington, Vermont, Sanders was the runner up in the 2016 Democratic presidential primary. He is running on an unapologetically liberal plan, including single payer health care and tuition free college. A former corporate lawyer and county attorney, Klobuchar was elected to the Senate in 2006 and has one of the highest approval ratings for a senator. She has said if she runs, she would stress her record of bipartisan cooperation. Former mayor of Newark, Booker has represented New Jersey in the Senate since 2013. His campaign is focused on an uplifting message of bringing Americans together. Mayor of South Bend, Indiana, since 2012. Who? The judge has an unusual resume for a presidential candidate, but he thinks his underdog status will help him if voters are looking for an outsider. Former Starbucks CEO had a long and successful career in business. He is now mulling a self financed run as a centrist independent focused on issues like the national debt. A former district attorney and state attorney general in California, Harris was elected to the Senate in 2016. Her campaign slogan for the People draws on her experience as a prosecutor, the former mayor of San Antonio and Housing and Urban Development Secretary Castro has an unusual resume for a presidential candidate, but he believes his arguments on hot button issues like immigration can help him break out. An Iraq veteran and former state lawmaker, Gabbert was the first Hindu elected to Congress. But her past opposition to gay marriage and interactions of Syrian dictator Bashar al Assad make her a long shot in the Democratic primary. A former member of the House from upstate New York, Gillibrand has moved to the left since taking Hillary Clinton’s old Senate seat in 2009. In announcing her run, she said it her experience as a young mom. As a law professor, Warren helped create the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau before joining the Senate in 2012. She’s long advocated for tougher rules on banks and corporations and pocketbook issues like student loan reform.

[0:24:54 Speaker 0] Well, if your head’s buzzing, you’re not alone. That’s a lot of Democratic candidates. One of the things we wanted to emphasize as we kind of tee this up is that this is unusual for those of you, and I assume this is most of you who are coming to a presidential election for the first time, maybe the second time, Um, having 23 24 declared candidates on one side is really pretty striking. The only thing that’s even remotely comparables. In 1972 where the Democrats had roughly a comparable number 7 17 to 23 or 24 cameramen exactly how many it was. Nothing else has been like this. And what I would suggest to you. And this is something we touch out a little bit when we get to the module. On nomination politics, Andi primary processes eyes that it’s emblematic of an era in which the political parties, formal political parties no longer control certainly do not dominate the selection of candidates. There’s a wonderful book called The United States of Ambition. It’s a little out of date now, but by a guy named Alan Ehrenhalt and in the United States of ambition, he has a simple question. He asks, who sent these guys, and he has a simple answer since they sent themselves. And that is a fundamental truth of American elections these days, which is the party’s cannot screen candidates out. Ask the Republicans after 2016 how successful they were in kind of controlling that process. I think the Democrats are in the same boat right now. So it’s a free for all begins in some sense Wednesday and Thursday of this week. I just got a couple of slides, were prepared real briefly. Teoh intro rode a Segway into the debates. If we can put the 1st 1 up, there’s gonna be two nights of debates. The first night they’re both gonna be in Miami. Both gonna be run by NBC or NBC News, MSNBC, the whole sort of NBC conglomerate. So with 23 or 24 Candidate, you might ask yourself, Well, how did they figure out who’s gonna be in this thing? They had a criteria by which he had a certain amount in the polls. National polls prior to the debate or if he raised a certain amount of money, showed a certain amount of support across the States. You crossed a threshold and gained access to these debates, and so 20 candidates met that threshold. And now those you know anything about news know that you can’t put 20 candidates on a single platform single stage in one night. It’s just gonna be It’s WrestleMania doesn’t even try to do that. All right, So, what do you do? Well, they randomly assigned 10 candidates tonight. One and 10 candidates tonight, too. So what you’ve got Night one, which is this Wednesday, June 26th. Are these 10 candidates? You guys take a look at the slide right here. See? Got. And this is a raid in where they’re going to be on the stage. So from 1 to 10 I believe that’s left to right, as you’re looking at of the candidates. All right, So you got de Blasio from New York City. Ryan Castro Booker, Warren Aurore Club HR, Gabbert, Endsley and Delaney. If you ask me about Delaney before that video, I just saw be staring at you numbly. So that’s night one and just too interesting thing here. Really? Elizabeth Warren, in terms of the polls, which we’ll get to in a few minutes, is the dominant player on night one. She’s it about 14 15% in the polls. 13 14 15%. No one else in this in this night. One array is is more than 5% of polls. All right, you’ve got Teoh Rourke. You’ve got Booker and Castro. So Castro Network, the to Texas candidates in this race. So it’s not that it’s not going to be interesting. But just by luck of the draw, Warren is not going to be there with Biden, Kamila Harris or Bernie Sanders, right? She’s kind of by herself. Does that mean she’s a target on night one? I don’t know. We’ll have to see. All right, so then that’s Wednesday night. Then we go the next slide night to night to you’re going to get Williamson. That’s the Oprah advisor. I’m looking forward to the real spiritual advice. Hickenlooper. We just like saying Hickenlooper here, Andrew Yang, who I was talking with, professor it down in front. I think Andrew Yang is a is sort of a long shot, breakout candidate, but break out of me is gonna get to 30%. But he’s a guy with a couple of issues, kind of future leaning universal income. I think it’s possible in debate format, he could stand out Buddha Chick who saw the flavor of the day Biden, Sanders, Harris. So that’s a really kind of interesting array of the center of the stage. Gillibrand, Bennett and Swalwell, right? So that’s night two. So you’re gonna get two nights of Democratic debate. Never seen anything like this. It’s very early. This is the first Democratic debate. There will be another one next month. So I get about a 30 you know, 30 Daybreak and there’s gonna be another one. The 2nd 1 will be in Detroit. This one’s in Miami. All right, so two nights, uh, in that lets there a couple of things we just wanted. Teoh address again on these slides if there’s only 20 candidates whose out, So you put the slide back up for who’s not gonna be there? Steve Bullock is actually governor of Montana and is sort of a glaring omission given who’s in the fact that Bullock isn’t in, You know, it’s his own fault. He knew the criterion didn’t make it. Seth Moulton way inm Assam and Mike Gravel or gravel. I’m not entirely sure my apologies to the former governor of Arkansas, not from Texas. So what do I care? Eso There’s four candidates are going to be excluded there already kind of whining about it, But again, you know, they knew what the standards were, and they failed to get there. And if you can’t be one of the top 20. You know, I don’t know how much sympathy I have for you at this point. All right? So that’s who’s not there now. Who’s gonna be asking questions? It’s not a town hall, even though is going to a lot of audience there. So you got Lester Holt, Savannah Guthrie, Chuck Todd, Rachel Maddow and Jose Diaz. Bald art. So, uh, and this represents the entire kind of array of the NBC news roster here. So the nightly news today meet the press, the Maddow Show and Noticias Telemundo. So a full array. I’m actually banking on the first candidate to speak some Spanish. I’m pretty sure Castro will get that in there. Ah, Rourke doesn’t actually speak Spanish. So far as I know, maybe he does.

[0:31:09 Speaker 2] I went for a war with her Oklahoma accent. It

[0:31:11 Speaker 0] will be good. Uh, so we’ve got all that going on now, Just again. On the subject of viewer advisories. How can you watch this? We’ve been talking about it for 10 minutes. Haven’t showed you exactly. You can watch it up on the present slide. You’ll be able to see where you can watch it. You can live stream it or watch on traditional television on broadcast on cable. All right, so it’s gonna be available. So that’s a 9 to 11. Eastern. So for those of you in the central time zone, I think there’s a few of you in the central time zone in this class that would be eight o’clock central to 10 o’clock. So two hours both nights, four solid summer hours of Democratic debate, excitement. It’s gonna be awesome. Okay,

[0:31:51 Speaker 2] no more MBA. Now it’s time to debate.

[0:31:53 Speaker 0] That’s right. Alright. And then you might be asking like Well, okay, see, you missed 20 candidates who is actually doing well final slide here. Let’s just put the current real clear politics average of polls. So this takes the last five national polls. So we’re not talking about Iowa or New Hampshire, South Carolina and talk about state specific pools of their own national polls and you could see the Joe Biden at right now a year out has ah, pretty sizable lead. Then you’ve got Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren. You got booted. Chichen Harris kind of running in that I guess if you got these his tears Biden sort of in his own Then you got Sanders and Warren. Then you got booted church and come up Kamala Harris and then Rourke, Booker Yang etcetera. All right, if you don’t have a bar here, that means you’re below 0.3%. And once again, I can only do so much with Power point. So that’s currently how much do debates bat matter at this point? Well, you know what we know from political sciences in the general elections, Debates don’t tend to be worth more than a point or two. First of all, the candidates tend to fight to something like a draw. And secondly, in a general election were all partisans released. Most of us are, so Democrats tend to say, the Democrat one Republican say the Republican one. And Independence, you know, split. If you do really well, then maybe there’s a marginal point or two you can gain, you know, by convincing some wayward partisans or independence that you’re the candidate in the primaries. However, there’s no party anchor. So these air basically, right now, you know, these candidates are appealing to Democrats, and there’s no reason Democratic voter should have a pre or any allegiance to Warren vs. Sanders versus by. There’s no party attachment that distinguishes these candidates. So what, you’re gonna watch? And this is part of the show said, Bring your popcorn. They’re gonna try to establish a brand within these debates that they have to give voters something Teoh Hold on to, you know, to put their hat on. Why? Why would I vote for Buddha? Check over Sanders or Harris over Booker. Or, you know, Biden. What’s the brand? What? What did I walk away with from these debates? And there are opportunities now two hours. You figure they’ll be some uncomfortable drug ads in the middle of these things somewhere, Right? So beyond that. So it’s two hours 60 minutes times to 120 minutes. Divide amongst 10 candidates at most. That’s 12 minutes of air time, probably less, Let’s say, 10. Yeah, questions and commercials. So let’s say 10 minutes, 10 minutes to establish your brand right, and you have to be responsive to questions. But you have to go beyond that and actually kind of identify. Are you the progressive? Are you the universal income person or the free college for everybody? Person Are you You know, the moderate, the progressive, You know, where are you On social issues? What’s your calling card? And you have to lay that down in this debate because you’re not gonna get many shots. Um, used to be that the early contests were really, really decisive, and they’re still important. So Iowa, New Hampshire, early in 2020 are gonna be big deals. But right now, there’s a sorting process, right? If you don’t make the cut in these debates, you’re not gonna track volunteers. You’re not contract money. And those things were necessary to be successful down the line. So that’s why the stakes are pretty high. And if you’re looking, if you’re asking, why are these Mork? And it’s unusual, The answer is yes. If you’re asking, is this process starting earlier than usual? The answer is yes. So it is a little unusual, But as I said, I’m kind of tired of the bachelorette and below deck. So I’m interested in you know, I can’t even get the Astros. So I’m interested in any kind of entertainment. This is entertainment, right? President Daniel.

[0:35:34 Speaker 2] I’ve gone through most of my Netflix show so no longer

[0:35:38 Speaker 0] that that Jennifer Aniston Adam Sandler one I just continue. Be fascinated by Adam Sandler’s ability to have girlfriends way above his station in his

[0:35:46 Speaker 2] I’m amazed that you still make movies. Get Waterboy Classic.

[0:35:50 Speaker 0] That’s good. I like Happy Gilmore, but of the First States isn’t bad either, that that’s not that little romantic,

[0:35:57 Speaker 2] but I think I think he’s doing the same thing. Eddie Murphy did make one great movie and they

[0:36:02 Speaker 0] build stuff, But I’m jealous, by the way. I’m not ragging on Adam Sandler. He has a light that I think we all aspire to you, sir.

[0:36:09 Speaker 2] But again, if you look at this, I was looking at this. They have enough to feel to n b a team not to MBA starting five, but to NBA’s tapes are. So this is a huge amount of the president talked about this and you said the same thing going on. Going on with Republican 2016 is the reason why you have so many candidates partly is because things have changed. The nature in terms of communication has changed with the wood. The 24 hour news cycle will Twitter, with all these ways, directly get out to individuals that the candidates don’t of the work of the parties to get out. They can’t find sometimes outlet to to reach their audience. And if you look at these, these these candidates, you could almost argue. But there many of our kind of like boutique candidates that there therefore very represent a very specific group and trying to get trying to get the word out. No, they probably won’t win, but a let me make sure that our issues are being brought out. But I also think one of the major things to be aware of really over the next year, so as we see this play out, is I expect things that are outside of the campaign to really dictate what happens some type of shock to the system, whether it be a really bad hurricane season, which will lead to more support for those who want to do something regarding climate change, whether it be sometime economic shutdown, which would again benefit somebody like Senator Elizabeth Warren, I could see these some something outside is gonna happen outside. This isn’t gonna happen. I think that is what that is. What really shake things up and push people out Now I think by the time he will go to the polls. You won’t have 24. He probably might be down to maybe 16. There will be a bunch people little drop out on and in time it will make sense. But right now it’s like Bidens and lead. In many cases, it’s like it’s Biden’s game to lose, and he seems to find a way to do it. But expect everybody to try to begin to get their sound bite and somebody get the catchphrase in. Uh, it’s gonna be fun. And, uh, yeah, I think you have something particular about this. Regard the catchphrases things to look out for.

[0:38:29 Speaker 0] I did. I have made available to you because we care about you, the consumer, a Democratic candidate bingo card. So if you weren’t intending, are watching this because you just didn’t quite know how to structure it. You got a bingo game Now that you can play actually was done by a friend of mine, high school friend Beth Beth Wolf Ernsberger. It’s great name. She went out with one of my best friend in high school, and you know we’re Facebook friends or whatever, but she she does a freelance artist and cartoonist and she just for publications in Boston. And so she sent this out the other day and I told her I was going to set my class up with it. So you guys can sit in view of the comfort of your own home or dorm or wherever you happen to be, play along with some good spaces on I like the The man interrupts Woman Yes, card. I thought that was pretty good. I like the sweating profusely. Those are all good spaces to have. And you got your free Democratic space in the middle there, So, uh oh, yeah, just, you know, enjoy it. Look, we’re in politics for the entertainment value in a lot of ways, and this is going to be very entertaining. I’ll close with one substantive kind of observation least, hopefully substantive. I think one of the interesting dynamics in this process unfolds is the extent to it’s the Old Democratic Party, the party that was established during the New Deal that was labor unions and white working class, some racial and ethnic minority support white Catholics, you know, the White South. This is a party that doesn’t really exist anymore. That’s not the Democratic Party of Today, but Joe Biden. To the extent that that old coalition could be resurrected, Joe Biden is a guy that might be able to do that. I’m not convinced that coalition can be resurrected. I’m not sure that the inherent tensions between, you know, stay lower class white Southerners, lower lower status workers, white workers and white liberal progressives and African Americans and Hispanics and Asians. I’m not sure those coalition tensions can be reconciled, but it’s interesting to watch a candidate like Joe Biden who is moderate on a lot of issues. Who does have credibility, you know, is a guy from Scranton, Pennsylvania, originally, who’s, you know, makes his home in Delaware. Can he bring that sort of blue collar sensibility that worked for Democrats in the thirties, forties fifties and sixties onward? Can he reinvigorate that, Or is that party hopelessly dead? Right? And it’s now, you know, kind of the next generation Obama coalition, driven by young people by millennials bi racial ethnic minorities by LGBT community, etcetera. That’s attention in the Democratic Party that we’re watching right now. It will be interesting tonight, or I guess, Wednesday night Thursday, watch the debates and see, as you’re listening to issues and appeals kind of ask yourself what kind of voter they’re reaching out to because that’s that’s where the real action is right now. And the different candidates of place bets on who they think they can taken, kind of locked down and speak to in the context of politics in 2020. All right, so with that, I think we’re done for the week. All right, so we’ll be back with a little retrospective. Probably. I think we got

[0:41:33 Speaker 1] more in

[0:41:34 Speaker 0] the news you’ve got far is the last one Street the last one, So again avail yourselves of office hours. Feel free to communicate with this. We’re enjoying this semester. Hope you guys are enjoying this semester in the summer and we’ll see you next time, right